100% return, by the end of 2009

Understandably, nobody to date has ever put a date limit on the "100% return" objective. Clearly we still don't know what's viable, but surely we need to stick some kind of stake in the ground, even if we are forced to move it when new information becomes available?

So, I'm proposing "by end of 2009". Possibly it should be less, possibly it should be more, it's an initial stab at defining time limit.

[addition] Thinking more, that is not the complete definition. 100% with or without interest? And in what currency (or at what exchange rate?. If without interest, what about inflation?

So: 100% in real terms (inflation-adjusted) and in the original deposit currency, by the end of 2009. Whether that is realistic, we do not know. Expecting interest might be going to far, or maybe not - equivalent to some base rate maybe?

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Who or what dictates the terms to enable a time limit to be set?

There are too many variables in the equation that do not permit a time limit to be set in achieving the Mission. DAG simply does not have all the cards to be able to define a time scale of x months.

Put another way, if for example a bomb were to be set to go off within 12 months unless a specific objective had been achieved, then that immediately sets the time frame in which to accomplish the objective. If the objective is not achieved then we would be left with sorting out the damage done by the bomb going off.

But what confronts us is a bomb with a fuse that could be lit by any one or a number of people or events. That bomb could go off at any time -- and the DAG could be accused of having caused it to explode.

Our only option is to follow a strategy & tactics that seeks to achieve the Mission as soon as possible, and to review both strategy & tactics in the light of a changing scenario brought about by unfolding events.

Posted by Lucky Jim on Sat, 31/01/2009 - 21:33
Sorry LJ but I can't agree.

Sorry LJ but I can't agree. When John F Kennedy said in 1961 that they would put a man on the moon by the end of the decade, there were at least as many variables, I would suggest far more variables than we are dealing with here. He didn't say they would do it "one day", he didn't say that they would try, he didn't say "maybe". The DAG needs clear objectives, otherwise it will be a maybe, try or one-day thing.

Posted by ng on Mon, 02/02/2009 - 15:23
God alone knows how long...

Yes ng, Kennedy did say "before the end of the decade" but he didn't say before the end of the week, or the month or the year. Why not? Because he knew it would be impossible to put a man on the moon in such a timescale. Within the bounds of what was known at the time he was advised by a variety of relevant experts that it might be possible to do it within a timescale of 10 years.

So let's take a look at a few scenarios that make it so difficult to be able to give a time frame to accomplish DAG's Mission.

  1. DAG's Mission could be achieved within a very short time scale if the IOM Government were to obtain a loan. If HMG were to agree to a loan next week the Mission will have been accomplished in 7 days..... leaving just x time to pay out.

  2. if by 19 February the IOM Government sticks with an SoA that doesn't assure 100% return of depositors' money, then DAG's Mission will be set back; the Bank will go into liquidation & the compensation scheme will be triggered..

  3. If the DAG then pledges to fight on to achieve its Mission, it is likely that Plan B will be legal proceedings. DAG would not be suing to win a principle -- it would be suing to get back ALL deposits. So that determines who DAG should sue... not much choice is there ?

    Legal opinion would say 'your chances of winning are x%'. If x is anything less than, say, 50 would the DAG take the risk of losing & having to pay the huge costs?
    BUT supposing DAG is advised 'you have a good case against the IOM Government (or HMG)' and supposing we accept advice that it will take 2,3 or more years to get a judgement, & supposing DAG decides to set up a large legal fund,....& supposing DAG wins the case... What will happen? the defense will lodge an appeal! Then it will go on...& on....& on....
    So you see there really are too many variables & unknowns to be able to decide today 'it will take x years to achieve DAG's Mission'

However, please don't let me put off anyone having a go at trying to put a timeframe on it if it is considered that this really is an important task to undertake at this point in time.

PS: If I had a gun held to my head I would say: "before the end of the decade"

Posted by Lucky Jim on Tue, 03/02/2009 - 00:18
LJ please, skip the detail

LJ please, skip the detail and put your choice of deadline on the return of 100% funds? The deadline that you are prepared to work towards, thats all.

Posted by ng on Tue, 03/02/2009 - 01:38
I have done so !

ng ... you put a gun to my head so I say: "before the end of the decade" :(

Posted by Lucky Jim on Thu, 05/02/2009 - 22:55