Updated Table 11 after including JLs ' 6 monthly Report' data
Hi There,
Cover Note to go with Updated Table No. 11 based on JLs ‘ 6 monthly report’ of 9.1.2011 + Jan figures from JLs
The updated Table 11 (attached) takes into account the following;
· A return of 84.95% from KSFIOM loan book
· A return of 75.0% from E&Y (KSFUK) based on £246.1m
· The increase in the Liquidation costs by the JLs by £7.8m. But note they have added the £7.8m onto the current spend of £15.486m not the previous £18m spend envisaged.
To me (as I was already using their £18m estimated costs within my Table 11) it meant adding £5.286m costs into my Table 11.
· Took into account the 31.1.2011 figures given out by the JLs. Updated my Table 11 accordingly and have now updated it again using the information contained within the ‘ 6 monthly report’ of 9.1.2011.
· So in essence these changes mean an increase in my last estimate from 88.66p/£ lowest estimate to 94.01p/£ as a new lowest estimate. Quite an increase for all of us if estimates are met. Note the JLs newest estimates go from 91.4p/£ up to 97.7p/£.
· If you then add the two following possible scenarios, one already shown in my Jan 2011 figures update;
o Firstly take the difference between;
o £246.1m x 84% = £206.724m
o £246.1m x 75% = £184.575m
o Difference of = £ 22.149m x 100 divide by £905m = 2.447p/£
o Then went for a 93.176% return on the KSFIOM loan book (£416m x 93.173% = £387.599m - £353.392m (84.95%) = £34.207m. £34.207m x 100 divided by £905m = 3.780p/£)
It would mean, if also linked to the 84% from KSFUK a return of around 94.01 + 2.447 = 96.457 + 3.780 = 100.237p/£.
So all in all the JLs predictions and my own again fairly close;
o JLs between 91.4 – 97.7%
o My comparison estimates are between 94.01 – 100.237p/£. Although I must say that I do not see a return on our KSFIOM loan book of 93.173% (JLs upper estimate) I would think around 90% max, hope I’m wrong, as that brings my top upper estimate back to 98.778p/£.
· Would also mention the JLs wording of hope to pay further interim dividends ‘in the region of 18p to creditors in 2011’. My listing shown below shows a hoped for estimated return of up to 18.8p/£ during 2011. But that assumes the 84.95% back on our loan book during 2011, the 95.171% back in interest due during 2011, the 75% (based on £246.1m) back from E&Y (KSFUK) at two dividends of 5% back to our JLs in June & Dec 2011 and allowing for an estimated cost of £2.5m paid out in Liquidation costs during 2011. And nothing back from ‘Parental Guarantee, Litigation or anything back from IOMG, UK Government or the large Life Companies.
o My thoughts on possible returns, based on my Table 11 are;
o Total so far 61.10p/£
o June 2011; 11.0p
o Dec 2011; 7.8p
o June; 2012 5.0p
o Dec 2012; 5.0p
o June 2013; 0.0p
o Dec 2013; 0.0p
o June 2014; 0.0p
o Dec 2014; 4.11p
o June 2015; 0.0p
o Dec 2015; 0.0p
o June 2016; 0.0p
o Dec 2016; 0.0p
o Total 94.01p/£
So in conclusion I was most impressed by the cash back from loan book returns in January 2011. Delighted at the increase expected from the KSFIOM loan book and the increase in the base figure by E&Y (KSFUK) to £246.1m, including the ‘back money due of £21.783m. All excellent, just need some more info on the ‘set off’ situation, more info on the (now) 9 large loans and final settlement on the £15m unresolved (plus the £2m unclaimed). And really just forget at present anything back from the ‘Parental Guarantee’ until we get concrete confirmation that our claim is accepted and then wait again for quite some time to see what that means if anything.
I will update my list of questions once more, send them off to the JLs and hope for a response. Will keep you all informed.
As always,
Take Care, and God Bless,
Gordon 45
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| 2011.2.19 - 2nd draft finalised Table 11.xls | 203.5 KB |
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you as ever for your
Thank you as ever for your efforts and taking the time to communicate your work to the rest of us not blessed with such skills as neccessary to interpret the figures.
thank you
Thank you Gordon. As well as all your hard work, there's a ray of hope for June this year when bills for the flooding repairs to my house fall due. The insurers won't pay due to non-occupation for 60 days. How do others find an insurer for an unoccupied furnished house?
Gordon's Predictions
Thank you so much Gordon for all your hard work and effort. Your reports/breakdowns help me and no doubt many others enormously.
You are brilliant.
Great, Gordon
Another big round of thanks for a sterling job on our behalf, Gordon.
Encouraging news and let's hope it continues that way, although it seems we still have three years (?) left to endure of this nightmare....
Potential returns
This goes to show the KSF IOM had been an intrinsically solvent bank before they locked a substantial part of their funds with KSF UK.
Contrast the likely return of KSF UK with the expected return from KSF IOM. If KSF IOM had managed its own loans and if they had not entrusted this to KSF UK we would have seen a return of over 100% ie we would have seen some of the lost interest!
Since I am not privy to the behind the screen machinations in the IOM prior to the fateful day in October 2008 I can only assume that senior management at the KSFIOM may not have mismanaged the bank as was claimed by some who, I remember, called for "lynchings" and who were extremely angry when the JL's employed their services in managing the loan book.
It is time we recognize this reality.
KSF UK is another matter and if this figure of 75% is correct this should correctly expose their senior management (I believe many were from Iceland) to severe criticism. From media reports it would appear that KSF UK lent large sums of money to connected parties. It is beyond belief that this is still not illegal!
I suppose the banks get a chance to write their own laws!
By the way excellent work by Gordon!
@reality
We are all pretty much agreed that KSFIoM was a solvent bank - the upstreaming to KSF UK was necessary to invest monies that could not otherwise be invested in the tiny Isle of Man. Nonetheless, the directors of the bank put profit before prudence and continued to upstream this money without ring-fencing when the writing was already on the wall for Icelandic banks. It may not have been so clearly evident to punters scattered all over the world, but it was the job of high-ranking overpaid banking executives to keep their eyes on the ball and take proper measures to safe-keep the hard-earned monies of their trusting customers. I for one would not have given Doherty the time of day let alone keep him on as an advisor in the bank to cover-up any possible misdoings; it was simply not appropriate for the man responsible for doling-out deceitful promises to new and old customers to keep his position. End of.
Over 55% of the KSFIoM loan book has yet to be repaid over the next 4 years or more and yet with just a third of the track behind us we have predictions exceeding 90% already. The reality is no one knows who, when, and how much any mortgagor is going to repay over the coming years. Perhaps the UK Adminstrators are being prudent and cautious in their estimates at this relatively early stage in their own liquidation despite the size of their loan book.
If I lived on an estate with 10 other mortgagors then unless we all worked for the same firm, in the same job, I would not measure my ability to repay my own mortgage based on what my neighbours were doing, yet that seems to be the method used by Spratt & Simpson to make their guesses on our returns. There is no independent assessment available to us because all the information we glean comes from the same source - PwC's liquidators. I would be very surprised indeed if Andy's predictions strayed far from the JLs.
Borrowers from KSFIoM with credible investments have been able to shift their debts onto other lenders and repay their loans early which is great, but their early repayments are covering-up the non-payers - those with less enviable investments who are deferring their debts into the future - and we cannot know whether their debts will eventually be repaid in full or in part (large or small) or not at all. (If anyone does have inside knowledge that the best part of £230,630,000 will definetly be repaid to the loan book over the next four years please tell me and alleviate my concern.) The JLs can continue to fudge the figures as they see fit; to predict and re-predict every month; to defer loans into the future without explanation; to drop £4m from the UK claim with narry a word; and in short to manage expectations for as long as it takes, but I still won't believe a word of it until the cheque hits my bank.
Ice
@Gordon 45 - Thanks
Looks promising and giving a bit of hope. Thankyou for all your man hours spent making these guesstimates.
Thank you Gordon
As always, a big Thank You from myself. I'm sure your pursuit of the truth has helped galvanise the liquidators into liquidating and kept them on their toes. Thank you Sir!