UPDATED SCHEDULE OF POTENTIAL RECOVERIES FOLLOWING JLS RELEASE OF JULY 31 CASH AND LOAN BOOK NUMBERS.
Hello to all,
I have updated my schedule of likely potential recoveries following the recent release of the July 31, 2010 cash and loan book numbers together with the PWC accompanying notes.
This schedule is attached as a pdf file.
As you will see, I am predicting a range of dividend outcomes of between 89.02p and 99.55p in the £. This range is more than the 85.3p and 95.7p in the £ shown in the PWC July 30, 2010 Report to Creditors.
This difference is due to two factors. Firstly, we now have another month (and a good month) of KSF IOM loan book receipts. Secondly, and more importantly, I have taken a more optimistic view of recoveries for the KSF IOM loan book, my best case is 100% recovery versus the PWC high outcome case at 90% and my conservative case is 80% recovery versus the PWC low outcome case at 70%.
Whilst no attempt has been made to predict the timing of future dividends, as far as the short term outlook is concerned, I would expect at least another 5p in the £ later this year (£45.4 million is needed in cash to fund this 5p in the £ dividend and the free cash is currently £35.1 million [£39.6 million from my schedule less future costs of liquidation of £4.5 million] which I believe PWC will hold back). So we are almost at the 5p in the £ point already.
However, If the catch up recovery of £20.34 million is received from KSF UK and the KSF IOM loan book performs as expected (£36.9 million in repayments still due in 2010) then I think we could be looking at another 10p in the £ later this year.
Regards.
Yorkist
Thank You
Thank you Yorkist, for all your efforts. They are very much appreciated.
SIMPLE SUMMATION JULY 2010
SIMPLE SUMMATION: JULY 2010
For those folks who want a simple appraisal of the July 2010 Cash & Loan book situation here goes:
• July brought cumulative repayments of the KSF IoM loan book up to £122m and thereby reduced its remaining value to £294m from the original £416m held in Oct 2008. The JLs have surreptitiously reduced their estimated loan book recoveries (see yorkist) but no one can truly predict this sum – or know when it might be realised.
• The years that pass before the loan book is ‘repaid’ are now predicted to be half those expected, thereby reducing the interest payable over time and lowering the total return. I believe that 85% (£354m) is as good a guess as any to go with right now and with 29% returned already, that leaves £232m outstanding. To retrieve 85% of the loan book by March 2014, the rate of return would need to average some £5.3m per month.
• The larger part of these repayments is for the benefit of all creditors, but by virtue of ‘set-off’, some of this money brings a 100% return to those creditors who were depositor/borrowers. During July about 24% of the loan book returns were utilised in this way.
• It would appear that following the recent appeal made in the UK regarding ‘set-off’, several depositor/borrowers elected to apply this provision during July which brought about a £4m reduction in loan book value as their deposits off-set their borrowings; these creditors would have gained 100% value of their deposits by way of set-off. Hopefully, the surge in set-off payments was a direct result of the court case and we won’t see quite the same effect again…
• During July the benefit from foreign exchange movements reduced by £300k; this continues a trend seen over the past several months and is the expected result of mortgagees paying off their loans and thereby exposing less money to exchange rate differentials. Nevertheless, forex movements in our favour still provides a huge £13.9m contribution to the overall fund.
• The total correction due to forex, set-off, and write-off dropped from +£700,000 in June 2010 to -£3,600,000 in July 2010 – a reduction of £4.3m. It may appear that the loan book has been repaid by this amount, but this particular reduction does not provide a general benefit, rather a collective loss due primarily to set-off as mentioned above.
• The JLs stated in their last Creditors Report that they anticipate the majority of the loan book to be repaid by March 2014; this situation has been evident in their tables for months, but we now have this expectation in writing. We can assume some shuffling of loan repayment schedules to occur over the coming months as borrowers improve their position by taking advantage of more favourable loans with which to pay-off their debts to Kaupthing.
• The second source of our monies is KSF UK and very little has changed there since the JL’s last report. As expected, KSF UK paid their last dividend based on £205m; this means a larger back-payment will be due in the future (probably – and hopefully – the very next dividend). My personal opinion is that KSF UK won’t make any corrective payment until they have amended their report to UK creditors. The Creditors Report from KSF UK administrators is due in November and they have some serious back-peddling to do to correct their previous enthusiastic, but very wrong predictions. They must hope that KSF UK creditors have short memories…
• The evidence points to a better return in a much shorter period than we first imagined and I feel that the JLs could target a total return of 60% for the year’s end. This would indicate a dividend of 8.9% in December – a good result without scraping the barrel. Just a personal interpretation mind.
Ice
Great synopsis
Great synopsis Ice, thanks a million! All your efforts on this fiasco is very much appreciated. Thank you very much.
Thanks Ice
You probably can't imagine how useful your posts are to people like me; there is no-way I could have gleaned that information from the KSFIOM Bank July 2010 Cash and Loan Book declaration.
Thanks Ice for the simple
Thanks Ice for the simple summary. I must admit I do struggle to undetstand all the jargon sometimes so your postings are brilliant.
I really really hope we might get to 60% by Christmas.Keeping fingers crossed
In whose favour exactly was that, Ice?
Can Ice please explain to what extent foreign exchange movements are 'in our favour'?
By 'our' I mean those of us whose deposits were in United States Dollars.
Through my eyes the forex movements look to be extremely not to my benefit.
In fact, fobbing us off with a devalued currency (sterling) feels distinctly like justice heaped upon injustice.
Are you taking too narrow a view?
@ianhkhi
Clearly, my remarks concerned the repayment of monies to the loan book and had nothing whatsoever to do with the currency anyone chose to deposit their savings in (a matter of personal choice).
Those who chose to take mortgages in currencies other than sterling are effectively boosting returns to the loan book from which all creditors benefit. If forex movements were turned through 180 degrees then the loan book would be £27,800,000 lighter than it is now irrespective of the currency in which creditors receive their dividends.
You my friend are a victim of a bank that went down the tubes, just like the rest of us, and no matter how much you wish it otherwise you placed your monies in dollars and the world turned. You can't get more money back into the coffers through beneficial currency movements and then complain that those same movements have a negative impact on your own little world.
There's a big difference between being focused and being narrow-minded; my focus was on explaining repayments in simple terms for many fellow-depositors who find these matters less than easy, whereas you just want to have a go when the situation doesn't suit your exact circumstances. I shouldn't even have bothered to give your comment credibility by this reply, but now I say 'whatever' pal.
Ice
@ianhkni
What Ice and Gordon45 do is an excelent objective assesment of the moment, the days of the Forex rate in this are long dead. I lost about 20% through it, probably a lot more with consequential losses, so did others. It's over. A bank group went bust and that's the result. At the time of deposit I'll hazard a guess that your deposit was worth less than the 1.60 that has been imposed. Should the SOA have won the day that rate would have been 1.40. Either way is academic because what we have is what we live with. It's no point bleeding about the loss that clever (we thought) hedging would acrue, KSF group went broke. As Ice so tersly says, we're all in it together now and currency movements are helping us get a little close to the magic 100%, so win some lose some I'm afraid.
Perhaps what is more relevant is who and why DAG authorised £350,000+ of legal costs that cost all foreign currency holders at least 10%? Because as things stand it's likely that we will all now have to pay a contribition to that cost like it or not, and believe me I do not like it at all.
Because it was the right thing to do at the time.
It doesn't matter that Saran Chantry was out of control, it doesn't matter that the legal profession were, unsurprisingly overselling their stinking overpaid asses. It doesn't matter that the IOM gov't was lying. It doesn't matter that the IOM courts bent over backward. It doesn't matter that you and people like the 'BOC' HNW plonker (Ahh - I've remembered her name 'Adrienne') thought you that it was possible to sit down and have lunch with the Devil whilst they guy was lying to your face.
It doesn't matter that the 'terrible twins offer to buy the loan book was actually a reasonable one - because the IOM gov't would have vetoed it, and PWC supported them because they would have lost money.
It does matter that the stinking corrupt financial cowboys still have their unjust rewards. It does matter that some people believe, and that includes the RC, believe that their way of thinking has succeeded in going unchallenged.
The sort of debacle we suffered was a rip-off, was a failure of the professed aims of the system.
The system stinks expat. And as one American president said: All that is required for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.
You called it incorrectly, Sarah Chantry called it correctly but didn't have the style to follow through.
Most people watched the IoM government orchestrate a 'titanic' situation for their own benefit.
It was ugly, and it situation derived from ugly behaviours going untrapped. And that it why it is necessary to 'Do the right thing.' That is unless you are just playing your corner.
And the lesson is ....?
And the lesson is........
No reply expat?
yes well. I'm talking to myself I suppose, but I still act to balance the system on a personal level. And what will you do now expat? Enjoy your gains? You still have a considerable percentage.
We know that the IoM is stinking cesspit of 'sin verguenza' arbitrage. The whores of the IoM, not much different to the whore of the UK, and the US, would do anything without scruple to add to their margin.
Human nature?
How do you seek to improve on the outcomes of human nature?
How long are we going to suffer this?
Everyone of you has the capacity to challenge these bastards, their comfortable little lives. I expect you to do so. But to do so so you have to bear in mind the repercussions of your individual actions.
And nobody talked about this.
But I think that each of you is thinking in parochial terms.
The IOM government won because it played this card. What surprise. But did the majority see it, or just take advantage of it? This is the lesson. Adrienne do you get it now?
What a stinking mess was the Kaupthing IoM. The whores that directed it ( Yes you Adrian you c**t - lying bastard) still need to be taken down. And they won't be. Resolving these things is a personal thing: there is a need to confront every action that is corrupt. Your best friend isn't your best friend unless he is honest.
But it won't happen.
We will all be a little bit more careful now, as Mr Aspden suggested ( what a intellectual pygmy ) when he incorrectly posited that banks constituted an investment.
Hang you head in shame, everybody.
Shame kills. I hope it kills the government of the IoM and the directors of the KSF(IoM).
What a challenge! Little by little. Every accommodation is an abomination.
-
MONEY WINS
Having sent many thousands of emails to the population of the IOM with no result. Having made and sent various videos around the world on Youtube, having pestered newspapers MPs and other aspects of the media. I have come to my senses. Those who have money, WIN We haven't got any . End of story.
Takers win, givers lose.
Takers win and givers lose; givers can live with both takers and givers, but takers cannot live with other takers - they can only survive by living off givers. There appear to be more givers than takers, but then again, there are a lot more losers than winners, so takers must take a disproportionate share of everything. The curious question is: Why do givers pack their chattels into like institutions and how do takers instinctively know how to turn that to their own advantage by helping themselves to the givers misfortune? I am pleased to hear that you have 'come to your senses' conned, you put in a sterling (magnificent!) effort, but no one truly gives a rats arse about our misfortune and that is just a fact of human behaviour- '...how terrible, glad it wasn't me.'
Ice
Great work
Thank you for this information it does help those of us that think all bankers are now corrupt. It could be that if your best figures should every come true and we get 100% back, then surely the bank should have been saved. But I think the 100% is highly unlikely but nevertheless, thank you and Gordon45 for your sterling workouts.
Hi yorkist - re your dividend update
Hi There,
Once again when you post your data is succunct (not like mine) and very good - so thanks for that.
We do differ in that I perhaps tend to be more pessimistic or cautious than yourself, and perhaps that's one of my failings. I just like to hone in on what I think we can get back and then if and when it goes higher - brilliant, rather than become deflated.
So please do not take umbrage if I give a few figures based on my thoughts.
Firstly I have finished my draft table 9, I have almost finished my list of questions to go to the JLs, done my Table 9 cover note and just finished my thoughts on the July maturity ladder and cash statements from the JLs. So once I get questions answered/part answered (hopefully by one of the JLs) I will post my table 9 - 34 pages long now, as I changed the format to include the monthly data as from Jan 2010 (in an attempt to make data more accurate), and I want to show continuity from the very beginning. And then as always try, and guestimate re returns by date and by amount.
So just a few genuine thoughts on your data.
I currently get 83.9p/£ lower estimate taking KSFIOM loan book at 75%. Also taking returns from E&Y (KSFUK) at 65% based on £205m. Not happy to go to £250.2m until confirmed by JLs. The JLs as you rightly say have lowered their thoughts on returns from KSFIOM loan book from between (83.92% - 100%) to between (75.21% - 89.59%). If I take the lower estimate of 75.21% it raises my lower limit to 84.9p/£ as against your own 89.02p/£. If I then go to the £250.2m at 78% from KSFUK and go to 89.59% ecovery on the KSFIOM loan book I get 97.39%. So not that far apart really.
I also agree regards another dividend in Dec, as you say already have £35m lying there plus I think at least another £10.25m ex KSFUK in Dec = £45.25m = 5p/£. you then add returns ex KSFIOM loan book for Aug/Dec + hoped for £20.34m in back payments ex KSFUK and as you say 10p/£ could be on the cards.
So, thank you for your excellent info and deductions, hopefully my data will expand on the info you have given and show what I think the actual returns could be over the next 4 - 5 years.
Again great stuff,
Gordon 45
Great Work
Well done. Much appreciated. I think We should have had Gordon 45 as the liquidator - would have made a much better job than the two doing it now!!!!!
Thanks Gordon and Yorkist
Just returned from holiday to read your heartening analyses.
Thank you so much. They are more rejuvenating than the holiday !!
Rob and Wendy
Well done. That is good news
Well done. That is good news and much appreciated.
Great work - thanks for
Great work - thanks for sharing your thoughts!
looking good
The figures are looking good. Thank you again for your estimates. I note that there are no projected timings on dividends but if we do receive another this year what is your guess p/pound - or is it too soon to ask?