Update on E&Y (KSFUK) Website

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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Posted: Tue, 12/06/2012 - 11:03

Hi Folks,

As we keep waiting for the monthly update from the JLs and the expected payout by around 15.6.2012, I keep checking both bank websites for news.

I noticed the other day on the KSFUK website an update on their home page. I normally checkout their ‘Customer and Creditor Information’ page, and only check out the Home page occasionally.

But I did see the undernoted and do not think anyone has posted anything about it so far. If they have and I am duplicating info I apologise.

'Update on claims filed by Kaupthing Singer & Friedlander Limited in the winding-up proceedings of Kaupthing hf

The Joint Administrators of KSF advise that they have entered into a settlement agreement with Kaupthing hf. (Khf) in respect of the claim filed against Khf as a general unsecured claim in the winding-up proceedings in the amount of £695,308,475. In accordance with the Settlement Agreement, gross claims amounting to £510,186,976 have been agreed in the amount of £302,163,012. Components of the claim which could not be resolved at this time, with a gross value of £185,121,499, have been separated from the original claim and issued two new claim references by Khf. The Joint Administrators of KSF are now working with the Khf Winding-up Committee to settle the remaining components of the KSF claim and are unable to provide any indication of the timing or level of likely recovery in relation to the claims against Khf at this time'.

This seems to me to be the outcome of the talks spoken about in the E&Y (KSFUK) April Progress Report. When they reported that a substantial part of the claim had been agreed. What E&Y did not say was, yes, it has been agreed, but only 59.225% has been accepted and agreed. So it would appear to me, that KSFUK will only get back a proportion of the £302,163,012.

It leaves the unagreed balance of £185,121,499 to be agreed. But if they only managed to get 59.225% agreed of the, you would think, easier part, it would suggest that at best they can only hope for the same percentage on the £185.121m.

That being the case we could expect a maximum of £302.163 + £111.072m = £413.235m, as an agreed total of the £695.308m. Up until now the returns banded about (a long time ago) suggested a return of at best 25% of any agreed figure. So 25% of £413.235m = £103.308m

That would mean a return to E&Y (KSFUK) of £103.308m to be divided amongst an approximate total of £4.5bn unsecured creditors = 2.295%.

Convert that back to us, based on an agreed figure of £246.1m = £5.648m. That would mean an extra 0.624p/£. Hope I am totally wrong with my assumptions, but that is what I think might come back based on what we know and my ongoing guestimates.

So as we keep saying, ignore anything coming back from E&Y (KSFUK) based on money due back from Kaupthing hf until we see figures and the same with our Parental Guarantee.

The other very disturbing ongoing news is obviously the Euro Zone, especially Spain. As a large part of our property loans are based overseas. And if you look at it in currency terms, only around 33% is due back in GBP. The other 66% is a mixture of Euros and USD with a very small % due in Swiss Francs. And of that 66% two thirds is due back in Euros. So it suggests to me anyway that most of our overseas properties with loans are in the Euro Zone – with probably a large part of that in Spain. So the current situation will have some effect on our hoped for returns. Will get back to this when we look at the monthly figures when they are issued.

But, on a bright note we will have 90.8 – 91% back very shortly – thank goodness. And we will get more beyond that.

Take Care,

Gordon 45

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Updated estimates from KSF-UK (E&Y)

  • anrigaut
  • 19/10/08 30/10/09
  • a depositor
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  • Thu, 21/06/2012 - 11:22

New update on KSFUK home page:

"Update to estimated range for total dividends to non-preferential creditors

As a result of the resolution of a number of significant issues in the administration, including the recent settlement agreement with Kaupthing hf, the Administrators advise that, based on current forecast recoveries from the banking book, prudent estimates of realisations from other assets, maximum estimates of unsecured claims and current market conditions not deteriorating, they currently estimate that total dividends to non-preferential creditors should be in the range of 82.5p to 86p in the £. The Administrators would stress that this estimate could be lower or higher as there are significant issues which could impact either future realisations or the level of claims from creditors and thus the estimate is indicative and cannot be relied upon.

As previously reported, it is the intention of the Administrators to pay further dividends at regular intervals, subject to consultation with the Creditors' Committee and the level of distributable funds making it cost effective to do so. The quantum of each dividend will be dependent upon the level of distributable funds at the time of dividend and, consequently, we are not able to provide an estimate of the quantum of the ninth or any subsequent dividends at this time but anticipate being in a position to pay a ninth dividend in November/December 2012.

The Administrators will continue to provide updates in relation to dividend timing and revisions of the total estimated dividend range, as appropriate, in between progress reports."

The above would seem to indicate that some allowance for the return from K hf is included in E&Y's estimates, the effect of the recent part settlement being to raise the lower limit (by 1.5p/£), without changing the upper one (previous estimate was 81.0p to 86.0p/£).


Anrigaut and DAG colleagues re - Update on E&Y (KSFUK) returns

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Thu, 21/06/2012 - 18:52

Hi Anrigaut,

Thank you for a small piece of good news amongst the ever ongoing Euro Zone situation and now the probable lowering immediately of Barclays and RBS by at least one Rating Agency. Both Banks heavily involved with loans to Greece if am am correct.

The raising of the 81p/£ to 82.5p/£ lower estimate would appear to be definitely partly due to the recent agreement between E&Y and the WuC of Kaupthing hf. I had said at a guess that the part settlement based on the £510m, and guestimating a similar return on the remaining £185m could give us another 0.624p/£ from that source.

If I take the agreed £302m on it's own x 25% then divide the answer by £4,500m (unsecured creditors total owed by KSFUK) you get 1.6777%. Then take the agreed £246.1m owed to us by KSFUK x that by 1.6777% = £4.1288m x 100 then divide by £905.3m (our unsecured cash owed to our creditors = 0.456p/£).

The above was my guess, but if you now take the 1.5% due back on £246.1m you get £3.691m x 100 and divide by £905.3m = 0.4077p/£. So it would appear that E&Y did not allow for anything back from the WuC until this agreement has come about. So it should raise our eventual returns by the 0.4077p/£. When we get that depends on the amount we receive in future dividends from E&Y (KSFUK) and the time line.

I will allow for this increase in their lower estimate in my thoughts on the July figures. But it appears that E&Y (KSFUK) are slowly edging up towards our lower KSFIOM estimate of 89.08% as I hoped they would.

Let's just hope all the adverse situations do not affect our hoped for returns and maybe, based on my thoughts of the 0.624p/£ that might come back from E&Y that we might at least get another 0.2163p/£back also.

There is still hope for an eventual 100%, or dam near it.

The other piece of good news, as Anrigaut says, from E&Y's statement is that they still hope to pay their next dividend by November/December this year, and that could just help us get our next dividend in Feb/March 2013 rather than June 2013, if KSFIOM loan repayments stand up. Just need to wait and hope.

Thanks again Anrigaut for the good news

And I hope you all have a good weekend,

Gordon 45


Thanks Gordon 45.

  • anrigaut
  • 19/10/08 30/10/09
  • a depositor
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  • Thu, 21/06/2012 - 20:05

There may of course be other events taken into account in the revised projections (eg loan book repayments). However, it looks to me rather as though E&Y's lower estimate indeed assumed nothing coming back from Khf, but their upper estimate did. By assuring at least part of their claim, the agreement has allowed them to narrow down their window.

And yes, the rather more precise statement about the likely timing of their next dividend is encouraging. Just have to keep our fingers & toes crossed for 'our' loan book.


THANKS

  • everhopeful
  • 11/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Tue, 26/06/2012 - 02:03

Dear Anrigaut and Gordon,

Thanks agauin to both of you for your very helpful analysis.

James