Thoughts on JLs January 2012 figures

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
  • a depositor
  • Offline
Posted: Sun, 12/02/2012 - 20:01

Hi Folks,

Now attaching my thoughts on the JanuaryFigures.

Cover Note to go with thoughts on January 2012 Figures

Start of another Calendar year, and January had £1m in returns almost cancelled out by the minus FX situation, but did we really expect a brilliant January after the great December in 2011. All my data is based on GBP, my apologies to all my DAG Colleagues who invested in other currencies.

I’m now getting 98.60% as a lower estimate in returns by December 2014; based on 84.83% from our loan book and a 79% return on unsecured creditors loans from E&Y (KSFUK). The 98.6p/£. You will see further down under point 2 that I think we could perhaps see the JLs raising their lower estimate from the loan book to a figure higher than 84.83%, and I give my reasons why in that paragraph.

Still waiting to hear, like the rest of you whether Elle McPherson does or does not appeal to the Supreme Court re her ‘set off’ situation (have an ongoing question in to the JLs on this). They hope to give some answers to my ongoing list of questions in the 9.1.2012 Progress Report – due out any day now.

  1. Not sure if our dependence on ‘pulling in cash’ from later years is relevant from now on. But will show short sharp figures.

· In 2009 approx £48m brought in early from later years I.e. 2010/2016, giving a return of £13.33%
· In 2010 approx £53.029m brought in early from later years I.e. 2011/2016, giving a return of between 17.032% and 19.003%.
· In 2011 £40.260m brought in early from later years I.e. 2012/2016, giving a return of 35.407%.
· So for 2012, January brought back £0.346m (1.303%) of the figure due between 2013 & 2014 (£26.544m).

  1. In respect of the remaining 10 large loans I think we can still see probably a figure of around £54m after the January intake (65.81%) of the remaining £82.052m still due back from the loan book.

And based on the total loans still due, we still have had no updates yet from the JLs – might get it in the 6 monthly report – due out now – so we might see the following –
2012= £55.854m = 68.071% of loans still due
2013 = £18.901m = 23.035%
2014 = £7.297m = 8.893%, but this is a large loan, as we already know, but appears to going lower in minute amounts.

So in % terms based on value that would suggest 7 of the 10 loans are due in 2012, 2 in 2013 and 1 in 2014. But whether the large loan is included in 2012, or 2013 is up for grabs, but would probably think 2012 now. We need info from the JLs to help us here.

· The 10 large loans are still significant, especially if 7 are due in 2012, probably including the 1 very large loan left.

My thoughts on the January figures and updates on estimates are all contained in the attachment with this cover note – again to try and retain the format of the layout. My Table 12 (1st draft) has been updated to allow for January 2012. I still get 98.60p/£ return overall.

The figure still due for unresolved claims is now £12.03m (I think) at end of Jan and unclaimed still at £1.6m = £13.63m. Again await answers to questions to update unresolved/unclaimed further.

I have revamped my Table 12 to take full account of all cash received so far up to 31.1.2012. I have revamped 2012 to 2014 to show the new totals due back from loans. But we now await the Progress Report for 9.1.2012, as that is sure to show some form of estimated interest by the JLs over the new balance of the Liquidation. So once that is issued I would think I will once again be off setting interest gained in January 2012 onwards from estimated interest due from that point onwards until the end of the Liquidation – hope you can follow what I am trying to explain.

We have received 83.2% in returns now. I think we could get another 7p/£ by June, that would leave us slightly short of cash for 5p/£ in December 2012 and mean probably another 6.4p/£ by June 2013 then followed by a final dividend of around 2.0p/£ by December 2014. Unless we get increases in lower dividends expected from our JLs and E&Y (KSFYK) or cash back from Kaupthing hf or litigation. But the JLs may have sufficient to pay back 5p/£ by April/May 2012, and if that is the case we could get another 5p/£ by December 2012. That would mean a final dividend, still in December 2014 of around 5.4p/£. But the above is all based on the JLs & E&Y’s lower estimates of 84.83% and 79% being reached. Also depends on my data being accurate as it now currently shows a lower return of 98.60p/£ against the JLs 93.0%.

So my thoughts still allow no gains from ‘Parental Guarantee’, no gains from E&Y’s claim against Kaupthing hf and nothing from litigation. Although we had the news re Kaupthing hf and the other Icelandic Banks re repayments to all depositors, no one is sure what it all means to us, so I see no point in including hoped for cash back at this point. Must also take note of the current Euro Zone and World situation, as it appears the UK is on its’ own against most of the other 26 Euro Zone Countries, and as mentioned below, the fact that well over half of our remaining loans due, are in foreign currency.

Having said that, my gut feeling is that we might just see some form of increase from the JLs on their lower estimate of 84.83% in their 9.1.2012 Progress Report, on returns due from the KSFIOM loan book. Because the current return on the loan book is £330.7m out of £416m, and that is equivalent of 79.495%. So a return of 84.83% on £416m means a total of £352.89m, or a difference of £22.193m out of the £82.052m still due (27.047% of £82.052m) So I feel a return of higher than 84.83% is quite likely. A return of 91.10% (the JLs current higher estimate on the loan book) would mean a total of £378.976m. This is equivalent of £48.276m more than the £330.7m already in and would equal 58.835% of the £82.058m still due. Make your own conclusions.

  1. As said I will ignore any return from ‘Parental Guarantee’ until JLs give definite figures on what to expect on any return from Iceland. If we get a definitive answer I will then update my Tables to include some form of return and timespan involved. Until then we should ignore it totally.

As said previously regarding the E&Y (KSFUK) claim although accepted, the Kaupthing hf ‘Winding up Committee’ have only agreed a claim of around £288m out of the £695m net claimed by E&Y. It is not a preferred claim, so it is an unsecured claim and therefore could be a return of only around 25%, and 25% of £288m = £72m. Taken in the context of unsecured creditors of KSFUK being in the region of £4.7bn would mean in the region of an additional 0.4p/£ to us.

And as said the ever-worsening situation in the financial world including the frightening Euro Zone situation could cause us further problems – we wait and hope.

One last point, I think worth mentioning is the split of loans by currency still due at this time. loans due back in GBP are less than the other curriencies put together. GBP £29.881m, the approximate amount in foreign currencies is - USD in equiv GBP equal £15.475m, Euros in equiv GBP is £34.456m, Swiss Francs £2.465m and Canadian Dollars £2.068m, so approx 64% in foreign currencies. Just a point to ponder. I did ask questions on this from last August onwards, perhaps some replies in 9.1.2012 Progress Report.

So, having said all of the above, we should feel good after the poor January 2012 figures. We have to hope our JLs and E&Y can withstand the worsening European and World situations and still deliver on their 84.83% (or even higher if my ‘gut feeling’ is correct - hope to hell it is) and 79% of E&Y lower estimations. Let’s see how things ‘pan out’ in the JLs progress Report and over 2012. As said above, could be on target to get 98.60p/£ back according to my calculations – but who knows.

As always,

Take Care, and God Bless,

Gordon 45

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