Thoughts on the JLs Feb data + estimated returns

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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Posted: Fri, 09/03/2012 - 13:50

Hi Folks,

Cover Note to go with thoughts on February 2012 Figures

January had £1m in returns almost cancelled out by the minus FX situation, but did we really expect a brilliant January after the great December in 2011. February had excellent returns of £6.117m. If you read my updated estimates that included the 31.1.2012 figures and the relevant data from the JLs 9.1.2012 Progress Report you would see I modified the expected returns to 25% from the KSFIOM loan book, for the months Jan – June 2012, based on the JLs information that the loans due back were heavily weighted towards Nov/Dec 2012. That also meant I then allocated the remaining 75% against July – Dec 2012. Returns for 2013 I left at a 50/50% split. All my data is based on GBP, my apologies to all my DAG Colleagues who invested in other currencies.

I’m now getting 99.05% as a lower estimate in returns by December 2014; based on 89.08% from our loan book and a 79% return on unsecured creditors loans from E&Y (KSFUK).

Still waiting to hear, now about the appeal by Elle McPherson to the Privy Council – the Supreme Appeals court in the IOM re her ‘set off’ situation.

  1. Not sure if our dependence on ‘pulling in cash’ from later years is very relevant from now on. But will show short sharp figures.

· In 2009 approx £48m brought in early from later years I.e. 2010/2016, giving a return of £13.33%
· In 2010 approx £53.029m brought in early from later years I.e. 2011/2016, giving a return of between 17.032% and 19.003%.
· In 2011 £40.260m brought in early from later years I.e. 2012/2016, giving a return of 35.407%.
· So for 2012, January/February brought back £0.620m (2.335%) of the figure due between 2013 & 2014 (£26.544m).

  1. In respect of the remaining 10 large loans, we saw a figure of £56.7m being quoted by the JLs in their 9.1.2012 Progress Report. No change that I could see come the end of January. Including February returns I am now guessing a figure of around £52m (68.479%) of the remaining £75.935m still due back from the loan book

Based on the value of loans due by year for 2012, 2013 and 2014 it would appear the 10 large loans are split as follows: 7 of the 10 loans are due in 2012, 2 in 2013 and 1 in 2014. But whether the two large loans are included in 2012, or one in 2013 is up for grabs, but would probably think 2012 now. The 10 large loans are still very significant, especially if 7 are due in 2012.

My thoughts on the February figures and updates on estimates are all contained in the attachment with this cover note – again to try and retain the format of the layout. My Table 12 (3rd draft) has been updated to allow for February 2012. I now get 99.05p/£ return overall.

The figure still due for unresolved claims is now £11.930m at end of Feb and unclaimed still at £1.6m = £13.530m. I have revamped my Table 12 to take full account of all cash received so far up to 29.2.2012. I have revamped 2012 to 2014 to show the new totals due back from loans. I have once again taken note of estimated interest the JLs expect to receive over the balance of the Liquidation. Based on the amount estimated still due of between £0.9m to £1.2m (9.1.2012 Progress Report) and the amount received in January of £0.74m I have allocated the high estimate of £1.2m all against Jan- June 2012. And as I cannot differentiate between interest & other income received in the monthly updates, I take all of that as interest. So if I take the receipt of £0.4m in Feb off the balance of the £1.2m it leaves a balance of £0.060m still to come over the balance of the Liquidation. This will not be correct, but it does mean once the £0.060m comes in anything after that between now and July 2012’s Progress Report is a total gain to us towards dividends (as I will not be allowing for any excess in my monthly updates).

We have received 83.2% in returns now. I think we could get another 6.0p/£ by May/June 2012, assuming that E&Y (KSFUK) give out a dividend of 5% (£12.305m) in March/April as they have indicated.

If you carry out the same exercise for July-Dec 2012, taking into account the capital due back at 75%, then multiply the answer by 89.02%. Hope for another 5% from KSFUK (£12.305m), take into account all deductions as above, using the new down dated figures you then end up with a net total available of £50.664m for an 8th dividend as at end of Dec 2012/Feb 2013 of around 5p/£. If that was to happen we would then get a total of 11.0p/£ for Dec 2012/Feb 2013 and push our returns up from 83.2% + 6.0% + 5% = 94.2% by the end of 2012/end of Feb 2013.

And I think based on my spreadsheet we could then see a final payout by December 2014 of a further 4.85p/£, which would bring our returns up to 99.05%. But the Jls now show a lower estimated return of 95.4% and I’m getting 99.1%, a 3.65% difference, but I’m using all the up to date and correct figures – so who knows.

My thoughts still allow no gains from ‘Parental Guarantee’, no gains from E&Y’s claim against Kaupthing hf and nothing from litigation. Although we had the news re Kaupthing hf and the other Icelandic Banks re repayments to all depositors, no one is sure what it all means to us, so I see no point in including hoped for cash back at this point. Must also take note of the current Euro Zone and World situation.

  1. As said I will ignore any return from ‘Parental Guarantee’ until JLs give definite figures on what to expect on any return from Iceland. If we get a definitive answer I will then update my Tables to include some form of return and timespan involved. Until then we should ignore it totally.

Also said previously regarding the E&Y (KSFUK) claim although accepted, the Kaupthing hf ‘Winding up Committee’ have only agreed a claim of around £288m out of the £695m net claimed by E&Y. It is not a preferred claim, so it is an unsecured claim and therefore could be a return of only around 25%, and 25% of £288m = £72m. Taken in the context of unsecured creditors of KSFUK being in the region of £4.7bn would mean in the region of an additional 0.4p/£ to us.

One last point, I think worth mentioning is the split of loans by currency still due at this time. Loans due back in GBP are less than the other currencies put together. GBP £28.086m, the approximate amount in foreign currencies is - USD in equiv GBP equal £13.315m, Euros in equiv GBP is £33.300m, Swiss Francs £2.465m and Canadian Dollars £0.000m, so approx 64.63% in foreign currencies, of which 67.85% is in Euro Loans.

So, having said all of the above, we should still feel great after the February 2012 figures. We have to hope our JLs and E&Y can withstand the worsening European and World situations and still deliver on their 89.08% from the loan book and 79% of E&Y lower estimations. Let’s see how things ‘pan out’ over 2012. As said above, could be on target to get 99.05p/£ back according to my calculations – but who knows.

As always,

Take Care, and God Bless,

Gordon 45

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Next KSFIOM distribution

  • anrigaut
  • 19/10/08 30/10/09
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  • Thu, 05/04/2012 - 06:54

The JLs have announced a small return (around £0.8m) in March. But, with £53m cash in hand and at least £22m to come from KSFUK on 2 May, there will clearly be enough to consider our next distribution.

The JLs say they "will make an announcement on the amount and timing of the next distribution to be paid by KSFIOM once the details of the KSFUK distribution are finalised, taking into account other anticipated recoveries":
http://www.kaupthingsingers.co.im/2012/april/04april2012/

The Administrators of KSFUK are expected to confirm the level of their dividend in the week commencing 23 April, so we should expect to hear more from our JLs by early May.


Thanks Anrigaut. Another date

  • sambururob
  • 10/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Thu, 05/04/2012 - 12:24

Thanks Anrigaut. Another date to look forward to.
It will give them this month to get some more cash in!
Rob and Wendy


Good news from E&Y today:

  • anrigaut
  • 19/10/08 30/10/09
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  • Thu, 29/03/2012 - 12:21

Good news from E&Y today:

"As a result of the sale of the asset finance division, and the recent judgment in respect of the Singer & Friedlander Limited Pension and Assurance Scheme, the Joint Administrators advise that they intend to pay an eighth dividend of not less than 9p in the £ to non-preferential creditors on 2 May 2012. The exact level of the dividend will be dependent on recoveries from the loan books in the intervening period. This will bring total dividends paid to non-preferential creditors to at least 72p in the £.

It is intended that the Administrators will confirm the level of the dividend in the week commencing 23 April 2012 and will provide an update in respect of the estimated range of total distributions in their progress report for the period to 7 April 2012 which is to be issued by 4 May 2012."

http://www.kaupthingsingers.co.uk/customer-creditor-information/

As you (G45) were predicting a next KSFIOM dividend of 6p/£ on the basis of 5p/£ from KSF-UK, it now looks as though we can hope for at least 7p/£ in late May or June, which would take us over the magical 90% level, something I think none of us ever imagined back in the dark days of 2008/9. It will be interesting to see the March figures for KSFIOM.

Details of the sale referred to above are announced thus:

"The Joint Administrators of Kaupthing Singer & Friedlander Limited ("KSF"), Patrick Brazzill, Maggie Mills, Tom Burton and Alan Bloom of Ernst & Young, are pleased to announce that on 22 March 2012 they completed the share sale of Singers Asset Finance Holdings Limited and its subsidiary companies ("SAF") to Shawbrook Bank Limited.

The sale has resulted in the repayment of SAF's debt due to KSF in its entirety and the equity stake held by KSF being realised for a premium.

Patrick Brazzill, of Ernst & Young, the Joint Administrator of KSF, commented: "The achievement of the sale represents the realisation of a material asset of KSF and represents an excellent return to the KSF estate and, ultimately, for creditors. The Joint Administrators would like to thank the staff of SAF for their hard work in helping to make this happen."

http://www.kaupthingsingers.co.uk/


To Anrigaut and all DAG colleagues

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Fri, 30/03/2012 - 16:30

Hi Anrigaut,

Like the others before me, thank you, brilliant news from E&Y (KSFUK).

Perhaps I could make a couple of points on the, at least, 9p/£ return on 2.5.2012. The 5p/£ back equals £12.305m and the 9p/£ back equals £22.149m. But don't forget 5p/£ back equals 1.359p/£ to us from the JLs and 9p/£ back equals 2.446p/£ to us from the JLs. so Anrigaut is correct it does mean another 1p/£ back to us from the JLs.

My 6p/£ figure was if the JLs waited until June before paying out. I had allowed for a 5p/£ payout if around April/May, including a 5p/£ back from E&Y. And yes getting back the £22.149m means we should be able to get 6p/£ at least by April/May. If you take the end of Feb cash in hand of £52.364m add the £22.149m = £74.513 then take off around £12.068m held back for unresolved/unclaimed and a further £3.331m for bal of Liquidation costs you then get a net £59.114m which you x 100 and then divide by £891.77m = 6.628p/£. Which means we are £3.318m short of the 7p/£. But all we need is £3.318m net cash extra between March & April from the JLs to receive a 7p/£ payout in May - it would be brilliant, because as Anrigaut says that would take us over the 90% mark - I can't believe it.

But there may be consequences to another payout by Dec12/Feb13 by the JLs, because of this bigger payout from E&Y. I had reckoned on 2 x 5p/£ payouts this year from them and that would have brought back in £24.61m from E&Y this year. The return of, at least, £22.149m leaves a shortfall of £2.461m based on my estimates. And that is not a lot, but if our own returns don't cover that it just might affect another payout to us by late Dec or by Feb next year. Although E&Y may still come up trumps and payout another dividend later in the year. Perhaps their April Progress Report will inform us.

The sale of E&Y (KSFUK) Asset Finance Division, is great, but it was I think the last 'Jewel in the Crown' of the companies still comprising the KSFUK group. It was repaying it's loans due to KSFUK, it was making a profit and it had achieved partial refinancing and had therefore part repaid what it owed to KSFUK. So they have made a one off substantial return to the KSFUK coffers and we have benefited from that, but lost ongoing repayments and loans due to KSFUK in the future. The judgement on the Pension and Assurance scheme is also great news as it means more cash for general distribution. and none of the above affects the ongoing situations with returns from the various loan books. But we just don't know how this one off boost will affect returns still to come in and how long it will take. So just have to wait and see.

Not long to wait on our own March figures and the E&Y (KSFUK) 7.4.2012 Progress Report to review things then.

But right now brilliant news,

Let's hope it continues in this great surge we have had lately.

Gordon 45


Yippeeeeee

  • cottesmore
  • 21/10/08 16/07/12
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  • Thu, 29/03/2012 - 16:02

This is indeed fantastic news.Im sure Gordon will be all over it like a rash!! You are correct Angela.If someone would have offered me 90p in the pound in the early days,i would have bitten there hand off!
Bless us all, i say.


Great news! Those dark dark

  • Yoda
  • 21/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Thu, 29/03/2012 - 14:51

Great news! Those dark dark days of Oct 2008, at last are almost behind us. It has been a painful and depressing journey but this website has allowed a window to the progress and has kept the torch of hope alight. Thanks to all who have worked so hard to get to this point. Can you believe we are so getting so close to our goal???
Fingers and toes crossed that we actually see ALL our money again!!!


Thanks for the update

  • Todd
  • 12/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Sat, 10/03/2012 - 14:08

Gordon - If you were a woman, I would ask you to get married - Well ? Are you ?
(just joking) You are always a lifesaver for us.


Returns

  • thesunnysouth
  • 10/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Sat, 10/03/2012 - 10:54

G45. Thank you. My mother will give you a big hug when this is all resolved (its her money).

John


Thanks again for taking the

  • cande
  • 15/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Sat, 10/03/2012 - 08:29

Thanks again for taking the time to explain things to the rest of us. Much appreciated.


Latest News

  • Blades
  • 19/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Fri, 09/03/2012 - 17:32

Once again Gordon thanks very much for all the time and effort you put into keeping us all informed about what is happening.