Some thoughts on the JLS Sept figures + some more thoughts on returns

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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Posted: Thu, 14/10/2010 - 18:26

Hi Folks,

Attaching my thoughts on the JLs September figures, and my updates on estimated returns for your perusal.

Again data on as an attachment in order to keep the format to make reading info easier. Hope you do not mind.

Had hoped to have around 8 questions answered by JLs before I posted, but I was not abvailable initially and I now await there availability. So thought no point in waiting, so posting and will update on the questions when and if I get some replies.

Also we await the next 6 monthly update from E&Y re KSFUK. Due out before 7.11.2010. When it is issued I will look through the data and update you all on any significant points (as I see it) and how what the report contains might affect us over the rest of our Liquidation

As always my thoughts and guesses, so could be totally wrong - but hope not.

So take care,

And God Bless,

Gordon 45

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Thanks Gordon

  • shafted
  • 10/10/08 12/12/09
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  • Sun, 24/10/2010 - 18:26

I still visit most days and appreciate your massive contribution to the moral boost you give everyone,lets hope all eventually works out.

Regards
David


Thank you Gordon

  • uptight61
  • 14/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Sun, 24/10/2010 - 19:01

Again, thank you for your postings and analysis, Gordon. You are doing a fantastic job keeping the liquidators on their toes and everyone here appreciates it.


Thanks Gordon

  • sambururob
  • 10/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Sun, 24/10/2010 - 15:57

Yet again Gordon does the work and we all benefit.
All I can say is that you are a beacon of light shining on a murky crowd of bankers and Wendy and I are eternally grateful.
We are fully aware of the potential pitfalls and possible financial mishaps ahead but you give us well-grounded hope for a final settlement that is far from the catastrophe we felt was happening two years ago.
What a shame that they closed the bank in a panic instead of keeping calm and talking to each other.
Thanks again Gordon.
Rob and Wendy


Gordon's Estimates

  • IsleofMuppets
  • 13/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Fri, 22/10/2010 - 04:04

Let's hope your "guess" are correct. It's the most stupid liquidation in history. Actually I think it could still be worth someone buying the bank on the promise to make everyone whole with immediate effect if they keep their deposits for two years. The customer lifetime value they would get from the acquisition would more than justify it.


To Gordon 45

  • caledonia
  • 14/10/08 30/09/09
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  • Thu, 21/10/2010 - 11:07

Many thanks for your continued support to all.


Gordon 45 many thanks

  • jetski
  • 10/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Thu, 21/10/2010 - 12:31

Thanks for keeping us all up to date. Much appreciated !


Many thanks Gordon 45

  • alandob
  • 12/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Sun, 17/10/2010 - 09:46

Many thanks Gordon 45


Thanks Gordon 45

  • sam
  • 07/12/08 30/09/11
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  • Sat, 16/10/2010 - 22:19

Again, you have made sense of the figures, the KSFIOM site postings would not mean a lot to me, and I'm sure many others, without your input.
Don't worry, if the eventual outcome is less than 97% I know people won't be saying, "But Gordon 45 said....."!
God bless you.


Thankyou

  • sunny1
  • 16/10/08 30/05/14
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  • Sat, 16/10/2010 - 09:29

Thankyou once more Gordon 45


JLS Sept Figures

  • carnel
  • 10/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Fri, 15/10/2010 - 10:20

What a terrific job.

It is a great comfort to know that we have someone to keep us in the picture month by month. And someone with a mastery of detail way beyond most of us I suspect. And someone who is not afraid of hard work on behalf of the community of sufferers.

My heartfelt thanks to you Gordon. You are truly Someone.


Hi Gordon 45

  • Lostinspace
  • 13/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Fri, 15/10/2010 - 08:45

Another fantastic job of work, thank you! It's so encouraging to read your reports.

It might seem a bit mad to ask this after all this time, but what exactly is "set-off?"

Also this liquidation process is still set to drag on until 2014, or longer, until we reach the end result? I thought I read some while back about 2017......but (touch wood) the results so far have been better (?) than expected?

LIS


To Lostinspace

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Fri, 15/10/2010 - 13:51

Hi There,

Thanks for your comments, most appreciated.

Re 'Set off', that is where one or more of our colleagues is owed cash from the liquidation but also owes cash to the Bank. So our JLs have to investigate and agree to allow 'set off' on the part of each individual involved.

For example if I am owed £50k but owe the bank £20k, then I would be looking to subtract the £20k from the £50k and therefore owe the bank a net £30k. That's how I think it works in theory, but the JLs may look at other factors involved before agreeing a net sum.

It should reduce what comes back in from the loan book but also should lower the current unsecured loans total of £905m by the same amount and would therefore further clarify the overall situation re the liquidation. It would also simplify the unknowns further and let us se a clearer picture of what is to come.

Re the end of the liquidation process, JLs have confirmed last loan due in by spring of 2014. and it is the last loan as there is only one person against that loan on the Maturity Ladder monthly statements. And I think this last loan is one of the 10 large loans worth £190m circa that the JLs mentioned recently. As they confirmed to me that the 10 loans were covered betwen 2011 and 2014.

The other outstanding loan of £250k in 2016 is a 'set off' situation and the JLs expect that to be finalised before 2014.

That just leaves the 'pushing back' of any balance of loans not paid off into following year's loans. for example any oustanding loans from 2009 not paid off in 2010 going into 2011 along with any outstanding from 2010 at the end of 2010. And that will happen believe me, so the problem with spring 2014 is this ever increasing back log of loans into future years. So whether the liquidation ends by spring 2014 depends on the JLs keeping any back logs to a minimum. So I say it will be the end of 2014 at least for the end of the liquidation and perhaps beyond.

Hope the above helps,

Gordon 45


Loan Back Log

  • D RAM
  • 13/10/08 01/08/14
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  • Sat, 16/10/2010 - 01:17

Gordon thanks so much for your excellent analysis and I apologise if this has already been dealt with elsewhere but can you / somebody clarify what proportion of the loans are covered by security ? ( I appreciate that the proportion may vary dependent on market conditions but is there a ball-park figure ? ). At some point the JL's would surely call in the security rather than allowing further pushing back of a loan ? What is the norm if repayment of a loan is pushed back - is interest levied at the original rate or a higher rate in view of the potentially increased risks involved ?


To D Ram

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Sun, 17/10/2010 - 19:08

Hi There,

Re you question on Security of loans. The JLs are not very forthcoming in this aspect. but if you refer way back to when they admited in one of the COI minutes that at that point, there was 4 loans causing concern.

Each loan had a different level of security, one seemed watertight in that what they received back from a security aspect plus what the property was worth came to more than 100% of that loan. If I remember correctly I think I took the overall returns we could expect from these 4 loans at 50% and if added to the £2.6m already written off (at that time(and not changed since) I guestimated around a loss of £8m circa against a return of around £80m. I then took a straight forward pro rata of 5x80 = £400m approx and that the £8m became 8x5 = £40m. Thus giving an approx 10% loss over the liquidation. And that is why I said at that time there was no way we could get 100% back on the loan book as the JLs were estimating at the higher level.

Since then in my occasional conversations with the JLs they have said that they are at various stages of recovery or attempted recovery re some of the loans. Some it was about trying to get them refinanced others were in the process of going through litigation, but so far no more actual declared losses have been added to the £2.6m already shown. They have also said that litigation and 'write - offs' are the last resort as they want the best for all of us and that means trying to get the cash back without losses.

Don't know about any increase in interest on these loans with delayed repayments I had assumed they would continue on the rate they had originally agreed, but don't know.

So really sorry that I cannot enlighten on your query, hope someone else can.

Gordon 45


Security on Loan Book

  • D RAM
  • 13/10/08 01/08/14
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  • Mon, 18/10/2010 - 06:19

Gordon,

Thanks so much for your advice.

Keep up the good work,

D RAM


Further Thoughts on the Security of the Loan Book

  • D RAM
  • 13/10/08 01/08/14
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  • Wed, 20/10/2010 - 10:14

I've had yet more thoughts about the security of the Loan Book and wonder if before extending a loan the JLs review the adequacy of the original security and if insufficient demand further security? I believe this is normal banking practice but are the borrowers so stretched that they cannot offer more security and hence a "like it or lump it situation prevails" ? ( obviously if greater security is provided it ultimately improves chances of the loan amount being recovered in full ). If this point hasn't be clarified before I'd like it raised by our representatives at the next Creditors Meeting.

I'm very nervous that extending loans may just be putting off the inevitable that many of them are never repaid and lack of adequate security results in our substantial loss.

Sorry to be so pessimistic but ...

D RAM


I agree with D RAM's comments

  • barrona
  • 17/11/08 31/05/09
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  • Wed, 20/10/2010 - 11:34

I agree with D RAM's comments about the Loan Book security. I don't have much faith in the competence of the JL's as it is and fully endorse the observation that the matter shoud be raised and an answer given at the next Creditors' Meeting.


Some thoughts......

  • golightly
  • 14/10/08 28/08/09
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  • Fri, 15/10/2010 - 08:11

Thanks Gordon for putting the situation into layman's terms and giving us an indication of what is possibly to come back.


Where Do I Find Attachments ?

  • worriedsaver
  • 10/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Fri, 22/10/2010 - 11:07

Can anyone kindly advise where I find any "attachments " to any of the posts ? I (would love to see Gordon's attachments ). We appear to have two separate depositors websites and I am afraid that I am a little confused as to which is the one that is "public" and which is the "private" one especially as I cannot remeber my usenames and passwords .
Many thanks .


To worriedsaver 2nd time round

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Sun, 24/10/2010 - 18:00

Hi There once again,

One of our colleagues has said, and rightly so, that if you do not 'log in' you will not gain access to any attachments. So you need to fix out your usernames and passwords in order to get the access.

So you may need to contact those who control changing passwords and usernames in order to gain the access you wish.

Hope that helps,

From myself and another friend in the DAG,

Gordon 45


to worriedsaver

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Fri, 22/10/2010 - 17:55

Hi There,

You will find my attachments on both sites now as I updated things on the private site around a week ago,

Gordon 45