Some Thoughts on the JLs October Data + Estimates

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
  • a depositor
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Posted: Wed, 20/11/2013 - 19:28

Hi Folks,

Cover Note to go with thoughts on October 2013 Figures
Have updated my spreadsheet to account for the information from E&Y (KSFUK’s) new figures from their Progress report dated 7.10.2013 and the JLs October figures. The points shown are a listing of those I feel will still have a bearing on the balance of the Liquidation – you may not agree.

Should mention here, that after seeing the E&Y Progress Report I said in my thoughts on that report, that although I did not see E&Y paying a dividend of 3% in December this year, that I would retain the 3% figure in my current spreadsheet. Have now changed my mind, see no point in waiting on their confirmation of what they will pay by 31.12.2013, as I cannot see it at best being better than 1.5% unless the high valued yacht is paid off or some of their Caribbean Properties are repaid before then. So, I will show the expected 6% still due back from them as follows – 1.5% in Dec, 1.5% by June 2014, 1.5% by Dec 2014 and the last 1.5% by June 2015. I would have gone beyond June 2015, but feel I still want to keep their repayments, to our JLs, in line with our returns from our JLs to us.

So points I feel are still worth mentioning at present are -

  1. ‘Unresolved’ - down by another £9k to £5.566m + the £1.400m ‘Unclaimed = £6.966m.
  2. The ‘write off’ situation still no change, which is good, but the three yachts loom large now as they total over half of those loans still to be repaid.
  3. Still no outcome yet from the Privy Council on the 9/10.10.13 re ‘Lighthouse’ affair, to see if it will help to substantially reduce the remaining figure for unresolved one way or the other. Was expecting some news on that by now.
  4. Still think the JLs £24.3m is too low to cover Liquidation costs. I’ll stick with £25m in my spreadsheets for present in my calcs.
  5. No change re the PG, or interest due, in the July Progress Report. Slightly more info from E&Y (KSFUK) on the claim for the £185m re future meetings, but no more actual info on the % return on the agreed £310m plus any agreed figure on the £185m and when it might come back to KSFUK – and therefore onwards to us.
  6. No more info on the probable end date of the Liquidation, I think it could be mid/late 2015 before we see an end date, due to the latest info from E&Y (KSFUK). And that is not allowing for any word from WuC of Kaupthing hf re KSFIOM and KSFUK claims (although hopefully we will see something happening there before 2015).
  7. We had a circa £27.5m ‘pushback on our loan book from 2012 into 2013. The move back of the approx £6.1m loan in July to 2014 and the virtual non movement since then in loans being repaid tends to suggest that there will be a c£27m ‘push back ‘from 2013 into 2014 unless we see further movement in Nov/Dec 2013.
  8. Still no change in the Unclaimed claims figure of £1.4m shown in the July Progress Report.
  9. After the very slight increases from the JLs in both loan book estimates and overall estimates within the July Progress Report, we also saw a slight increase from E&Y (KSFUK) in their lower estimate from 84% to 85%, good news, but no change in their higher estimate of 86.5%. My revamp of their current loans, using the same % return on loans still due, as I used on the KSFIOM loan book, gives a return of 85.634%. That includes no allowance for the claim against Kaupthing hf.
  10. We await the E&Y (KSFUK) update w/c 2.12.2013 for info on quantum & date of their Dividend in Dec 2013 to our JLs. That dividend will help towards our JLs hoped for 2p/£ dividend to us, by June next year.

And let’s hope our JLs can get some more cash back in this year, to minimise the balance due in 2014.

As always,

Take Care, and God Bless,

Gordon 45

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thank you

  • dd
  • 24/11/08 31/05/09
  • a depositor
  • Offline
  • Sat, 23/11/2013 - 10:56

thank you