Some thoughts on JLs May figures + updated estimates

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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Posted: Tue, 14/06/2011 - 20:34

Hi Folks,

Great news re 'Parental Guarantee' well done to all who were involved especially the JLs, COI and all others.

This is my Cover Note to go with thoughts on May 2011 Figures

Back to reality in May, as was to be expected. Brilliant start to the year that was impossible to continue. But we have to realise that returns this year still total an average of £18.631m on average per month – great by any standards. So although even that cannot continue at that level I still think we will get a dividend later in the year of between 5-8p/£. We did receive the £12.305m from E&Y (KSFUK) on 25.5.2011 – too late for inclusion in our April dividend but a big help towards the next £45.25m we need to get at least the 5p/£ return, hopefully later in the year.

So, if we need £45.2m and we hope for another £12.305m from E&Y later in the year that means, after the May figures, we need a net £3.755m from KSFIOM loan book inc interest to meet a further 5% from the JLs this year (after allowing for balance of Liquidation costs and cash retained to payout the continuing unresolved/unclaimed creditors). Or in monthly terms from June to Nov it would mean a net £0.626m per month. I think the £0.626m per month is a target that will be exceeded. I still think a 20% return highly possible for this year.

  1. Again re our dependence so far on ‘pulling in cash’ from later years to subsidise shortfalls as occurred in 2009 and 2010.

· In 2009 approx £23.6m was ‘pushed back’ from loans due into 2010 and a figure of approx £48m was brought in early from later years I.e. 2010/2016.This meant out of a total for these later years of £358m the JLs brought in £48m = £13.33%

· In 2010 we have ‘pushed back’ circa £22m into 2011. JLs did a fantastic job and brought £53.029m in early from later years I.e. 2011/2016. This meant out of a total for those years of £279.047 they brought in £53.029m or 19.003%.

· So for 2011 the picture regarding bringing in cash from later years looks like this – Cash due back 2012/2016 is £113.704m and at 13.33% = £15.157m, the JLs have already brought back £16.824m by May, thus surpassing the percentage of that achieved in 2009. And well on their way to reaching that achieved in 2010 of 19.003% = £21.607m. Smaller total in cash terms than that achieved in the last two years, but still very important to reaching our targets. Also said 2011 has a very high total on it’s own and we could still get the £114.735m to meet the 84.95% lower estimate of the JLs) from 2011 without undue help from 2012/2016. The JLs have brought back in overall £93.159m in 5 months Inc £16.824m from later years so the £100 - £114.467m (84.95%) appears to be well within reach this year. Although as May figures show we cannot hope to continue with the high figures received up to April. We also need to maintain good recoveries on the big loans.

  1. In respect of the 10 large original loans and the 10 ‘new set’ large loans we can see the following, based on the JLs info in the March figures update;

· We now know the new current 10 large loans are split; 3(2011), 4 (2012), 2 (2013) and 1 (2014).
· Still need to be careful re returns from the ‘new set’ of 10 large loans, as defaulting is still a worry.
· The capital due on this new list is £113m (66% of loan book)
· The capital due on the original 10 last July was £189.5m (61% of loan book)
· The capital due on the original 10 at October 2008 was £216m (52% of loan book)
· 66% is high and appears worrying, but each loan is on average worth £11.3m as against the average £18.95m last July and the £21.6m in October 2008.
· So yes % is higher but the overall total due is far less, so less worrying to me if one or two fail as against one or two as at last July.

My thoughts on the May figures and updates on estimates are all contained in the attachment with this cover note – again to try and retain the format of the layout. My Table 11 has been updated to allow for the May data including the 5th dividend and the return from E&Y (KSFUK). I now get 95.875p/£ return overall, another slight increase on my last lower estimate. I have revamped my Table 11 to take full account of all cash received so far up to 31.5.2011 and down dated what is still due in 2011 (based on 84.95%) on receipts so far. Also revamped down what is still due in value from following years based on early recoveries so far this year. Also revamped interest downward that is still due in 2011 based on receipts so far in 2011. And have also increased recoveries from E&Y (KSFUK) to their new increased estimated lower 78%. (£7.383m to us).

So if we say we will get two returns this year, already had one of 12.5p (8.4.2011) giving an overall total of 73.60% hopefully followed by another 8.00p/£ = 81.60p/£ by Dec 2011. Plus the possibility of another 5p/£ in June 2012 and 5p/£ in Dec 2012 = 10p/£ giving a grand total by Dec 2012 of 91.60p/£ (73.6 + 8.0 + 5.0 + 5.0 = 91.6). As said previously I’m currently staying with the 84.95% all the way through and also the 78% (from E&Y - KSFUK) all the way through until any changes are notified by the JLs or E&Y.

  1. The JLs put out a note on 25.5.2011 stating return from E&Y (KSFUK) of £12.3m

  2. On the 11.6.2011 we heard from Anrigaut that the appeal by the JLs to the Icelandic Supreme Court of Appeal had upheld the JLs appeal re the ‘Parental Guarantee’. Which was great news. Now have the confirmation from the JLs of this. Anrigaut is quoting some figures which I have thoughts on, and I have responded to her data via the DAG website. But suffice to say at present until we hear more officially from the JLs on the estimated amount being claimed, the percentage pay back from the Kaupthing hf ‘Winding up Committee’, any interest and at what rate, and when we can expect any first payment back, I will disregard the ‘Parental Guarantee’ as I have up until now, although some form of returns from there now seem likely – and that is brilliant.

The other bit of good news as said last month is E&Y state that the ‘Winding Up Committee’ understand that the value of Kaupthing hf assets now exceed the level of priority claims agreed by the Winding Up Committee’ or subject to dispute, and that options are being considered to enable a return to creditors – good news for KSFUK and therefore us in the level of returns we might get back from E&Y (KSFUK). This statement could now have an effect on any returns direct to our JLs on behalf of the KSFIOM claim.

So it would appear to leave any litigation as the outstanding way of getting cash back. Perhaps the JLs 9.7.2011 Progress Report will comment further on this.

So we should not be to despondent re May figures. Lets see what happens over the ‘Parental Guarantee’, any updates in JLs July Progress Report and see how things go over the next three to four months. Still feel we are on target for a good year as long as the majority of the 10 ‘new’ remaining large loans come through for us, and both our JLs and E&Y (KSFUK) meet their lower estimated returns at least. – but who knows.

As always,

Take Care, and God Bless,

Gordon 45

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JL replied to the 2 questions

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Wed, 15/06/2011 - 11:08

Hi Again,

Received replies of sorts to my two questions from the JLs. Based on the replies we should be given more data in the July Progress Report.

Questions and data as below;

  1. Any change in the £15m unresolved and/or the £2m unclaimed yet?

Ans. The level of unresolved claims is a moving target at the moment, however, we will include a revised table in our next six monthly report, which will be issued around the end of next month.

  1. And secondly were any of the 'new' 10 large loans repaid or part repaid in April?

Ans. Yes, one of the large loans was repaid in April. We will also indicate a revised top ten in the six monthly report.

Gordon 45


Thank you again Gordon for

  • peter and louise
  • 18/10/08 01/09/09
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  • Wed, 15/06/2011 - 14:57

Thank you again Gordon for showing us how the unfathomable can become so much less disturbing with a keen mind, balanced approach and clear explanation. Gordon, I have a question (and for Ice too as he did something spendid along these lines ages ago but I simply can't find his posting). The question is this: We are all definitely over the hump now and seem, hopefully, to be looking at a figure close to 100% of our money back, eventually, from the liquidation. The Parental Guarantee debacle has been won (which for me was the only thing I wanted to fight for). The PG has, of course, has thrown up even more imponderables regarding rate of interest to be applied, type of interest and probable conflicts over the basis for calculations by various interested parties etc., etc. Even so, would it be possible for depositors to have a sort of SPREADSHEET where we could enter our original deposit (plus the full, original interest) and see 1, what it would be worth by the end of the liquidation at, say, 3% per annum (I suppose that is the easy part), 2, how much interest our money has been generating as we have been depositing it in banks as it is given back to us in drips and drabs with every dividend on particular dates throughout the years until the end of the liquidation and 3, what the overall loss of interest is going to be between 1 and 2. That way each of us can know, bottom line, what we'd like to come out of the PG and the minimum we should be negotiating for. There will be no compensation, of course, for all the distress and anxiety we have all been through, but at least with such a spreadsheet we can all see at a glance the difference between what the financial gains would have been for us before disaster struck and perhaps more importantly, what our financial losses are actually going to be now that a period of calm is before us. I hope that makes sense. Thank you again for all you are doing for us.


To P&L

  • IceCrusher
  • 14/10/08 25/10/11
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  • Thu, 16/06/2011 - 18:43

Hello P&L,

I guess you are referring to my 'How Much When?' spreadsheet, produced in the early days of this mess. I keep my copy updated and it is still running interactively as anyone who downloaded a copy will also know. I have tweaked my latest version a little, but along with many other interactive spreadsheets that I've produced, I no longer put them on the site because most people don't seem to understand how to make them work!

If there is a consensus amongst fellow creditors I will post a generic, but otherwise, drop me an email with the pertinent details (I won't tell, promise!) and I'll send you a personalised copy.

Ice


HOW MUCH WHEN - SPREADSHEET

  • mikepapa
  • 10/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Mon, 20/06/2011 - 13:05

Hi Ice,

Thanks for all your good work on our behalf.
Do you think you could kindly post copy of your How much when spreadsheet on the site, I would like a copy and will take my chances on understanding/using it.

Many thanks and kind regards,

Mike


@mikepapa

  • IceCrusher
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  • Fri, 24/06/2011 - 11:19

Hi Mike, apologies for delay in answering your query, I got sidetracked elsewhere. Only you and P&L have requested the HowMuchWhen spreadsheet so perhaps you'd just care to contact me through the site email and I'll be happy to send you a copy as I did with P&L. I can also provide my Skype and Gtalk addresses so as to talk you through the program if necessary, as interactive spreadsheets can be a bit daunting.

Ice


THANKS

  • mikepapa
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  • Fri, 24/06/2011 - 14:21

Email on its way!

Cheers,

Mike


Thanks for that Ice. Just

  • peter and louise
  • 18/10/08 01/09/09
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  • Thu, 16/06/2011 - 19:16

Thanks for that Ice. Just sent you an e-mail. Hope it gets to you alright.


@P&L - Ice

  • IceCrusher
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  • Fri, 17/06/2011 - 10:49

Hi P&L,

Customised HowMuchWhen spreadsheet is on its way to you by email!

Ice


Thanks Ice, got it. And thank

  • peter and louise
  • 18/10/08 01/09/09
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  • Fri, 17/06/2011 - 16:03

Thanks Ice, got it. And thank you very much. A very comprehensive spreadsheet, just what I needed. Unfortunately, am not able to change any of the data on it. It might be my computer, it might be me (more likely the latter actually) but the data (in blue) cannot be changed. All the same, it gives me the type of overall picture I wanted. Thanks so much P@L


@ P&L - Spreadsheet

  • IceCrusher
  • 14/10/08 25/10/11
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  • Fri, 17/06/2011 - 16:51

Peter, you need to download the file - it won't work in 'view' mode - download and open in Office Excel. It seems to work in Google docs too, but not so comprehensively as in Excel. Thanks!

Ice


Al-hamdullilah! Now working

  • peter and louise
  • 18/10/08 01/09/09
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  • Sat, 18/06/2011 - 10:31

Al-hamdullilah! Now working great! Thanks so much.


@P&L - ahlin

  • IceCrusher
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  • Sat, 18/06/2011 - 13:35

You are welcome! I'm very pleased to hear this!

Ice


THANKS

  • everhopeful
  • 11/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Wed, 15/06/2011 - 08:47

Many thanks again for all you hard work Gordon-it has been wonderful having someone interpret the figures for us and it does involve a lot of work.
James (everhopeful)