Some thoughts on JLs May 2010 figures and KSFIOM V KSFUK returns

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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Posted: Mon, 14/06/2010 - 11:24

Hello again Folks,

Back on with my latest thoughts on the May figures and what we might expect back from KSFUK and our JLs.

Can I just add my thoughts to calpespain and others re Lucky Jim and people like Diver, two of the few who fought hard for all of us when we were to gutted, stunned and to frightened to comprehend our situation and react in any meaningful way. And so the fight must continue.

Again re my data, I will attach it separately in order to try and keep the configuration I intended, hope you don't mind and that it helps.

I of course understand, as always, that some or all of you may not agree with my interpretation of the figures and my thoughts. I only give them to you as an alternative to very little or nothing from elsewhere.

As always take care,

And God Bless,

Gordon 45

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Thanks Gordon.

  • golightly
  • 14/10/08 28/08/09
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  • Fri, 25/06/2010 - 08:31

A very big thanks for keeping laymen like myself up-to-date with the figures of possible returns.


Thanks to Gordon

  • sambururob
  • 10/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Fri, 18/06/2010 - 05:47

Asever Gordon, Wendy and I thank you for all your hard work and diligence. You need to know that it is greatly ppreciated by many.
Thank you again.


A BIG THANK YOU Gordon 45,

  • AMG56
  • 13/10/08 29/05/14
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  • Wed, 16/06/2010 - 09:40

A BIG THANK YOU Gordon 45, once again, for all your help. Please keep your thoughts coming.


Gordon's Latest Update

  • Wombat761
  • 30/01/09 20/03/15
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  • Wed, 16/06/2010 - 01:16

Dear Gordon:
Thank you for continuing to work on this. It is REALLY GOOD to have an independent opinion .


@Gordon 45

  • Ohdear
  • 13/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Tue, 15/06/2010 - 19:14

As ever many thanks for your analysis and your thoughts.

As I don't come from financial background, and although I am very comfortable with numbers and Maths, nevertheless some of the figures can be confusing. If you get chance can you please explain what all these mean in respect to actual return to us. For example we are expecting third dividend shortly. How much more and when should we expect. I recall you used to provide Spreadsheet which used to be very clear and they clearly showed the latest situation and how much we should expect and when.

Anyway once again many thanks for all your efforts.


To Ohdear

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Thu, 24/06/2010 - 19:58

Hi Ohdear,

I see Icecrusher has come back to you with some very useful figures. and yes the JLs said we would receive a 3rd dividend in early July, this became 'July' on the 9.6.2010 update when the following was said -

'Third distribution

I can confirm that it is our intention to pay a third distribution in July 2010. The amount of distribution is expected to be in the region of 11%. The amount will be confirmed nearer to the distribution when the amount of cash available is known.'

If the 3rd dividend is 11% that would mean as Icecrusher says we would have received back by July 51% (of what the IOMGov call 100%).

And yes I do post spreadsheets occasionally showing the exact situation re dividends up to the latest info from the JLs and I then guestimate likely returns from the KSFIOM loan book onwards, future returns from E&Y (KSFUK) to PWC and future dividends from PWC (KSFIOM) to us. Trying to take into account costs of liquidation, the Habana situation, unclaimed, unresolved, and any other area where cash is held back to cover future payouts. I have started my new Table No.9 where I will once again try to show what I think will occur over the next 6 years, although I feel that it could go on longer than that. I am up to date including the May info issued by the JLs but await their June monthly figures and the 'fuller' update due out in July. If our 3rd dividend is perhaps now in late July it might be that the 'late July 4th dividend' from E&Y on behalf of KSFUK will be included in our JLs figures. I think they are keen to get to or beyond the 50% return to us all, but it could stretch what they have lying as 'cash in hand' and any cash from E&Y in late July could ease that problem. The reason I say that is when I compare what I was showing in Table 8 at this juncture against my latest update in Table 9 I am around £35m less in cash in hand. Mainly due to the £25m back payments by the JLs in March this year and around £8/£10m less due to the lower amount than expected from E&Y by them lowering the £229m unsecured loan figure on which they base returns to us back to the £205m figure. Albeit the increase to 65% from 60% from them and this 4th dividend due in late July from them is ahead of my schedule which expected returns to PWC from them each summer and December. Whereas it looks as if we wil get back three dividends from them this year - March, late July and I now think hopefully December 2010. Again I think all at 5%.

My previous tables have always allowed for 2 dividends per year, in summer & December from E&Y back to PWC at 5% per dividend (until the lower % figure they estimate is reached). I have also allowed for 2 dividends back to us from PWC, per year, summer & December including some non dividends at certain times because of lack of cash in the coffers.

Assuming our JLs issue data in July similar to that issued by them on 11.12.2009 along with meaningful info on the unclaimed, unresolved, Habana, liquidation costs etc then I should be able to give out a similar table No. 9 to the info on my last Table No.8. And hopefully that will show what we might expect back based on my figures - which I keep saying could be totally wrong - hope not. And with a bit of luck may once again be not to far from the JLs lower expectation or slightly above.

We should have known by now, and I have asked the JL that I speak to whether the Habana claim is now dead or has it gone to the final level of appeal - he has not answered my question yet but the deadline date to enter this final appeal has passed.

So 'Ohdear' hope the above has helped and I will issue my latest data once we get figures from our JLs.

Take care,

Gordon 45


@Ohdear

  • IceCrusher
  • 14/10/08 25/10/11
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  • Tue, 15/06/2010 - 19:56

Ohdear,

If you had say, £200,000 on deposit, then next month you are due a dividend that will take your total returns up to around 51%. This means that you will have received £102,000 back from the liquidator by July 2010. If we assume an overall return of 85% (my conservative estimate) then by 2017 you will have got back £170,000. You could therefore expect the remaining £68k to come back in dividends over the next seven years = about £10k per year or £5k every 6 months. £10k is 5% of £200k and 5% per year seems to be a reasonable expectation; with luck we might do better than that. Difficult to predict your personal circumstances when I don't know how much; DCS or liquidator; joint or single account holder etc, but if you do a few simple sums on the £200k example above you could come up with the approximate figures for £80k or £800k if you wish!
Ice

PS I have kept this straightforward, we don't know how things will pan out, but we can expect more than 50% of our deposit back in total by next month, and the remaining 35% to 40% is expected over the next 6 to 7 years. Perhaps more monies will be brought forward by people paying off their mortgages early this could reduce the number of years to perhaps 4 or 5. We hope, but we don't know for sure.


AM I CORRECT?

  • joyce p
  • 15/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Sat, 19/06/2010 - 16:44

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR THE EASIER EXPLANATION.
AM I RIGHT IN THINKING THAT ON THOSE FIGURES ANYBODY WITH 100K IN SOLE NAME WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTER OFF NOT TAKING THE 50K FROM IOM. AS WE NOW HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE IOM HAVE TAKEN 60% BEFORE WE GET ANY MORE BACK?

WHY DID NOBODY QUESTION HANNAH BEECHAM WHEN SHE PRAISED IOM FOR THEIR
GENEROSITY WHEN MY UNDERSTANDING IS THEY WILL TAKE BACK FROM MIKE SIMPSON AND THEIR EXPENSES ALL THAT HAS BEEN PAID OUT
DID I LOSE THE PLOT SOMEWHERE????

THANK YOU GORDON FOR ALL YOUR HARD WORK.


@Joyce p

  • IceCrusher
  • 14/10/08 25/10/11
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  • Sat, 19/06/2010 - 19:24

As posted by several of us at the time, it would have been better for any single depositor with more than £227,000 to avoid DCS and go for a return directly from the liquidator. This is simply because the first return from the liquidator was 22%, and 22% of £227,000 is ~£50,000.

Anyone with less than £227k would have received £50k from DCS, or the value of their deposit if this was less then £50k. Any single depositor with £100k in the bank would have received £50k, with the remaining £50k subject to dividends from the liquidator. The next dividend expected in July is hinted by the JLs to be around 11% (this is actually their original prediction). If it is 11%, then the total returns to date will be 22%+18%+11% = 51% So, 51% of £100,000 is £51k and those with £100k deposited can expect to receive the difference between the DCS payment of £50k and the dividend of £51k, i.e., you would receive £1,000.

If we assume that the final dividend will be based on 85%, then a single depositor with £100k in the bank can expect to receive £85k in total. Therefore you might expect a further £34,000 to be returned to you after July in the form of dividends for the next 6 or 7 years. I think the JLs originally expected the next dividend to be paid around September 2011 and would be about 18%; it now looks likely that the JLs will pay dividends every 6 months or so and a further 5% in December might be on the cards (don't quote me though!!) If we just guess/hope/wish that happens then 5% would take a single depositor with £100k up to 56% in December which means you would receive a further £5000 bringing your total to £56,000.

I think you can see now that the amount you are entitled to receive should have nothing to do with the DCS manager getting 60% from the liquidator before further payments are made. Once the dividend reaches a point where the percentage return brings about a sum from your original deposit that exceeds the DCS payment of £50k, that is what you should receive.

Just a miserly few depositors put pen to paper to counter Ms Beecham's foolish assertions; if you go back to that Expat Blog site you can read them. I have pasted my own retort below to show that, yes we did make mention of the fact that the IoMG ultimately take back from the JLs all that they have paid out by DCS.

I hope the above proves helpful; I intend to reissue my interactive spreadsheet for those who didn't download it at the time and perhaps further explanation regarding our monies kept in the UK - watch this space!
Ice

Hannah,

As a former depositor with KSFIoM I simply cannot let this 'rose-tinted' appraisal of yours go by without comment. The Isle of Man were obliged to draw on more than one hundred and fifty million pounds of tax payers money in order to fund the 'compensation' scheme - and this because there was no pre-funded monies available. Had another bank failed on the island, the IoM Government would have been overwhelmed.

As it was, no matter what the state of play with the UK and Iceland KSF banks, the IoM subsidiary had plenty of liquidity, but unfortunately it had been foolishly deposited without protection in the UK bank with the full approval of that man Aspden. The bank had a very solid loan book, no substandard borrowers here, all high value, short term mortgages. Were it not for these factors the creditors of the bank would still be whistling in the wind.

The IoMG is getting its 'compensation' money back from the liquidator and is very fortunate indeed that the returns are looking quite favourable. It doesn't matter that any Government has to wait a few years for the money to come back - Governments come and go and the debt gets repaid or written off - not so for depositors who have only finite lives. Many (majority even) depositors trusted the islands regulator with its promises of 100% compensation through the bank's parent, they used this enticement in much of their advertising, but when push came to shove they called it a 'letter of comfort'.

I would not deposit one penny in the Isle of Man or any other offshore bank simply because not one of them has a bank of last resort and their populations are minuscule compared with the debts they could end up owing. It's patently a ridiculous financial gamble that no right-minded thinking individual would ever undertake. Believe me, creditors have much longer and far better memories than any debtor.
Ice


Ice said: "Just a miserly few

  • anrigaut
  • 19/10/08 30/10/09
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  • Sun, 20/06/2010 - 04:02

Ice said: "Just a miserly few depositors put pen to paper to counter Ms Beecham's foolish assertions; if you go back to that Expat Blog site you can read them. I have pasted my own retort below to show that, yes we did make mention of the fact that the IoMG ultimately take back from the JLs all that they have paid out by DCS."

How right he is! Only 5 of us took the trouble to respond to Hannah Beecham's little bit of PR for the IoM, complete with video of Aspden and Spellman. Can't we do better than that? It's still not too late to add your voice. Here is the link: http://expatmoney.blogspot.com/2010/06/promises-pledges-and-whole-pile-o...


Thanks IceCrusher

  • Ohdear
  • 13/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Tue, 15/06/2010 - 20:27

Many thanks for your reply which is very clear and it allows me to work out what to expect.


Gordon 45's Thoughts on JL's May 2010 Figures

  • Stunned Mullet
  • 17/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Tue, 15/06/2010 - 14:14

Gordon,

As always, your help to bring the numbers to life and help see some semblance of possible future likely returns is a comfort to all. Many thanks!


May figures and JL and KSF returns

  • Anonymous
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  • Mon, 14/06/2010 - 18:21

Thank you once again for all your time and effort and giving us your interpretation of the latest figures. I read and reread (and reread again) all you say to try to get to grips with all that is going on and to make sense of it all. I end up only half understanding but how lucky we all are that we have the benefit of someone who can look, see and understand. Whether your interpretation is correct or not is not important. What is important is that we have an interpretation. Thank you