Some thoughts on JLs Feb Data

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
  • a depositor
  • Offline
Posted: Tue, 19/03/2013 - 13:17

Hi Folks,

Below is my Cover Note to go with thoughts on February 2013 Figures. Not a good month, but still looking good for 4.5-5% come June (I think).

Returns for Jan/Feb were £2.604m net, plus a gain in FX of £2.0m. I have allowed for a return between Jan – June 2013 of £11.016m. Returns in Jan/Feb were equal to 14.183% of the year’s requirements of £18.360m (based on my thoughts and calcs). As always all my data is based on GBP, my apologies to all my DAG Colleagues who invested in other currencies.

The ongoing effects caused by the Euro Zone including Spain may have lessened to some degree regarding Overseas Properties as they dropped down to £9.31m (20% of all loans due) in the JLs 9.1.2013 Progress Report. But the 3 yachts still outstanding at £18.38m (40.75% of all outstanding loans), I think, along with the Overseas Properties are mainly in Euro and/or USD. Based on the split by currency, almost 78.385% of loans still due, come from USD, Euros and Swiss Francs. And within that 78.385%, Euros account for 66.661%. In essence loans in Euros account for circa 52.253% of all loans outstanding.

Now getting 99.283% as a lower estimate in returns by December 2014; based on 91.03% by the JLs from our loan book plus my own thoughts on returns during 2013/2014, and the 84.0% return on unsecured creditors loans from E&Y (KSFUK). All allowed for in my figures and Table 13, 2nd Draft.

We are still waiting to hear, about the final appeal by Elle McPherson and date of the appeal by the Privy Council.

  1. As said previously I was guessing at 6 major loans. Based on the JLs updated info in their 9.1.2013 Progress Report I have moved back to a figure of 10 (although still 5/6 big ones really), getting a figure of around £39.807m (93.798%) of the remaining £42.439m still due back from the loan book, at end of February 2013. JLs were talking in terms of 10 largest loans totalling £42.7m of the £45.1m still due back from loans in their 9.1.2013 Progress Report. As said previously these top 2 or 3 loan arrangements cover 5-6 loans including the one loan due back in 2014 £6.674m. And we know the loans within these ‘loan arrangements’ cover different repayment dates, different currencies and different repayment profiles.

2a. My thoughts on the February figures and updates on estimates are all contained in the attachment with this cover note – again to try and retain the format of the layout. My Table 13, 2nd Draft has been updated to allow for the January Progress Report info and the February 2013 Data. The figure due for unresolved claims is I think now £12.094m at end of February and unclaimed still at £1.4m = £13.494m. I have also revamped my Table 13 to take full account of all cash received for February and revamped 2013/2014 to show the new totals due back from loans in these years.

2b. Interest received in January 2013 was £0.100m and £0.0m in Feb. Interest expected over the balance of the Liquidation based on the Jan Progress Report is between £0.2 - £0.3m. I have allocated the higher figure of £0.3m against the balance of the Liquidation and will take off interest as it comes back in. After allowing for the returns since Dec 2012 there is still a total of £0.2m expected to come in.

Jls now saying they hope to pay out 4p/£ during the first half of 2013. I still think there is the chance of a 5.00% return from our JLs by June 2013 (assuming the JLs want to wait until they can pay out least 5p/£). We have around 3.567p/£ available to payout as at 28.2.2013. We will get a further dividend back from E&Y (KSFUK) to our Jls (not us) between 29th April and 22nd June this year (hopefully May), as mentioned in their recent update (let’s assume it is 3% or £7.383m), that would be a big help towards a 5.00p/£ dividend by June this year and bring us up to 96.00%. This also assumes the Euro Zone situation and loans due back from Euros gets no worse. E&Y (KSFUK) currently show a lower estimate of 84.0% based on £246.1m and a higher estimate of 86.5% to non- preferential creditors.

If we get a dividend by June 2013 of 5.00p/£, I think based on my spreadsheet we could then see another final payout by December 2014 of a further 3.283p/£, which would bring our returns up to 99.283%.

Still see nothing from Litigation, nothing new in JLs Jan 13 Progress Report. So I will ignore any return from ‘Parental Guarantee’, E&Y (KSFUK) or Litigation until JLs give definite figures on what to expect from any of these areas. If we get any definitive answers I will then update my Tables to include some form of return and timespan involved.

  1. I feel the JLs total of £23.3m is too low for Liquidation costs. I based my figure of £25m on the info within the last report in July 2012 of an ongoing £775k not paid at that point and still not paid as at the period ending 9.1.2013. Also further information re ongoing costs from 1.4.2012 until 9.1.2013 also not yet paid, have only consolidated my view on this. So £1.7m + £1.517m = £3.217m. Therefore £13.494m + £3.217m = £16.711m. I have asked the JLs again if it was the ‘Lighthouse/Elle McPherson situation that is holding up further movement in the unresolved claims. Still no real answer yet to my question.

  2. JLs still showing costs and back payments under one total – so hard to know the exact figure each month, as was proven when comparing my figures against the JLs Progress Report of 9.1.2013. I will now allocate 75% to costs and 25% to back payments as the two items are still shown under one total by the JLs. Also need to be aware of extra costs involved if we do get to 100% return, as JLs would have to investigate fully how they would go about paying out any interest.

  3. Have added a new spreadsheet when compiling my background data each month; using the JLs estimated return figures on their loan book, their overall estimated returns, my own estimated returns from the KSFIOM loan book and my estimated overall returns, E&Y (KSFUK) estimated returns, plus JLs Cash Balance, current FX fluctuations, ‘Write offs’, Unresolved, Unclaimed and Balance remaining to pay Liquidation costs – all figures as at 9.1.2013 Progress Report. I will down date these starting figures each month to show what is still required in cash terms; to reach that estimated % return. I.e. JLs 91.03% and 91.899% loan book estimates, their overall return estimates of 97.70% and 99.00%, my loan book estimate of 93.769% and overall estimate of 99.283% and E&Y’s 84% and 86.5%.

Feb was not a good month, but we don't require many good months between now and June to reach 5p/£ by June. We will get a return back to our Jls from E&Y (KSFUK) between 22.4.2013 and 22.6.2013 and they say they will come back w/c 29.4.2013 with another update. We, I think, can assume at least 3p/£ back = £7.383m = 0.8158p/£ to us. If they were to give our Jls back 5p/£ that would give us £12.305m = 1.3596p/£.
We had at end of Feb 2013, 3.567p/£ available (I Think), so add 0.8158p/£ to that and you get 4.3828p/£. That means a shortfall of 0.6172p/£ = £5.586m. If our Jls get back the 5p/£ = £12.305m then add 1.3596p/£ to our 3.567p/£ and you get 4.9266p/£. It would appear we therefore need around another net £5.586m or £0.6642m by June. Is that a big ask?

So, having said all of the above, we had 91% back as at 15.6.2012 and there is around 3.567p/£ available to pay out to us as at 28.2.2013 (my thoughts). Hopefully our JLs and E&Y can withstand the Euro Zone and World situations and still deliver on their 91.03% from the loan book and the 84.0% of E&Y lower estimations. We now await the JLs March and April figures along with E&Y’s (KSFUK) April Progress Report and their update w/c 29th April on payment of their next dividend (10th) to our JLs. As said above, could be on target to get 99.283p/£ back, (just slightly higher than the JLs current higher estimate of 99.0p/£), according to my updated calculations. Or if we get the £19.688m from E&Y (KSFUK) to make the 84% and we receive no more from our KSFIOM loan Book we would have 3.567p/£ plus 2.1754p/£ (from the £19.688m) = 5.7474p/£ onto the current 91.0p/£ = 96.7424p/£ - and as said that is not another penny coming back from our loan book (currently £42.439m) – but who knows.

As always,

Take Care, and God Bless,

Gordon 45

4.916665
Your rating: None Average: 4.9 (12 votes)

Comment viewing options
Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.

Thanks Gordon

  • petenorwich
  • 12/10/08 31/05/09
  • unspecified
  • Offline
  • Thu, 21/03/2013 - 08:03

Many thanks Gordon for your continued analysis and updates. Without you, Ice, Anrigaut, Ng and others to keep us all updated, I feel I would have been really quite lost. Many thanks again


Thanks Gordon

  • jenren
  • 10/10/08 31/05/09
  • unspecified
  • Offline
  • Wed, 20/03/2013 - 16:47

Thank you as ever Gordon,

You, Ice, Anrigaut and a few others really are doing a sterling job. I was so active at the beginning of this process, doing news stuff and campaigning but then normal work took over. You guys have kept up a steady-work flow which has done so so much and kept us informed. Thank you!!!

I wish your important messages didn't get so lost in the long list of jokes that get posted here. Sorry, they were a light relief in the depths of despair but now I just find they get in the way.

PS for those that know us, my mum now has a lovely little house in York and is very happy! (for those that don't she had proceeds of her house sale in the bank and no savings). This site was a godsend at that time and I am forever thankful!


Mark's jokes

  • petenorwich
  • 12/10/08 31/05/09
  • unspecified
  • Offline
  • Thu, 21/03/2013 - 07:58

Sorry I have to disagree about Mark's jokes. Maybe I am still in need of light relief, but I like them. And, let's be honest, are there really a million new posts, and is it really so hard to navigate away from the jokes?

Keep it up Mark, you have given me many a chuckle over the last 4 years.


Mark's jokes

  • steve
  • 14/10/08 31/05/09
  • unspecified
  • Offline
  • Thu, 21/03/2013 - 15:36

hear hear. I love reading all of Mark's jokes, they are always my first port of call, the naughtier the better!!
Keep 'em coming, we all love it!! I miss them when you go away. I don't know where you get them all from!

Best wishes to you all


jenren

  • cottesmore
  • 21/10/08 16/07/12
  • a depositor
  • Offline
  • Wed, 20/03/2013 - 18:36

I agree with you sentiments regarding peoples efforts.If you guys find my, 'distractions/jokes' off putting and in the way,i will, of course. stop immediately.It may well be time to call it a day.There is no way i want to interfere with the information that is so welcome.Your call guys.PS i want be offended!!
Mark.


COTTESMORE JOKES PAGE

  • mikepapa
  • 10/10/08 n/a (free)
  • a depositor
  • Offline
  • Thu, 21/03/2013 - 15:53

Dear Mark,

I certainly endorse your thanks to our three front line serious contributors to the site.

Nevertheless, your page has been, and always will be, more than welcome - where else would we get our jokes for the weekend? Please keep it up.

Kind regards,

Mike


Outvoted!

  • jenren
  • 10/10/08 31/05/09
  • unspecified
  • Offline
  • Fri, 22/03/2013 - 15:10

I have been out voted! Oh dear. May the jokes continue!


It's all good

  • Cawdor
  • 13/10/08 31/05/09
  • a depositor
  • Offline
  • Mon, 25/03/2013 - 04:54

Just want to record my thanks again to Gordon and others who keep tabs on what's happening and pass it on, often explaining/simplifying for simple folk like me.
And the jokes are there for those who want. My mouse has drifted there from time to time and they often cheered during the darker days.
I really feel a sense of community here (Yes, maybe I should get out more often)
Thanks to all.


next pay out

  • chipmunk
  • 13/10/08 31/05/09
  • unspecified
  • Offline
  • Sun, 31/03/2013 - 21:51

any update on the next payout to us and the percentage ?.?

thanks


Next pay out

  • mikepapa
  • 10/10/08 n/a (free)
  • a depositor
  • Offline
  • Mon, 01/04/2013 - 15:16

Extracts from Gordon's thoughts posted at the top of this page!!

" Below is my Cover Note to go with thoughts on February 2013 Figures. Not a good month, but still looking good for 4.5-5% come June (I think). "

" Jls now saying they hope to pay out 4p/£ during the first half of 2013. I still think there is the chance of a 5.00% return from our JLs by June 2013 (assuming the JLs want to wait until they can pay out least 5p/£). "

Inter alia ;-)

Mike