Some thoughts on JLs April Data + Estimates

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
  • a depositor
  • Offline
Posted: Sun, 19/05/2013 - 15:32

Hi Folks,

Cover Note to go with thoughts on April 2013 Figures

Returns for Jan/April were £5.333m net, plus a gain in FX of £1.5m. I have allowed for a return between Jan – June 2013 of £11.016m. Returns in Jan/April were equal to 29.046% of the year’s requirements of £18.360m (based on my thoughts and calcs). As always all my data is based on GBP, my apologies to all my DAG Colleagues who invested in other currencies.

The Euro Zone situation (including Spain) may have lessened regarding Overseas Properties as they accounted for £9.31m (20% of all loans due) as at the JLs 9.1.2013 Progress Report. But the 3 yachts still outstanding at £18.38m (40.75% of all outstanding loans), I think, along with the Overseas Properties are mainly in Euro and some USD. Based on the split by currency, almost 79.472% of loans still due, come from USD, Euros and Swiss Francs. And within that 79.472%, Euros account for 66.525%. In essence loans in Euros account for circa 51.811% of all loans outstanding.

Now getting 99.230% as a lower estimate in returns by December 2014; based on 91.03% by the JLs from our loan book plus my own thoughts on returns during 2013/2014, and the 84.0% return on unsecured creditors loans from E&Y (KSFUK).

We are still waiting to hear, about the final appeal by Elle McPherson and date of the appeal by the Privy Council.

  1. Based on the JLs info for the 10 largest loans (although still 5 big ones really), I’m getting a figure of around £37.981m (95.836%) of the remaining £39.631m still due back from the loan book, at end of April 2013. We know the loans within these ‘loan arrangements’ cover different repayment dates, different currencies and different repayment profiles.

2a. My thoughts on the April figures and updates on estimates are all contained in the attachment with this cover note – again to try and retain the format of the layout. My Table 13, 4th Draft has been updated to allow for the April 2013 Data. The figure due for unresolved claims is still, I think, £12.094m at end of April and unclaimed still at £1.4m = £13.494m.

2b. Interest received this year so far £0.100m plus £0.0m in April. Interest expected over the balance of the Liquidation based on the Jan Progress Report is between £0.2 - £0.3m. I allocated the higher figure of £0.3m against the balance of the Liquidation and will take off interest as it comes back in. After allowing for the returns since Dec 2012 there is still a total of £0.2m expected to come in.

Jls now said they hope to pay out 4p/£ w/c 23.6.2013. I still think there is the chance of a 5.00% return from our JLs by June 2013. We have around 3.8325p/£ available to payout as at 30.4.2013. We expect 2p/£ back from E&Y w/c 3.6.2013, equals £4.922m (0.5438p/£ to us), and if we discount my higher Liquidation costs of £1.7m more than the JLs, that would add another 0.1878p/£ giving a total of £4.5641p/£ available to pay out to us. Leaving May and up to mid June to make up the net shortfall of £3.945m (0.4359p/£) to give us 5p/£.

If we get a dividend by June 2013 of 5.00p/£, I think based on my spreadsheet we could then see another final payout by December 2014 of a further 3.230p/£, which would bring our returns up to 99.230%.

Nothing new re Litigation, in JLs Jan 13 Progress Report. So will continue to ignore any return from ‘Parental Guarantee’, E&Y (KSFUK) or Litigation until JLs give definite figures on what to expect from any of these areas. If we get any definitive answers I will then update my Tables to include some form of return and timespan involved.

  1. Still think the JLs total of £23.3m is too low for Liquidation costs. I based my figure of £25m on the info within the JLs Progress Report of July 2012 of an ongoing £775k not paid at that point, no change by Progress Report of 9.1.2013. It contained further information re ongoing costs from 1.4.2012 until 9.1.2013 also not yet paid, this has only consolidated my view. So £1.7m + £1.483m = £3.183m. I have again asked the JLs if it was the ‘Lighthouse/Elle McPherson situation that is holding up further movement in the unresolved claims. Still no real answer yet to my question, so £12.094m unresolved + £1.4m unclaimed = £13.494m.

  2. JLs still showing costs and back payments under one total – so hard to know the exact figure each month, I now allocate 75% to costs and 25% to back payments. Also need to be aware of extra costs involved if we do get to 100% return, as JLs would have to investigate fully how they would go about paying out any interest.

  3. Have added a new spreadsheet when compiling my background data each month; using the JLs estimated return figures on their loan book, their overall estimated returns, my own estimated returns from the KSFIOM loan book and my estimated overall returns, E&Y (KSFUK) estimated returns, plus JLs Cash Balance, current FX fluctuations, ‘Write offs’, Unresolved, Unclaimed and Balance remaining to pay Liquidation costs – using figures from JLs 9.1.2013 Progress Report as the base starting point. I will down date these starting figures each month to show what is still required in cash terms; to reach that estimated % return. I.e. JLs 91.03% and 91.899% loan book estimates, their overall return estimates of 97.70% and 99.00%, my loan book estimate of 93.769% and overall estimate of 99.283% and E&Y’s 84% and 86.5%.

So, having said all of the above, we had 91% back as at 15.6.2012 and there is around 3.8325p/£ available to pay out to us as at 30.4.2013 (my thoughts). Hopefully our JLs and E&Y can withstand the Euro Zone and World situations and still deliver on their 91.03% from the loan book and the 84.0% of E&Y lower estimations. We now await the JLs May figures and then up to mid June to see what our 8th dividend will be. As said above, could be on target to get 99.230p/£ back, (just slightly higher than the JLs current higher estimate of 99.0p/£), according to my updated calculations. Or if we only get the £19.688m from E&Y (KSFUK) to make the 84% and we receive no more from our KSFIOM loan Book we would have 3.8325p/£ plus 2.1754p/£ (from the £19.688m) = 6.0079p/£ onto the current 91.0p/£ = 97.0079p/£ - and as said that is not another penny coming back from our loan book (currently £39.631m) – but who knows.

As always,

Take Care, and God Bless,

Gordon 45

4.454545
Your rating: None Average: 4.5 (11 votes)

Comment viewing options
Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.

As always, thank you Gordon,

  • Yoda
  • 21/10/08 31/05/09
  • unspecified
  • Offline
  • Mon, 20/05/2013 - 13:41

As always, thank you Gordon, for making everything so much clearer! I always look to you for clarity!
Who ever thought we would get this close to our magical figure of 100%!

Best wishes, as always


Parental Guarantee - Coverage

  • D RAM
  • 13/10/08 01/08/14
  • unspecified
  • Offline
  • Mon, 20/05/2013 - 12:57

Thanks for your detailed analysis.

I realise any recovery under the parental guarantee may be somewhat doubtful, however, being an optimist, can you clarify for me whether the parental guarantee only covers any deficit to reach 100% of the "Amount admitted for dividend" or does it also cover the "Deferred interest" (to 8 October 2008) and possible interest since 8 October 2008 ?

Incidentally, are the "Aircraft" referred to in your attachment the "Yachts" referred to in your Cover Note ?

Keep up the good work, greatly appreciated.


To D RAM

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
  • a depositor
  • Offline
  • Tue, 21/05/2013 - 21:08

Hi There D RAM,

Thanks re the above. I see Anrigaut has answered your question on interest, far better than I could - Thanks Anrigaut.

Re your question on Yachts and aircraft. I am referring to two different situations in my cover note and then my thoughts on the JLs April data.

In my cover note 2nd para, I am referring to the loans still due on the 3 yachts worth £18.38m based on the JLs Jan Progress Report, I felt, and still do, £18.38m (40.75%) out of a loan book worth £45.10m is highly significant in relation to getting cash back in from those Loans. Especially as I Think they must be part of the 4/5 big loans still due from 2012 and now late in being paid back.

The Yachts and Aircraft referred to in my 1st para on thoughts on the JLs april figures refer indeed to both Yachts & Aircraft loans still applicable within the JLs January Progress Report - the Yachts loans were worth £18.38m and the aircraft loans worth £1.42m. The £1.42m is of far less significance to us when I was attempting to recalc expected returns from all sectors of the KSFIOM loan book based on the JLs Jan Progress Report. But I obviously included the Aircraft aspect also.

So I was making two different points with regard to Yachts and the Aircraft. And obviously I guessed a different % return from these two different parts of the loan portfolio in my estimates, when trying to guess the likely returns we coud expect from the loan book.

Hope the above clarifies what I was saying and doing,

Cheers,

Gordon 45


Re parental guarantee

  • anrigaut
  • 19/10/08 30/10/09
  • a depositor
  • Offline
  • Mon, 20/05/2013 - 15:44

Hi D RAM,

I don't think anyone (including the JLs !) yet knows for sure what the PG will cover. However, we do know that the claim originally submitted by KSFIOM certainly included a claim for interest. How much, if any, of that will eventually be agreed by the K hf WuC remains to be seen! I understand there are ongoing negotiations, not least to determine whether the claim should be based on Manx or Icelandic insolvency law.