Some thoughts on the JLs April Data + estimated returns

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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Posted: Tue, 08/05/2012 - 22:00

Hi Folks,

Cover Note to go with thoughts on April 2012 Figures

January returns were low followed by a good February, March saw a return of £1.019m and April a very good return of £7.461m If you read my updated estimates that included the 31.1.2012 figures and the relevant data from the JLs 9.1.2012 Progress Report you would see I modified the expected returns to 25% from the KSFIOM loan book, for the months Jan – June 2012, based on the JLs information that the loans due back were heavily weighted towards Nov/Dec 2012 (JLs have now surpassed my thoughts of 25% between Jan-June – which is great, but it was only a guess on my part). That also meant I then allocated the remaining 75% against July – Dec 2012 (I have now revamped what is due between July-Dec accordingly). Returns for 2013 I left at a 50/50% split. All my data is based on GBP, my apologies to all my DAG Colleagues who invested in other currencies.

I’m now getting 99.248% as a lower estimate in returns by December 2014; based on 89.08% by the JLs from our loan book plus my own thoughts on returns during 2012/2014, and an 81% return on unsecured creditors loans from E&Y (KSFUK).

Still waiting to hear, now about the appeal by Elle McPherson to the Privy Council – the Supreme Appeals court in the IOM re her ‘set off’ situation.

  1. Not sure if our dependence on ‘pulling in cash’ from later years is very relevant from now on. But will show short sharp figures.

· In 2009 approx £48m brought in early from 2010/2016, a return of £13.33%
· In 2010 approx £53.029m brought in early from 2011/2016, a return of between 17.032% and 19.003%.
· In 2011 £40.260m brought in early from 2012/2016, a return of 35.407%.
· In 2012, January/April, £2.749m brought in early from 2013/2014, a return of 10.356% from £26.544m. Not that far from the 2009 figure now.

  1. In respect of the remaining 10 large loans, I was guessing a figure of around £52m (77.089%) of the remaining £67.454m still due back from the loan book, at end of April 2012.

Still think the 10 large loans split by year is as follows: 7 of the 10 loans are due in 2012, 2 in 2013 and 1 in 2014. But whether the two large loans are included in 2012, or one in 2013 is up for grabs, but would probably think 2012 now. The 10 large loans are still very significant, especially if 7 are due in 2012.

2a. My thoughts on the April figures and updates on estimates are all contained in the attachment with this cover note – again to try and retain the format of the layout. My Table 12 (5th draft) has been updated to allow for April 2012, and the £24.610m back from E&Y (KSFUK) on 2.5.2012. I now get 99.248p/£ return overall. The figure still due for unresolved claims is now £11.830m at end of April and unclaimed still at £1.6m = £13.430m. I have revamped my Table 12 to take full account of all cash received so far up to 30.4.2012. I have revamped 2012 to 2014 to show the new totals due back from loans. I have once again taken note of estimated interest the JLs expect to receive over the balance of the Liquidation. Based on the amount estimated still due of between £0.9m to £1.2m (9.1.2012 Progress Report) and the amount received in January to April of £0.640m I have allocated the high estimate of £1.2m all against Jan- June 2012. And as I cannot differentiate between interest & other income received in the monthly updates, I take all of that as interest. So if I take the receipt of £0.640m up to end of April, off the balance of £1.2m it leaves a balance of £0.560m still to come over the balance of the Liquidation.
I also think based on perhaps another 5p/£ back from E&Y (KSFUK) by late Dec 2012 that there may be a further dividend from our JLs by Dec12/Feb13 of another 5p/£ to us, thus bringing us up to around 95.8%.

And I think based on my spreadsheet we could then see a final payout by December 2014 of a further 3.448p/£, which would bring our returns up to 99.248%.

So, having said the above, my thoughts still allow no gains from ‘Parental Guarantee’, but there could be some gains from E&Y’s claim against Kaupthing hf (based on E&Y latest progress report at 7.4.2012), but not allowed for in my Spreadsheet. Still see nothing either from litigation. So I see no point in including hoped for cash back at this point. Must also take note of the new current Euro Zone and ongoing World situation.

  1. As said I will ignore any return from ‘Parental Guarantee’ until JLs give definite figures on what to expect on any return from Iceland. If we get a definitive answer I will then update my Tables to include some form of return and timespan involved. Until then we should ignore it totally.

Based on the E&Y (KSFUK) Progress Report of 7.4.2012, the main claim has been accepted by the Kaupthing hf ‘Winding up Committee’, but the amount agreed has not yet been given; as some form agreement has to be finalised to cover any counter claim against KSFUK by another creditor (allowed by Icelandic Bankruptcy Laws). It is an unsecured claim and therefore could be a return of only around 25% of the agreed amount of the claim. Taken in the context of unsecured creditors of KSFUK being in the region of £4.6bn I think it could mean in the region of an additional 2.0p/£ to us from E&Y, or around 0.543p/£ from our JLs to us – but we need to wait and see. .

One last point, I think worth mentioning again, is the split of loans by currency still due at this time. Loans due back in GBP are less than the other currencies put together. GBP £23.059m, the approximate amount in foreign currencies is - USD in equiv GBP equal £13.060m, Euros in equiv GBP is £30.857m and Swiss Francs £2.241m. So approx 66.684% in foreign currencies, of which 66.850% is in Euro Loans.

So, having said all of the above, we should still feel really good after the April 2012 figures. We have to hope our JLs and E&Y can withstand the ongoing European and World situations and still deliver on their 89.08% from the loan book plus my own thoughts (that are higher), and the 81% of E&Y lower estimations. Let’s see how things ‘pan out’ over 2012. As said above, could be on target to get 99.248p/£ back according to my calculations – but who knows.

As always,

Take Care, and God Bless,

Gordon 45

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Thank you Gordon

  • fight theft
  • 10/10/08 28/05/13
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  • Mon, 28/05/2012 - 00:13

As always we are so grateful to your dedication accuracy and expertise and many thanks for making everything so simple to understand for we non- accountant mathematical genius brains. Also a big thank you for giving us hope and keeping us sane with your estimated returns which have to date been very accurate. Gordon- What would we have done without you.

Gordon's Account Trail

  • Wombat761
  • 30/01/09 20/03/15
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  • Thu, 24/05/2012 - 01:18

Thanks again Gordon for your extremely helpful and professional updates on our likely returns

Thank you for such a

  • Clogs2
  • 20/10/08 31/08/09
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  • Wed, 23/05/2012 - 12:20

Thank you for such a comprehensive explanation and an upbeat positive message after all we have been through. Really appreciate your hard work.

Thank you Gordon

  • Lifeonhold
  • 18/10/08 30/06/13
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  • Wed, 09/05/2012 - 16:12

Thank you Gordon, you've put so much hard work into keeping us informed and I just wanted to let you know that we really appreciate it.