Some Thoughts on the JLs 9.1.2015 - '6 Monthly' Progress Report

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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Posted: Mon, 02/03/2015 - 17:02

Hi Folks,

Here are my thoughts on the JLs ,6 Monthly ' Progress Report dated 9.1.2015.

Having read the latest report I now detail my thoughts on it below. This post contains what I think are the main points in the January 2015 Progress Report. Again I could have missed points or disregarded some points that are important to others;

I will now amend my Dec 2014,Table 15, data spreadsheet and other back up data to include information from this Report, and then await the quarterly update due at the end of March 2015.

Page 6 – Dividends & Dividend Range - Estimated final outcome now changed from the previous 99.0% – 99.6%. We did receive 2% in November 2014 to reach 100% back. Based on this report there could be further returns on the loan book leading to an overall return of between 100.176% -100.276%. This takes no account of any returns under the PG, Litigation or a higher return on the loan book. The JLs are still hopeful of a better outcome than they have used in their projections.

Any more returns will be by way of interest we have lost. Creditors entitled to contractual interest in excess of 5% would receive the amount due in excess of 5% up to the 8.10.2008.

Creditors not entitled to contractual interest would receive 4% on amounts owed up to 8.10.2008. This amount would be small.

Once the above two steps have been completed all creditors will have received interest entitlements up to 8.10.2008. In respect of further interest payments, JLs will shortly be applying to the Court to seek directions on the calculation methodology.

Note, it is intended that one further dividend will be paid to creditors in respect of each class of interest. Timing and amount will depend on realisation of remaining assets. To me that means Loan Book, PG and Litigation. I thought based on the above that some Creditors might get two payments.

We can expect a further ‘6 monthly’ update dated 9.7.2015 (Page 6).

Note cost of ‘hedging’ for Euro & US Dollar finished at £2.038m (Page 7 chart).

JLs sold off balance due from KSFUK for £18.5m and that in essence allowed for our last 2% dividend in November 2014.

Returns from KSFIOM loan book have moved up from previous 92.5% - 92.80% (by deduction) to between 92.7% - 93.0% (by deduction), (Page 7 chart). A small increase in both lower and upper estimated returns – good news.

The JLs speak of the 10 remaining loans (facilities) on page 12. In page 11 they also speak of 7 ‘relationships’. Outstanding sterling equivalent capital value is £26.6m. Only one larger ‘relationship’ totalling £14.2m

Loan book, page 13 shows £26.6m still due. JLs now showing the remaining loans in GBP, Euros, USD and Swiss Francs. No details regarding Property, Yachts, Aircraft, or which countries the loans refer to. In currency terms 53.0% of loans due are in Euros (£14.1m), 15.0% GBP (£4.0m), USD at £6.1m equals 22.9% and Swiss Francs £2.4m equals 9.0% of the outstanding £26.6m.

‘Write – offs’ still less than 1%. But if JLS really start ‘clamping down’ on remainder of non-payment of loans surely ‘write –offs’ must start rising substantially very soon.

Non Performing loans – page 14 - All remaining loans now overdue as at end of June 2014 – which we already knew. Really no info on current state of loans not paid back. Some general info re how JLs are going about things, nothing substantial – I find it quite disappointing even taking into account confidentiality.

Page 15 re Unresolved & Unclaimed. JLs now showing £2.7m Unresolved and £1.5m Unclaimed. Keep hoping JLs will finalise ‘Unresolved’ claims very quickly now, while finalising loan book and await developments on PG and any Litigation. ‘Unclaimed’ has to wait until the end of the Liquidation Process.

Page 14 – Parental Guarantee - No change - We all know JLs have won their case in principle and that our claim is non-priority and only an ordinary unsecured claim. Still awaiting any indication as to the likely recovery from the Kaupthing hf Winding up Committee (and we also know the Icelandic Government [their masters], have to give any go ahead to pay out in any foreign currency). Slight change re Glitner situation but none re Kaupthing hf yet. So could be a long way to go.

Page 14 - Investigation – This is in relation to the Bank’s Directors re the ‘winding up order’. A report on the investigation and potential follow up actions was put to the COI on 12th November 2010. End of story as JLs cannot disclose any more due to risk of prejudicing further proceedings – we await what happens next or does not happen next – so no change yet again.

Pages 8 & 16 - Liquidation costs – Page 8 total paid so far inc VAT is £25.075m. Total on Page 16 does not include VAT - a spend of £23.7m compared to their previously estimated overall total of £24.3m. Note there is still an outstanding small cost due as at 28th November 2014 of £174.8k. Jls also state they are no longer able to provide an estimate of further Liquidation costs due to challenges faced with payment of interest as well as the recovery of remaining loans. They do not mention further costs for any Litigation or costs regarding the PG.

The continuing down bits are;

·No hoped for end date to the Liquidation yet, due to PG claim against Kaupthing hf, Litigation and the uncertainty of recovery from balance of loans and when.

·Parental Guarantee – no further forward

·Still balance of £2.7m Unresolved – to be resolved + £1.5m Unclaimed.

·The Investigation into the circumstances leading up to the Directors decision to seek a winding up order in respect of KSFIOM – no further forward

The above are the comments I felt were worth making. Other people may have others that I have missed, or I felt not important enough to mention. Have updated my Spreadsheet, table 15, 1st draft. Based on this Progress Report. Based on current cash total of £5.9m there is now £1.663m net available for payments. This takes no account of further costs/expenses, as JLs feel they cannot estimate requirements. So it must be noted if there is no further intake of cash from loan book etc this £1.663m will fall as costs come in.

The non-increase in ‘Write offs’ is good and bad – as based on the JLs estimates of recovery on the remaining loans being very low, it would appear substantial ‘write offs’ must start soon. JLs think of losses between £24.1m - £25.1m (by Deduction) out of the remaining £26.6m due back from the loan book.

JLs as said earlier now moving to quarterly updates instead of monthly updates. Next report therefore due at the end of March 2015.

Hopefully the JLs can somehow sell on the PG position, but in the meantime deal urgently with the loan book situation, deal with the ‘Unresolved and come to a conclusion re any Litigation.

Take care,

And God Bless

Gordon 45

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April repayment

  • sambururob
  • 10/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Tue, 21/04/2015 - 08:31

Dear Gordon,
Does the £2.5m facility repayment in April make much difference to us?
Thanks for posting it Anrigaut.
Rob and Wendy


To Rob & Wendy

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Tue, 21/04/2015 - 10:40

Hi there folks,

Saw we had the March Data through late last night thanks to Anrigaut. and that she has answered your question - once again thanks Anrigaut.

Did some work on my calcs last night - lot easier now, far less to go through. Agree with Anrigaut entirely - I had £3.4m in mind and we should have around £4.27m 'free' including the £2.5m received in April, according to my calcs, although don't know what is required for Liquidation Expenses now as JLs do not give a figure.

Just got to finish my thoughts and I'll then post. Do have some urgent personal business that is ongoing at present. If I don't manage to finish my stuff before I go back out around 1pm I will get back on to it tonight - probably after 8.30pm. So hopefully either post my stuff before I go, or post it around 10pm tonight.

Sorry for the delay if it happens.

Yours,

Gordon 45


Re April repayment

  • anrigaut
  • 19/10/08 30/10/09
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  • Tue, 21/04/2015 - 09:11

Hi Rob & Wendy,

Apart from the fact that it can only be good news, my rough calculations (based on incomplete information!) would suggest that the JLs might now be in a position to pay out the deferred interest (ie the part of the uncapitalised interest up to Oct 2008 that was capped in our agreed claims - a total of around £3.6m) should they so choose. I've just emailed Mike Simpson on this and will post again if I get any answer.

Cheers,
anrigaut


April Repayment

  • D RAM
  • 13/10/08 01/08/14
  • unspecified
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  • Tue, 21/04/2015 - 14:19

Good news indeed.

Now one of the outstanding loans has been repaid in full and hopefully further recoveries will follow it is all the more imperative that the JLs get the needed guidance from the court on whether interest is payable in addition to payment of the deferred interest.


April Repayment

  • D RAM
  • 13/10/08 01/08/14
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  • Tue, 21/04/2015 - 14:18

Good news indeed.

Now one of the outstanding loans has been repaid in full and hopefully further recoveries will follow it is all the more imperative that the JLs get the needed guidance from the court on whether interest is payable in addition to payment of the deferred interest.


Thanks Anrigaut. We hope Mike

  • sambururob
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  • Tue, 21/04/2015 - 10:05

Thanks Anrigaut. We hope Mike Simpson appeciates that every little helps !!


Gordon's (and others) Readings on the Expected "final" return

  • Wombat761
  • 30/01/09 20/03/15
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  • Thu, 02/04/2015 - 00:29

Thank you Gordon & others to all for all your efforts. I feel extremely lucky to have received 100% of "Capital" . This is not to say I'm not disappointed that it took so long. But nevertheless the lost -opportunity costs of the KSF Debacle continue to mount.and the interest issue and un-repaid loans must be pressed on with by the JLs.
Regards
Wombat761


Remaining Loans

  • D RAM
  • 13/10/08 01/08/14
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  • Wed, 04/03/2015 - 16:44

Dear Gordon,

Thanks for your clarification of the JL's 6-monthly report to 9 January 2015 but I consider several aspects of their report too vague at this late stage :

  1. I appreciate that the JLs have done well as regards Loan Book recovery to date but am puzzled why they have not given us a clear statement specific to their expected recoveries from the 10 outstanding loans totalling GBP 26.6 million [ I suggest we should expect at least GBP 8 million - 90% of the GBP 4 million (generally secured on UK real estate in a rising market) plus say (conservatively) 20% of the foreign currency loans (generally secured on overseas property which although in depressed markets must surely have some residual value)].

  2. I suggest they should now be able to give us a reasonable estimate as to when the Loan Book will be wrapped up as all of the loans have been in default since June 2014 and thus hopefully the JLs are vigorously following up recoveries through the court systems in the relevant jurisdictions. But are they?

  3. It appears that the JLs have still to make application to the Manx court as to how to handle possible payment of interest in excess of any future deferred interest (to 8 October 2008). Given that it appears reasonably certain that monies will be available to pay such excess interest, it appears disappointing that the JLs have apparently not yet made such application. Why the apparent delay?

I'm open to correction in regard to the foregoing otherwise I suggest that these are issues for the Creditors Committee to follow up with the JLs.


Re: Remaining Loans/Excess

  • Knife Edge
  • 10/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Thu, 05/03/2015 - 10:39

Hi D RAM and Gordon

I wanted to let you know that (thanks to anrigaut's indefatigable monitoring of this and the other site's forum and support (across the board)), I am aware of your queries and comments. I am limited in what I can say, of course, but I would just note the following:

  • not all the outstanding loans are "straightforward" (either legally or commercially)
  • as we reach the end of the loan book, the ones outstanding are what you might call the dregs in the bottle, and thus are not a marketable asset (in terms of wrapping things up quickly). Enforcement proceedings necessarily are often complicated and time consuming - and this is exacerbated by the cross-border nature of some of them. The COI has been unambiguous and consistent about not letting any debtor 'off the hook'.
  • the JLs are - imho, not the COI's - remiss in not preparing the court documents relating to the possible payment of any excess, and I will be following up with them on this immediately.

I will get back in touch with any update I can share.

Thank you for the prompt, and for your continued input.

K E


Thanks Knife Edge

  • D RAM
  • 13/10/08 01/08/14
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  • Thu, 05/03/2015 - 12:27

Thanks so much for your informative and prompt reply. I hope you don't think I was being too aggressive in my comments. I assure you that I am very appreciative of all your hard work and that of the rest of the COI, and,of course, Anrigaut and Gordon. Well done to you all.


Follow-up

  • Knife Edge
  • 10/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Sat, 07/03/2015 - 07:02

Hi again

Thanks for your kind words. The JLs have prodded the lawyers for the court documents in response to my querying this with them, so we can say we've have had some impact.

All the best
K E


Wrapping-up

  • D RAM
  • 13/10/08 01/08/14
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  • Sun, 08/03/2015 - 14:53

Thanks for your follow-up. Obviously to refine the claim against Kaupthing, Iceland and advance towards wrapping up the liquidation of KSF(IOM) the JLs need to expeditiously :

(i) prepare an update of estimated recovery from the remaining Loan Book

(ii) get the Court's ruling on whether any interest is due to creditors of KSF (IOM) once "deferred interest" is paid out to creditors

Given that the remaining loans are the "dregs in the bottle" (i) looks difficult to achieve with any certainty but, even if zero, (ii) should be sorted out asap so that a more realistic claim against Kaupthing, Iceland can be lodged (currently GBP 904 million? which is surely far in excess of a realistic claim).


Re: Wrapping-up

  • Knife Edge
  • 10/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Mon, 09/03/2015 - 11:10

Hi again

That's all noted and agreed, of course.

K E


Thank you Gordon. Your

  • sambururob
  • 10/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Wed, 04/03/2015 - 16:31

Thank you Gordon. Your thoughts are always appreciated.
Rob and Wendy