Some Thoughts on the JLs 9.1.2014 Progress Report

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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Posted: Fri, 21/02/2014 - 18:08

Hi Folks,

Attaching my thoughts on the JLs 9.1.2014 Progress Report. No really big surprises, positive or negative. Will update my spreadsheets etc based on the info.

And once I update my info based on the JLs end of January report I will isue my updated thoughts then on where I think we are.

Hope you all have a fantastic year in 2014,

Cheers,

Gordon 45

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@gordon 45 -thanks

  • expatvictim
  • 10/10/08 01/11/10
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  • Sun, 23/02/2014 - 18:28

Gordon thanks as ever for an informative summary, although from my perspective not a lot of new news other than perhaps resolution (in some shape or form) of the Light house Living case. I picked the following additional titbits from the report:

As you say the loan write offs have to come soon. By my reckoning and excluding the 2.2M returned in January the JLs are assuming approximately 7M worth of outstanding loans are somewhat reliable and the remaining will be all or mostly written off. I am as hopeful as they are but they must have some insight as to why they expect the 3 top relationships (presumably) plus some smaller one(s) to default and not to have any recoverable value. Not for the first time let’s hope they are being conservative in their approach. We should know in the next 6 months

Unresolved versus resolved: A large (8.3M) reduction in unresolved claims but interesting to note that this amount only involved 2 cases; resolved cases increased from 8325 to 8327. Not sure if this is as a direct result of the Lighthouse case resolution.

Interestingly the Lighthouse Living case is still listed on the Privy Council web site as a Current Case but the date is now listed as “to be confirmed”. The date entry has apparently been changed in the last month or so. Probably a case of slow government wheels/ process. New link - http://jcpc.uk/cases/case_2012_0014.html as they have changed the JPC website pages since Anrigaut posted a link last September.


Re Lighthouse Living

  • anrigaut
  • 19/10/08 30/10/09
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  • Tue, 11/03/2014 - 09:21

Hi Expatvictim,

I too had noticed this case was still listed on the JCPC website (the date entry was changed in October, just after the date originally fixed). So I raised the matter with Mike Simpson, who has now confirmed to me that, while he cannot explain the Court website, the Lighthouse matter is definitely closed, that there will be no further legal action and that the bank recovered "all amounts owing".


RE RE Lighthouse living

  • expatvictim
  • 10/10/08 01/11/10
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  • Tue, 11/03/2014 - 22:31

That's good news Anrigaut. Thank you for addressing with Mr Simpson on all our behalves. .


Thanks expatvictim

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Sun, 23/02/2014 - 23:47

Hi expatvictim,

Thanks for your thoughts all good.

Of the £33.9m still due back as at 9.1.2014 - £24.9m or 73.45% - £7.1m was for Overseas Properties and £17.8m for the 3 yachts, probably mainly all in Euros/USD. Perhaps that's why the JLs are being very cautious. If so you would have to agree with them. Although, perhaps foolishly, I expect more based on my own calcs.

Re the drop in Unresolved. The JLs did tell me previously that the Lighthouse situ was linked to the Unresolved cases. So think your thoughts could be correct.

I do think based on the JLs data in the Prog Report that the case was probably held back pending the two parties coming to some form of agreement/compromise. and yes you are probably right in that it is 'a case of slow government wheels/ process'.

Thanks again,

Yours,

Gordon 45


2014 - A Disapointing Year for Returns ?

  • D RAM
  • 13/10/08 01/08/14
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  • Sun, 23/02/2014 - 05:51

Thanks Gordon for your splendid analysis. However, it appears that the remainder of 2014 is going to be bleak for further returns from KSF(UK) and the outstanding loan facilities. The JLs forecast a dividend to us in 2014 of about 2p in the pound but as at end January there are already sufficient funds available to repay 1.7p. Thus it appears the JLs only anticipate gathering in sufficient monies to add a further 0.3p or so (about 3M pounds?) in the remainder of 2014. Hopefully the JLs are being unduly pessimistic.

All the best to everyone,

DRAM


@D RAM

  • anrigaut
  • 19/10/08 30/10/09
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  • Sun, 23/02/2014 - 09:35

Hi there,

I have no firm information, but in an email from Mike Simpson in December I was given to understand that he expected the " large repayments" to come through after Easter (which might explain why he is now saying the next dividend will be "during 2014" and not, as previously stated, "in the first half of 2014"). As to the amount, I can only hope that he is simply being cautious - rather than necessarily pessimistic - and not wishing to count our chickens ... But I'm only guessing - I know nothing more.

Note also that 2p/£ forecast in the progress report was based on the situation at 9 Jan and thus pre-dates the £2.5m recovered in January.


Thanks to Gordon and Anrigaut

  • sambururob
  • 10/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Sun, 23/02/2014 - 17:15

Thanks to Gordon and Anrigaut for their thoughts. At least there is no bad news !
Keep smiling everyone
Rob and Wendy


Progress Report Update

  • Blades
  • 19/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Sat, 22/02/2014 - 10:05

Thank you very much Gordon


Progress Report Update

  • Lostinspace
  • 13/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Tue, 25/02/2014 - 13:45

...and so say all of us!