Some thoughts on the December 2010 figures + updated guestimate on returns + finalised Table 10

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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Posted: Mon, 24/01/2011 - 13:25

Hi All,

Cover Note to go with thoughts on Dec 2010 figures + Table 10

Can I start by apologising for the lateness in posting my thoughts and table 10. I was trying to deal with something else when the Dec figures came out. Then did my thoughts on the Dec figures and started updating Table 10 when I had to go and deal with something even more important than this posting. It has taken me all week and I only started back yesterday to try and finalise everything before posting my thoughts. Unfortunately did not manage to finish my Table 10 update last night but posting all the data now – so really sorry.

  1. Have not increased liquidation costs in these figures or Table 10 update. Will wait and see if JLs increase their figure from £18m within their ‘6 monthly progress report’ update first. I had intended to add another £7m as you will see in my thoughts etc on Dec figures but may only add £5m now, but let’s see JLs thoughts first.

  2. Also wondering if the £14.9m ‘set off’ figure has been partly agreed between JLs and those people involved and JLS have taken the agreed amount from the £905m and the £887m net (£905 - £18m unresolved/unclaimed) as the 4th dividend per Dec figures update states total of £88.3m paid out in 4th dividend payments + ‘catch up’ payments. Whereas 10% of £887 is of course £88.7m without ‘catch up’ payments.

  3. Hope the ‘6 monthly report’ gives update on total costs spent on liquidation costs so far. I get £14.8m spent leaving £3.2m to last till the end of the liquidation – no chance, even allowing for the ongoing reduction in Bank staff and hopefully less litigation costs.

  4. Our dependence so far on ‘pulling in cash’ from later years to subsidise shortfalls as occurred in 2009 and 2010.

· In 2009 approx £23.6m was ‘pushed back’ from loans due into 2010 and a figure of approx £48m was brought in early from later years I.e. 2010/2016.This meant out of a total for these later years of £358m the JLs brought in £48m = £13.33%
· In 2010 we have ‘pushed back’ circa £22m into 2011. JLs did a fantastic job and brought £53.029m in early from later years I.e. 2011/2016. This meant out of a total for those years of £279.047 they brought in £53.029m or 19.003%.
· So for 2011 the picture regarding bringing in cash from later years looks like this – Cash due £89.304m at 13.33% = £11.904m or at 19.003% = £16.970m. Very much smaller totals, and I have said we could not depend on later years on an ongoing basis to help poorer returns in any one year as the cash was not there in those later years from now on. Hopefully as 2011 has a very high total on it’s own we will get between £75 - £100m in from 2011 without undue help from 2012/2016 (although that would be great also).

  1. Another factor for comparison in 2011 is -

· 2009 brought in (from loans due in 2009) £36.4m of £60m = 60.66%
· 2010 brought in (from loans due in 2010) £28.513m of £50.91m = 56.004%.
· 2011 If we bring in 75.21% (JLs lower estimate) of £135.062m that would be £101.580m – and that would be great, I think. But going by the 2 previous years the average per year is 58.33%, that would be £78.78m
o If they bring in the £101.580m (75.21%) that would mean a figure being pushed back totalling £33.482m or at a return of 58.33% it would mean a figure of £56.282m being ‘pushed back’.

Only showing these figures to give you an idea of what we have achieved so far and what we need to achieve.

  1. In respect of the 10 large loans we know the following;

· All due between 2011/2014
· Only 1 loan due in 2014 of £8.6m in value
· We received 1 loan back in full in Dec 2010 worth £14.402m from 2012 As it was above the value of the £8.6m due in 2014 it must be assumed to be 1 of the 10 large loans
· As said previously I tried to work out how many of these loans were due year by year using the loans value per year at the beginning of 2010. And from that deduced that 4 due in 2011, 4 due in 2012, 1 due in 2013 and 1 due in 2014, or 4, 3, 2 and 1. Based now on the end of Dec figures for 2010 I feel it might be 4,4,1 and 1. As said 1 loan from 2012 was repaid n full in Dec 2010, so it appears we have 9 outstanding; 4 in 2011, 3 in 2012, 1 in 2013 and 1 in 2014. The average of these loans excluding the £8.6m due in 2014 is nearly £21m each. This also assumes no early repayment of any part of the capital of these loans, as the JLs have said many moons ago most loans were interest only until the actual loan was due. But of course some capital may have been repaid and it would be good to see the JLs giving us some update on these loans, as they will play an important part on when we get dividends, the value we receive in each dividend and the eventual dividend total we receive.

  1. One more thing prior to the Dec figures being issued I did update my Table 10 based on what was available and came in around £6m short to pay the 10p paid out by the JLs in Dec15th 2010. Was not sure if they had received sufficient loans back by around the 10th to cover this £6m, or used some of the cash for ‘back payments’ and/or liquidation costs to meet the shortfall. After seeing the Dec figures and the cash received ex loans, to me, it appears obvious that that either the £14.402m received early from the loan due in 2012 either came in by around the 10th Dec or JLs were guaranteed it would be in sometime in Dec, thus allowing the 10p payment.

My thoughts on the Dec figures, and updates on estimates are all contained in the attachment with this cover note – again to try and retain the format. My final Table 10 is also attached and is now pretty long as I add data each month as we get the figures in order to attempt to keep the table as accurate as possible based on what the JLs release. So my apologies for this. When I update this Table into my draft Table 11 when we receive the January ‘6 monthly’ update and Jan figures themselves, I will think about cutting out some of the old data to help in future.

As always,

Take Care, and God Bless,

Gordon 45

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December Payout

  • chipmunk
  • 13/10/08 31/05/09
  • unspecified
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  • Thu, 23/06/2011 - 16:38

Im rather simplistic and have little faith in IOM doing what is right now we know we will (should) get over 96% back but over oh so many years....Gordon 45 ( and a few others ) has been rather important to me over the last few years and only occationally do I look at the site nowdays and only then to read 'payment updates'and so to the point....

Are we still looking at about 7% payout in December.

Thanks for any info


Hi chipmunk

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Thu, 23/06/2011 - 22:14

Hi There Chipmunk,

Re December 2011 payout. I still think even allowing for a very poor return in May that a dividend of between 5-8p/£ is achievable by December.

I said recently that I think there is a net 3.225p/£ available after the May 2011 figures. I have allowed for a furhther 5p/£ back from E&Y (KSFUK) to our JLs later in the year and that would mean £12.305m. I also said that meant we required under £4m net from the KSFIOM loan book between June - Nov on top of the £12.305m to get at least 5p/£ back by December.

But if the JLs achieve their 84.95% back on the loan book this year, already have £93.159m and that % needs £114.735m so it would mean £21.576m over say June to Nov = £3.596m per month. If we achieve that plus the £12.305m ex E&Y we then hit around 7p/£.

So Still think that kind of return is feasible by Dec 2011.

Hope the above helps,

Gordon 45


THANKS AS ALWAYS

  • mikepapa
  • 10/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Wed, 26/01/2011 - 17:28

Dear Gordon,

Thanks as always for your continued hard work and effort in keeping us all up to date with your number crunching.......
I must say I rarely understand it all, but your analysis is always important reading and your bottom line continues to give me hope for a better outcome than I imagined a couple of years ago!

Kind regards,

Mike


No Apology Needed

  • Blades
  • 19/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Mon, 24/01/2011 - 17:00

Please don't apologize for the time it takes you to submit your thoughts. We're all very grateful indeed for your continued analysis. Many many thanks.


HERE HERE

  • chipmunk
  • 13/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Sat, 02/07/2011 - 06:36

HERE HERE