SoA.DCS Calculator

  • IceCrusher
  • 14/10/08 25/10/11
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Posted: Fri, 01/05/2009 - 20:05

ng: edit at author's request - see new version here

Please find attached SoA.DCS Calculator for use with accounts from £100K to £150K. Other versions for other amounts will follow. Please note all notes and disclaimers. Use MS Excel to view, Google documents will not run it properly.
Ice

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Multi-account SoA Calc - soon

  • IceCrusher
  • 14/10/08 25/10/11
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  • Mon, 04/05/2009 - 13:07

I am now finishing a revised SoA.DCS Calculator that can be used with accounts from £50K upwards to £million inclusive, at all three asset realisations (low, medium and high). I hope to have this on-site shortly to replace the previous version.


Revised SoA/DCS calculator

  • Anonymous
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  • Mon, 04/05/2009 - 15:14

What if this shows the SoA to be superior!
Do you think it will change the anti-SoA lobby vote?
Of course you cannot be expected to assess the risks associated with liquidation (in terms of DCS funded 50k compensation payments), which are real.


Problems with calculator

  • anrigaut
  • 19/10/08 30/10/09
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  • Sat, 02/05/2009 - 13:25

Ice: surely you have not joined IOMT's spin team?

Having looked more closely at your calculator, I see it is for the LOW ASSET REALISATION - ie an eventual 74% dividend - scenario only (maybe you just haven't yet got around to the others yet, but I fear not everyone may have realised this).

I believe the SoA would look less advantageous for higher realisations. So please can you also provide spread sheets for the medium and high realisation scenarios.

Maybe I too am getting confused, but I cannot understand how a depositor with 150,000 GBP can receive 43,500 at the first SoA distribution if liquidation returns 37,500 at that time (this is what the calculator gives). As I understand it, the SoA is a top-up payment with a maximum assured top-up to 35,000 at the first distribution. So in this example, why would someone getting a liquidation dividend of 37,500 (ie already over the SoA first assured payment) receive any more from SoA? Or am I missing something important here?


@anrigaut 'problems'

  • IceCrusher
  • 14/10/08 25/10/11
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  • Sat, 02/05/2009 - 15:23

This may be the worst insinuation I've had cast in my direction in the last~7months, and because I chose to use a Low Asset Realisation for my first Calc? It is titled LOW ASSET REALISATION for goodness sake!

I posted this advice yesterday on the Calculator thread because I didn't want to raise peoples hopes by posting the high realisation first. As it happens,the first percentage returns on the High Asset Realisations are identical at 29% - as you will have seen from the charts. Besides, if you read my 'Warning', you will note that the dates on which these distributions occur may not be coincident, which can throw a different perspective on things, hence the note.

The calculator just reflects the data given in the tables and charts, and given the relative complexity of interpreting another's calculations which has taken him six months to do, I am not immune to error either - and I have already asked for advice if such bugs are spotted - (but without the inuendo please). In this case the tables give 29% SoA and 25% DCS, I didn't concoct these numbers. I will go through it again as on reflection it does appear 'strange'. The charts show that the SoA plot line consistently appears to be above the DCS line - but how can we know when there is no time line on the x-axis? None of us know when the DCS will pay, so its almost impossible to compare these returns properly.
I have today produced the HNW above £150K Calc with all three asset realisation versions, this has been sent to Adrienne for review by her team and I shall be posting it on site later.


@IceCrusher - abject apologies!

  • anrigaut
  • 19/10/08 30/10/09
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  • Sat, 02/05/2009 - 16:41

Now I feel really bad. I didn't think you would take my 'inuendo' seriously - it was said tongue in cheek - and I guess I should have refrained. So please accept my humble apologies.

The only reason I said that was to stress that using the worst case scenario for asset returns will tend to exaggerate the initial advantages of the SoA over liquidation. Although I know it's titled that way above the table, I'm not so sure everyone will have noticed that or realised the implications. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think you said in your post that this was just one scenario and that the others would follow.

I was glad to see the warning note, though again am not sure how it will be interpreted. What you say above above - "The charts show that the SoA plot line consistently appears to be above the DCS line - but how can we know when there is no time line on the x-axis? None of us know when the DCS will pay, so its almost impossible to compare these returns properly." - is much more compelling. Maybe you could add something on similar lines on your spread sheet? I know many people have been asking for comparisons and I appreciate your efforts to provide one, but as you say yourself it's almost impossible with the information currently available (or not available!).

I think I can now see why some of the figures are "strange" - and indeed are not correct. Maybe it will be simpler if I email you on that so that we can try to sort it out.

Once again, bravo for launching into this calculator thing. I really and truly meant no offense.


SoA v DCS Calculator

  • Anonymous
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  • Sun, 03/05/2009 - 07:15

Hi
If the calculator shows the SoA to be better than the DCS, then that is that - why try to prove otherwise? Is there a hidden agenda or what?


Re Calculator

  • anrigaut
  • 19/10/08 30/10/09
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  • Sun, 03/05/2009 - 09:38

scottr : re "If the calculator shows the SoA to be better than the DCS, then that is that - why try to prove otherwise? "

I was not trying to prove otherwise. But before saying "that is that" it makes sense at least to be sure there are no bugs. This calculator came hot from the press and it does seem that there IS a bug - at least for sums over £120,000 - Ice is looking into this (see his comments below).

Secondly, while a Calculator (with a capital C!) may sound impressive, it is only ever as good (or as bad) as the data fed into it. And unfortunately we are pretty much in the dark as to some of the data and assumptions used by IoMT and their advisors (which is why they and not us should be providing this comparison). So we can only guess the figures used from their minimal output (graphs and tables) - and this is probably the cause of the error above.

More than that, the input data are, by their very nature at this stage, subject to considerable uncertainty - which is why several scenarios need to be addressed. I felt it was rather unfortunate that the calculator was first proposed using the worst case scenario for asset recoveries. I understand this was done in order not to raise people's hopes concerning final recovery, but the purpose of the calculator (perhaps better called a Comparator?) was to COMPARE two options (SoA v liquidation/DCS) - and it is clear that the early advantages of the SoA will be greater if asset realisation is low. Surely it would be better to start with the medium scenario, which presumably is nearer to a best estimate of outcome? Then if required to add the low and high cases.

"Is there a hidden agenda or what?"
Not on my side. But I do have growing suspicions about the agenda of IoMG. If they truly wish to give US, the depositors, an informed choice, then I think it was incumbent on them (not us) to produce clear comparisons. While they have no or little control over some of the uncertainties (eg asset recovery level), it seems to me they could have done a lot more to reduce the uncertainty over the timing and amounts of the DCS (eg by promising to loan money to the DCS scheme as they are doing for SoA) in order to provide a serious and interpretable comparison. Why have they not done this? The calculator/comparator (minus bugs) may give a fair comparison for the first year, but after that all is much less clear as the timing of future distributions is unknown and likely to differ, perhaps significantly, under the two schemes (see Ice's WARNING about non-equivalence of dates). For this reason the graphs in the official Explanatory Note may be very misleading. Deliberate or not?

I am not a naturally suspicious person. I have tried to believe in the good will of IoMG towards us. As a lower-end class 2 depositor who would stand to see a quicker return of a good proportion (about two-thirds) of my funds under SoA than in liquidation (but then what ...?), I have long agonised over how to vote. But the latest document from our legal team has convinced me that my probable short-term gain is not worth the risks involved in contracting to a scheme with so many potential loopholes and pitfalls. I fully understand that many smaller (mainly under 50k) depositors will feel the risk is worthwhile. But I believe that my best chance of optimising my return on the remaining 30% or so lies outside the SoA as currently proposed and have sent my proxy vote to DAG.

Sorry this was a bit long, but I wanted to put the record straight. I have no hidden agenda and wish for the best possible outcome for ALL depositors, including of course myself. To that end, I know who I prefer to trust. I still believe we can get back our 100% and will fight on for that.


@anrigaut - accepted !

  • IceCrusher
  • 14/10/08 25/10/11
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  • Sat, 02/05/2009 - 18:19

Well, you don't have to feel that bad! But broadcasting inuendo on the forum at this time could stir up the nest as it were. Apologies accepted! Anyway if you look at my post I do say other versions and amounts to follow. I'm sorry if I don't appear to spell everything out, but from my perspective I'm doing too much in too little time and its not so easy trying to do these complicated things with so much on one's mind!

It is a difficult concept not made easy by the lack of, or misleading, information but those tables and graphs would have most people flicking the pages I'm sure.

Thanks for the offer, which you are welcome to send, but I think I should have restricted this particular Calc to £120K and not £150K. The range has moved since Lovett's earlier examples. Will do so more and maybe post a replacement.
Ice


SoA/DCS calculator

  • Anonymous
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  • Sat, 02/05/2009 - 10:10

I am now totally confused!
According to the calculator, depositors (100k - 150k) are better off with the SoA compared to liquidation.
I thought only the <50k guys would be better off with the SoA.


re: SoA/DCS calculator

  • Ally
  • 13/10/08 31/05/09
  • unspecified
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  • Sat, 02/05/2009 - 10:29

Scottr

As the SoA now says it will pay £50k or 100% (whichever is the highest) within 12 months this means some people with over £50k will be better off. For example if a depositor had £100k and they will receive £50k within 12 months they will get a 50% return within a year. In a liquidation / DCS scenario we can estimate what the dividned will be in the first year, maybe somewhere in the region of 35% so a depositor with £100k would receive only £35k.

If the dividend under liquidation is 35% then the level at which the £50k in the first 12 months under the SoA would not have a benefit would be around £143k.


@anrigaut/ally Calc

  • IceCrusher
  • 14/10/08 25/10/11
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  • Sat, 02/05/2009 - 11:42

Thanks ally and anrigaut for your comments. Everyone should note that these are just EXAMPLES as given in the latest documentation on the SoA; these examples are not fixed for all time. The dividends paid will be dependent upon the realisation of assets as determined by the LP. Please read the notes and comments in the Calculator(s) - 'hover' your mouse pointer over the red triangles to read comments.

Be aware of the WARNING! Although the Calculator puts the returns on the same line (for simplicity) it does not mean that the DCS and SoA would pay dividends on the same date, they could be weeks or months apart (I cannot know). The final result in financial terms looks the same on the projections, but the time taken to realise those returns may be a long way apart (see comments by elgee and anrigaut on this subject).

The tool is provided to look at the possible financial aspects for people who are not able to determine this information from the charts and tables of fixed numbers provided in the SoA documents - it is not for determining the many other aspects of these schemes for which I highly recommend the latest DAG appraisal.
Ice


That, I think, depends on

  • anrigaut
  • 19/10/08 30/10/09
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  • Sat, 02/05/2009 - 10:27

That, I think, depends on what you mean by "better off". You MAY get your money (or at least 74% of it) back sooner with SoA IF the assumptions used in this calculator prove to be correct. But, given the apparent defects of the contract proposed, are you sure it will actually work out that way?

And will you be "better off" in terms of legal protection and your chance to get back more of the remaining 26%.

These are the qualitative issues that I believe you would do well consider carefully before casting your vote.


re: That, I think, depends on

  • Ally
  • 13/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Sat, 02/05/2009 - 10:37

Exaclty if the assumptions are right. And I would like someone to post exactly what will happen in a liquidation scenario. I don't think anyone has yet, as no one knows so everyone guesses a 35% dividned but it could be 25% it could be anything.


Ally

  • Tricky Dicky
  • 24/10/08 30/05/09
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  • Sat, 02/05/2009 - 10:44

Hi Ally,
It is not really up to depositors to be providing these comparison's.

Both Schemes have been created and are run by people in IOMT/IOMG, they have verbally promised to provide these comparisons (way back in Dec 2008) but to date have failed to a) produce them or b) formally declare that they are not going to produce them.


@tricky dicky: ally

  • IceCrusher
  • 14/10/08 25/10/11
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  • Sat, 02/05/2009 - 11:40

Ally was first advised by JS that the Alix Partners calculator was not going to make it to the website due to legal advice given to the contrary. I wrote to JS in a 6 page email questioning many aspects of their documentation expressing huge doubt in their authenticity in producing this data. I was then invited to a telephone conference with JS where he confirmed that their version of a calculator would not be posted because it could easily be 'hacked'. He told me that I could not have his permission to put his replies on this forum as 'he had fallen out with the DAG representatives' over some previous situation that had not been resolved. We do what we can with what we know, and when we know better we do better.
Ice


TD

  • Ally
  • 13/10/08 31/05/09
  • unspecified
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  • Sat, 02/05/2009 - 11:04

Tirkcy

I was not asking depositors to do a comparison, I was just making the point that no one knows what will happen under liquidation. So to think you will be better of under liquidation is just an assumption as no one, liquidator and IoMG included, knows what the payouts will be


SOA V DCS-Calculator

  • jamjar
  • 11/10/08 31/05/09
  • unspecified
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  • Sat, 02/05/2009 - 09:52

Ice,Thanks for producing the calculator,I for one, havent got MS-Software -Excel,to read it,would you be kind enough to tap out a simple time and payments schedule in words and numbers for the 150-200 range of deposits.many thanks in anticipation.


Open Office

  • Mekong
  • 14/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Sat, 02/05/2009 - 10:18

May I suggest you download open office from http://www.openoffice.org/


Thanks Ice

  • Julienne
  • 16/10/08 31/08/09
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  • Sat, 02/05/2009 - 07:49

Thanks Icecrusher for producing these spreadsheets...
Look forward to the one that applies to me -- Whilst I know they are not a guarantee of what will happen - they are a guide and certainly help put a semblence of a future in front of me...
My money "on ice" was my future. Thanks BIG thanks