New Table No. 9 from Gordon 45 based on latest figures from JLs

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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Posted: Mon, 23/08/2010 - 16:18

Hi folks,

Attaching my cover note for my Table No.9 and the actual Table itself.

Table now pretty lengthy as I sruggle to retain all previous data, add in new monthly data and keep table going up until Dec 2016.

Both attached separately in order to keep uniformity and format. Hope you can understand it if you go through it.

Again only my thoughts, and there will be errors, although I have tried my best to minimise any. Have kept at lower estimates on purpose rather than raise any hopes to too high a level.

And as always, many or all of you may disagree with what I have put forward, but it is only my view, please understand that.

Gordon 45

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Thanks to Gordon

  • keving
  • 13/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Fri, 10/09/2010 - 06:50

Just to add my name to the list to thank Gordon for his wonderful efforts in doing the “real calculations” and his kindness in being willing to share his information with others. It has been an emotional 2 years for many of us, especially for those who face losing substantial amounts of life savings of which I am one. Gordon expertise has provided a real light among the emotion, confusion and misinformation of the (understandable) website rantings and red herrings and for that I am eternally grateful. I hope he takes heart from knowing his kindness has brought much needed stability and peace to many of us.


TO keving

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Fri, 10/09/2010 - 11:33

Hi keving,

Thank you so much for your very kind words, they are most appreciated I can assure you.

Just about to post the answers to questions I raised with the JLs and will also do a posting soon on my thoughts on the August figures issued by Mike Simpson. Looks like a good return from 2010 loan book in August and that should boost the 2010 yearly average up from 75%.

Once again thanks,

Gordon 45


Gordon 45

  • chipmunk
  • 13/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Sun, 05/09/2010 - 09:55

Superb information.....if only I could grasp everything you say...but the predictions are a real help to me.

.....it is however very interesting that you still feel the Parental guarantee may give a result somewhere between 150 to 300 million.......something I gave up on more or less long ago..............should we get 150 kk plus back from this.....where would your guestimate then stand at the end of the day (End of my life I think !! ) and when might this be......any ideas ?

Thanks again...........you must spend your full time on this stuff........


HI chipmunk

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Sun, 05/09/2010 - 22:03

Hi There,

Firstly thank you for your nice comment, and my apologies re length of Table and depth of info, just trying to continue to show the full picture as it evolves including my estimates & guestimates.

Re your comment on 'parental guarantee'. I did this way back when it seemed very important to us all, can't find my data now, except what I copied in from my Table 8. But I did guess around £300m gradually going down to around £53.88m as money came in. I attempted to guess what the interest might come to when I worked out the £300m and allowed for interest over the time it might take for the return of our cash from Iceland, taking into account the lowering value of capital due as we received cash from the loan books etc. The outcome was my £53.88m + £90m in interest = £144.88m. But what you must remember also is there was also info going around that the return under the 'parental guarantee' was going to be a max of 25% and this was further lowered by info from somewhere of us getting only 20% of the 25% which equals 5%. Which would mean £144.88m x 25% = £36.22m x 20% = £7.244mwhich in reality means a return of only 0.798p/£ to us therefore less than 1p/£, not a lot.

If we now currently expect, lets say 90% return of our money, that would mean a loss of around £90.8m + interest, and lets just say interest at 5% compounding over 8 years I.e. from Oct 2008 to Oct 2016 as seemed the case 2 years ago we get £134.15m, based on a starting figure of £90.8m. So not that much different from the £144.88m that I guessed 18 months ago, so still only 0.739p/£.So although only another wild guess it is around the same figure, so unless the info on the returns changes signifcantly we could expect perhaps up to 1p/£ more than our current return estimates. In reality very little more. And it could take up to another 2/3 years at least even if they accept the claim by our JLs in December this year.

So sorry if I have misled you in any way, did not mean to, as I was only showing the reality as it might turn out - virtually nothing.

Again my apologies, but I do think we can get up to the 90% back from the liquidation. If and when I get my latest list of questions answered/part answered by the JLs (if they come back to me), we see what E&Y say in their next 6 monthly report due in October re the KSFUK situation, once we get confirmation from the JLs on the hoped for £250.2m base figure on which E&Y base our returns on for unsecured loans, once we get more info on the 10 large loans in the KSFIOM loan book ave £19m each and once we see the actual returns from Aug/Dec 2010 on our own loan book then we might be able to ascertain where we are re a 90% return on the liquidation.

My new draft Table 10 is now started and includes draft figures for Aug to Dec for our loan book returns, I just need the figures as they are issued to modify the data I have and then estimate the return from the JLs in Dec 2010/Jan 2011 and how things look over the next 2/3 years.

Hope the above helps,

Take care,

Gordon 45

.....


Good job, Gordon

  • uptight61
  • 14/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Sat, 04/09/2010 - 12:58

I write just to reinforce the positive comments made by everyone else on this site. Please keep up the great work, Gordon. You are a lamp (one of several, and arguably the brightest) in the darkness. Thank you.


Just Thanks

  • Julienne
  • 16/10/08 31/08/09
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  • Sat, 28/08/2010 - 18:33

Gordon - many thanks for all your efforts - I don't pretend to understand the BIG numbers but your schedule helps us figure out our bit from the big picture. Your estimates have not been miles away to date and am glad you are cautious the if we get a surprise from the JLs then it's cause for a small celebration.

Keep up your great work.


Thank You

  • peter and louise
  • 18/10/08 01/09/09
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  • Sat, 28/08/2010 - 08:18

Thank you Gordon for all your efforts. They are very much appreciated.


Much appreciated

  • Codpeace
  • 23/10/08 30/11/12
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  • Fri, 27/08/2010 - 18:59

Thanks for all your time and hard work. It would be good to come out at the higher range of the forecasts but we still have a long way to go... I still think you could have done a much better job than the JLs!!


Much appreciated

  • barrona
  • 17/11/08 31/05/09
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  • Sun, 05/09/2010 - 10:16

Gordon,
Your sterling efforts in trying to make sense of the 'clear as mud' details emanating from the JL's are a shining beacon in this wholly mess.
I echo the sentiments by Codpeace in that you would have done a far better job than the JLs.
Although it's a forlorn hope, the IoM govt could still do the decent thing and pay us all off straight away but then we all know, how morally corrupt and incompetent they are.


Thank You

  • cande
  • 15/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Thu, 26/08/2010 - 22:59

Thanks for sharing the results of your work. In the abscence of anything comprehensible from the JLs your comments/analyses are very informative and encouraging.

Best Regards