JLs Nov figures out - look great- especially if £16.4m from E&Y not included

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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Posted: Thu, 09/12/2010 - 11:21

Hi Everyone,

Nov figures out from JLs look good especially if E&Y £16.4m not included, and it shouldn't be as it did not arrive until 8.12.2010.

So lets hope for a good return this month from ther JLs. I will look at these figures and update my thoughts on the dividend asap.

Take care,

Gordon 45

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10pence on the 15th December

  • thesunnysouth
  • 10/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Fri, 10/12/2010 - 12:33

As pointed out by Caledonia in the shout box JLS have annouinced 10p on the 15th taking the total above the 60% mark. Let us hope that they can resolve the £45m difference with KSF London asap and we can get the benefit of the additional circa £24m that will bring as well as any residue from the £23m owing on 2010 balance. With large repayments due from the loan book in 2011 plus the other amounts mentioned above it should be a good year.
If this is not an incentive for the IoM to finally take on the loan book etc I cannot think what will be. Over 60% already paid back and good returns due over the next few years it would mean the whole matter could be resolved before Iceland even begin paying the UK the money it owes on the Icesave debacle.
John


To thesunnysouth

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Fri, 10/12/2010 - 19:47

Thanks John,

just in, been away all day, great news. I have written up my thoughts on Nov figures (not typed in yet) and did think we could get at least the 8.9p/9.3£ to make us up to the 60%+, but the JLs have done better than that at 10p/£.

I now get 88.60p/£ as a final lower estimate back to us and then based on certain recoveries (like the £250m base figure at E&Y) work up through the 90% barrier up towards a 'dream land' improbability of 101% returns - but you have got to hope and dream.

Agree entirely re IOMG taking on the loan book, but do they have the guts and resolve to grasp the 'nettle' and get above 'the parapet' and in doing so save some face.

I used an estimated return of (using an 8.9p/£ this month) giving us 60p/£, leading to 73p/£ back by Dec 2011 and 84.6p/£ by Dec 2012. And that excludes any back money from E&Y if the base figure goes up to £250.2m, I get a back payment figure of £23.85m which would be another 2.626p/£. This would push my lower final estimate from 88.60p/£ up to 91.226p/£. That would mean we are in business re a very good recovery at the end of the day.

But as always this data is tempered with retention of good loan book recoveries at KSFIOM & KSFUK. Especially with regard to our 10 large loans - because I think they will make or break what we get back. I have done a wee set of calcs on this and will include it in my thoughts on JLs Nov figures. I get around 85% recovery on the KSFIOM loan book taking them into account, and that appears fairly near to the JLs revised upper figure of £89.59% from the loan book (hope their right and I'm wrong). But again all guess work as JLs will not divulge any info to me on these 10 loans. But based on cash due back from loan book, per year, between 2011/2014 (as JLS informed me that was the period covering these loans) I guess that 4 are due back in 2011, 4 in 2012, 1 in 2013 and the last in 2014 (as only one loan due back in that year) or 4 in 2011, 3 in 2012, 2 in 2013 and 1 in 2014.

I hope to post my thoughts on the Nov figures to-morrow and will probably leave my guess at 8.9p/£ as I am around 0.67% short in cash terms (£6.064m) to reach the 10p/£ that we are getting. I had updated my draft Table 10 based on 8.9p/£ but will change that to the 10p/£ and hope the JLs answer 5 questions that I asked them to phone me about yesterday - but they may not come back. I do have a longer list of around 20 questions that are nearly finalised and if need be I will send them the 5 + 20 and ask for a response to me. That would hopefully allow me to more accurately update my draft Table 10 that I expect to issue once we get the Dec data through. In order that I can finalise the full year and move on into the 2011 year with a fresh start.

But you are so right, what an opportunity for the IOMG and others to save face at this stage in the Liquidation and end up being very slightly out of pocket (if at all). Our 4 reps on the COI plus those on the DST also have this great opportunity to achieve for all of us, rather than continuing to disapppoint (my personal view only).

As always take care,

Gordon 45


2012 brought forward

  • thesunnysouth
  • 10/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Fri, 10/12/2010 - 00:06

Gordon, I think its important to point out that the good news from November returns is mainly made up by two loans totalling £12m due in 2012 being paid back early. That means that about £6m came from 2010 and the rest made up of other loans being paid up or partially paid up. Perhaps the policy of asking people to pay back early is working but as pointed out and commented upon by you we still have £23m owing for this year which looks unlikely to be returned and therefore carried over. If the JLS can get early redemption then that will make up for some loans being paid back late.

Thanks for all your hard work and looking forward to a near double digit return soon (hopefully).
John


Delay dividend until January 2011?

  • ianw
  • 14/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Thu, 09/12/2010 - 20:30

From the loan maturity data at 30th November, £23.7 mio is due for repayment by 9 facilities by the end of this month, so wouldn't it be better to wait until early January to pay the dividend and then include this amount? £23.7 mio equates to an additional ca. 2.6p / £

Rebecca


To Rebecca (ianw)

  • Gordon 45
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  • Thu, 09/12/2010 - 22:43

Hi There,

Re your above post. Need to say that there is no chance of getting all that cash back by end of Dec. The JLs moved £23.6m back from 2009 into 2010 from Dec 2009. At Sept this year there was still £19m outstanding from that not paid. so you can expect a reasonable sum of that £19m to be moved into 2011. On top of that I think we will see around £5-7m of the cash officially due in 2010 being moved back to 2011 also. In my thoughts on the Nov returns - not yet finalised or posted we have currently brought back around 58% of loans due in 2010 back by end of Nov. Albeit our returns in 2010 from later years are now up at a similar figure to the 13.33% received early in 2009 from later years. That hides the lower figure so far returned in 2010.

So I do not think there would be any gain by holding back any 4th dividend from Dec 2010 to Jan 2011.

Although if E&Y do raise the base figure on which to return dividends to our JLs from £205m to £250m we will be due £23m back as a back payment. But our JLS have said they would not hold back for this as any cash returned as a back payment from E&Y would enable them to bring forward another dividend more quickly next year.

So if we were also to get cash back quickly from the balance due in Dec from the 2010 loan book it would help to bring forward our next dividend due in 2011.

But you could be right and only time will tell.

I hope to post my thoughts on the Nov Figures over the next day or two.

Take care,

Gordon 45


No point in delaying next dividend

  • D RAM
  • 13/10/08 01/08/14
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  • Fri, 10/12/2010 - 02:24

I doubt all of the remaining loan facilities due in 2010 are due on the last date of the month. Accordingly if any are repaid in December before the next dividend date then presumably the JLs would include them in the payment to creditors.

Keep up the good work Gordon, you are doing a great job to keep us all informed. I look forward to your next dividend prediction.


Thanks Ice for the good news in the shout box

  • fight theft
  • 10/10/08 28/05/13
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  • Thu, 09/12/2010 - 17:40

How did you find out this news? Good to receive your news amongst all the angst at Christmas time which we always seem to get at this time of year... facing our usual pre-Christmas flurry of activity and uncertainty undoing our Seasonal Peace and Joy for the 3rd time.
Merry Christmas Ice to you and yours and thanks again to all your help insight actions etc for another year. X FT


@fighttheft

  • IceCrusher
  • 14/10/08 25/10/11
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  • Thu, 09/12/2010 - 18:13

From the Kaupthing Singers website of course! http://www.kaupthingsingers.co.im/

Thanks for your good wishes and let's hope that we do get a good 'dividend' for Christmas. If PwC and E&Y were to stop pratting about with "finalising" their respective claims (two years done already) we could expect a whole bunch more of our own money coming back to us.

It is nothing less than scandalous that these two entities have prolonged this 'Mexican stand-off' for so long. There are just two ways we can get our money back - mortgagees paying back their loans, and KSFUK paying back their dues. At the moment (according to our illustrious JLs) KSFUK are still under-paying our 'dividend pot' by some £45,000,000 - that is such a lot of money. It makes more impact than anything else many times over. We need it in our pot sooner rather than later and its about time the JLs got it there.
Ice


Can we not put pressure on our JL

  • calpespain
  • 12/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Fri, 10/12/2010 - 06:22

I have to agree with ICE. Are we not, as a group, able to put some pressure on our JL to get this sorted out. Currently I'm losing 7% on deposits not being in my control. Where as I suspect our interest payments will only be at best 1% on those back payments. If its 5-7% then that's okay, we can all wait but, if as I say its only 1%, its time we had a lump of that cash and put it to work for us, not for them to rack their fees higher and higher over this. How can we achieve a result for us regarding this back payment of disputed amounts. Can we do anything at all?


And thanks from me too

  • tsunamivictim
  • 11/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Thu, 09/12/2010 - 14:07

Very grateful Gordon every time you post something that non accountants can understand. Without you we would be left in the dark much of the time. It means a lot to all of us that even though Christmas is near and there must be other calls on your time, you are still there working to help us.
If you ever get to Sri Lanka, the dogs and I would love to meet you and the champagne (or the nearest we can get) is definately on us.


Gordon

  • chipmunk
  • 13/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Thu, 09/12/2010 - 13:48

Im dreaming of a White Christmas.....and now we got it ......a nice little payout would just keep the wolves away.....for a little longer.....thanks for all your work Gordon....


go Gordon

  • sambururob
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  • Thu, 09/12/2010 - 13:16

We suspect you are about to cheer us up Gordon!!
Forget the day job......get onto the analysing of JL's figures (lol).
Needless to say we will be very grateful when you do find time and as always your analysis will be clearer and more meaningful than anything we get from the 'professionals' who are unable or unwilling to communicate.
Thank you for all your time and trouble. You, above all people, deserve a happy Christmas and a prosperous and trouble-free NewYear.
Best wishes,
Rob and Wendy