January Figures issued by JLs Today - 9.2.2011

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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Posted: Wed, 09/02/2011 - 20:20

Hi Folks,

I see the January data has been posted by the JLs today. No word yet of the '6 monthly report' although JLs did not say that it would be out by 31.1.2011, only that they expected the Report to be ready by the end of January.

Excellent net gain of £17.9m in Jan, giving a total of £43.389m in the cash book. Great start to the year. I'll do some work on the figures and issue my thoughts in a few days, unless the big report comes out before I finalise my thoughts.

Take care,

Gordon 45

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Thanks as ever for your

  • cande
  • 15/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Sat, 12/02/2011 - 09:23

Thanks as ever for your efforts. Your input is evidence of light at the end of a very long tunnel.


Gordon

  • Lostinspace
  • 13/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Sat, 12/02/2011 - 07:53

Hi Gordon,

Looking forward to your next report, and hoping of course for good news.


@lostinspace: the good news

  • IceCrusher
  • 14/10/08 25/10/11
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  • Sat, 12/02/2011 - 09:25

The good news is that E&Y and PwC have finally agreed the claim against KSFUK; it is £4.1m less than previously anticipated by the JLs, but on the bright side it is £41.1m more than we've been receiving UK dividends on to date. The JLs posit a back-payment of £21.8m and state in their report that it is expected 'shortly'. Elsewhere in the Creditors Report the JLs say that "...having distributed 61.1p/£ to creditors with a further divdend likely shortly...." They have already agreed with the CoI to issue dividends whenever deposits enable at least 5p/£ to be made, so it appears that we can look forward to a minimum of 5% return in the near future.

IceCrusher


Re the good news

  • anrigaut
  • 19/10/08 30/10/09
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  • Sat, 12/02/2011 - 09:41

Note that they (the JLs) also say (page6) that they hope to be able "to pay further interim dividends in the region of 18p to creditors in 2011".


Thanks very much again Gordon

  • sabi Star
  • 10/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Fri, 11/02/2011 - 10:19

Do we know when the next pay out will be and for how much?


Hi Sabi

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Sat, 12/02/2011 - 11:27

Hi There,

I think based on the '6 monthly' report, the JLs hoped for 18p/£ dividends in 2011, the fact we have £43m+ in cash and due shortly £21.783m in back cash from E&Y (KSFUK), that even allowing for the higher liquidation costs (that was always going to happen) and back payments for the unresolved/unclaimed that we might expect a 6p/£ return late Feb/March. Maybe a 2nd 6p/£ by July/Aug and a 3rd 6p/£ by Dec so lets hope.

Take care,

Gordon 45


Payments in 2011

  • D RAM
  • 13/10/08 01/08/14
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  • Sat, 12/02/2011 - 16:03

Sorry to disagree Gordon but the JL's report mentions two dividends likely in 2011. On this basis I guess the JL's reference to next payment "shortly" probably means mid-year and the second payment in December ( similar timing to 2010 ). Anyway the estimated 18% appears better than we previously expected.


Payments in 2011 and beyond...

  • IceCrusher
  • 14/10/08 25/10/11
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  • Sat, 12/02/2011 - 18:54

Here's a thought for you: The estimate of 18% is based on getting £135.062 repaid to the loan book and 10% of the claim against KSF UK repaid to KSFIoM by the end of 2011 ((135+25)/905). The only reason there is £135m to be repaid this year is because £22.43m sheduled for repayment last year went unpaid and was carried into 2011. This brought the total of the sums sheduled for the remaining years plus the repayments already made up to £416m. The JLs continue to predict 100% return. The underpayment wasn't missed because early repayments from future years more than made up for it. Unfortunately the same thing happened at the end of 2009 - almost the same amount of debt (£23.63m) was carried into 2010 and early repayments made by other borrowers masked that underpayment as well. The JLs are apparently carrying about £23m of debt from one year to the next (without explanation) and revelling in the high returns from early repayments of later years obscuring this underpayment. Maybe it WILL be paid off this year, or perhaps further early repayments will allow a fudge-over once again. One thing's for sure, one year there won't be any future repayments left to make up for this unpaid debt and then we'll have a very lean year(s) as the early repayments will have depleted remaining loans and outstanding debts will stand revealed.

Right now everything looks dandy, but over 55% of the loan book (£230.6m 31/1/11) is still owing; the majority of loans are being repaid at the moment, but these are interest-only balloon loans with the capital to be repaid at the end of term. That said, I believe we will get another dividend within a month or so simply because the JLs are obliged to make one when there is enough in the pot to provide 5p/£ - and if KSF UK trumps up the back-payments on the claim against them plus we get another decent return this month then there'll be more than enough. Just keep a weather-eye out for deferred debt creeping insidiously from one year into the next...

Ice


To D RAM

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Sat, 12/02/2011 - 18:14

Hi There,

I saw that statement to, but JLs have said they will pay out at 5p/£ when they reach that total, and they will by end of Feb/early March if the £21.783m back money from E&Y (KSFUK) comes through by then.

So that tells me they will go ahead and payout ASAP.

Also leaves the balance of hopefully 12p/£ to be given out by end of 2011. Therefore by deduction it would appear that a 2nd and 3rd dividends of around 6p/£ each would be given out over the year.

But who knows, we will find out as time goes by,

Gordon 45


Hi Gordon & Icecrusher / JLs' Performance

  • D RAM
  • 13/10/08 01/08/14
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  • Sun, 13/02/2011 - 02:02

Gordon:

Obviously I hope you're right but I remain doubtful that the JLs will make three payments this year, not least because their report also mentions that it is costly to process payments ( and hence must adversely affect overall payment to creditors ).

Icecrusher:

Whilst I acknowledge that it could be interpreted accordingly from the JLs' report I'm doubtful that the JLs are "obliged" to make a payment when available funds allow a payment of 5p. They haven't in the past and if I recall correctly the ' 5p rule' came about because the JLs previously advised that they would not make payments of less than 5p because it would not be economically viable to do so ( presumably until the very last payment due to us under the liquidation which will be whatever it is ).

JLs' Performance:

Whilst I'm far from a financial whiz kid I reckon that the JLs have produced a comprehensive and readable report ( much clearer for the layman than the equivalent reports produced for KSFUK by E&Y ). The JLs' report goes a long way in my book to improving confidence in their peformance after their problematic start, not least throwing away our costs related to the discredited SOA ( to the best of my knowledge the JLs have never given us a proper explanation for their failure to seek costs ). However, looking towards the longer term, if payments do eventually reach 100% ( where there's life there's hope ! ) the JLs should not overlook repayment of uncapitalized interest in excess of 5% ( not included in the " amount admitted for dividend" ) and - the great leap of hope ! - interest on our funds until we actually received our money back.


We shall see; we have a CoI

  • IceCrusher
  • 14/10/08 25/10/11
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  • Sun, 13/02/2011 - 09:42

Refer to:

Committee of Inspection 29 June 2010

"Further money is anticipated from KSFUK and in respect of loans which are due for repayment or are expected to repay early. There is, therefore, a possibility of a fourth dividend before the end of 2010. KSFUK appear to be following a pattern of making two distributions per annum of not less than 5%. It was agreed that the Joint Liquidators should make further distributions when available funds reach 5%.

and

RESOLUTIONS

to confirm that the committee is content for the liquidators to pay future dividends of not less than 5% when those funds become available.

We shall see; we have a CoI whose role it is to set criteria for the JLs to try and oblige - I hope they do.


Great Dialogue

  • expatvictim
  • 10/10/08 01/11/10
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  • Sun, 13/02/2011 - 20:14

Excellent dialogue by all. I only wish I could be so constructive/ contribute as much. I tend to think that the key issues in terms of dividend timing and amount are described best by the statement 'when funds become available' and secondly the 'lumpy' nature of the loan book.

I expect end of February/ March is a long shot. I would guess that 'available funds ' does not neccesarily mean the same as cash position The liquidators will I expect, continue to hold back ~ 25M in the near term for that rainy day and to make sure they have enough to pay for themselves/legal fees. This is purely based on the end December report where that amount (~2.5% of what we are owed) remained after the dividend payment.

Even with the loan repayment in January and the KSFUK top up we are still ~1% shy of the 5% on the above basis. I dont recall seeing anything regarding when the KSFUK shortfall would be received but as we know liquidated banks tend to be slow to pay out. The so called lumpy nature of the loan book may mean that nothing more is available until nearer mid year.

I share IceCrushers concerns on the loan that are seemingly being continually moved forward. The JLs may well be hedging their bets on this one, but otherwise I expect they have a better handle on when loan repayments are likely to come in as well as hopefully some indication on dividends from KSFUK so I would expect the 2 dividends this year as they have indicated - and be pleasently surprised if there are three.


Much appreciated

  • Julienne
  • 16/10/08 31/08/09
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  • Fri, 11/02/2011 - 09:09

As ever Gordon your work is much appreciated. Thank you