Finalised thoughts on JLs Dec figures + estimates

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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Posted: Sun, 15/01/2012 - 20:49

Hi Folks,

Back eventually with my thoughts on the JLs Dec figures. Had some personal stuff to see to in Dec and early Jan, but now past that. Plus my estimate seemed high, but checked the data out twice- so hope I'm right.

Great year including October, followed by a poor November, then a brilliant December. So returns this year average of £13.782m per month – Excellent by any standards. All my data is based on GBP, my apologies to all my DAG Colleagues who invested in other currencies.

I’m now getting 98.60% as a lower estimate in returns by December 2014; based on 84.83% from our loan book and a 79% return on unsecured creditors loans from E&Y (KSFUK). The 98.6p/£ is up 2p/£ from November data. This is partly due to the 92.644% return on the KSF loan book in 2011, on a figure of £135.062m. So, way above the expected 84.83% allowed for. So it gives a boost of £10.655m or 1.2p/£. That raised the 96.6p/£ to 97.8p/£. Still left another 0.8p/£ to account for. When I checked out my November update to my spreadsheet against the December update, and after allowing for the balance still due from the loan book as at end of November and the £9.9m ‘push back’ from 2011 into 2012 I still get an increase of 2p/£. So although I am concerned at the gap between my figures and the JLs, it is what I am getting. You will see further down under point 2 that I think we could perhaps see the JLs raising their lower estimate from the loan book to a figure higher than 84.83%, and I give my reasons why in that paragraph.

Still waiting to hear, like the rest of you whether Elle McPherson does or does not appeal to the Supreme Court re her ‘set off’ situation (have an ongoing question in to the JLs on this). They hope to give some answers to my ongoing list of questions in the 9.1.2012 Progress Report – probably out early/mid February.

  1. Again re our dependence so far on ‘pulling in cash’ from later years to subsidise shortfalls as occurred in 2009 and 2010.

· In 2009 approx £48m was brought in early from later years I.e. 2010/2016, giving a return of £13.33%
· In 2010 approx £53.029m was brought in early from later years I.e. 2011/2016, giving a return of between 17.032% and 19.003%.
· So for 2011 the picture regarding bringing in cash from later years looks like this – the JLs have already brought back £40.260m (35.407%) by the end of this year, thus well surpassing the percentage of that achieved in 2009 and 2010.

· The JLs have brought back in overall £165.388m over 12 months Inc £40.260m from later years. Note, the £165.388m includes the cash in early from later years and all interest received in this year. So they have only failed to bring in £9.928m this year from the £135.062m due. So an excellent year in 2011 after a ‘push back’ of around £45m between 2009 & 2010. So we see a small figure of around £10m going back into 2012. And that is why we had such a good year in returns.

  1. In respect of the remaining 10 large loans I think we can see probably a figure of around £60m after the December intake (72.18%) of the remaining £83.124mm still due back from the loan book. Things changed drastically after the December figures. I think the £27.5m covered 5 loans all in the £5-10m range, leaving the big loan, plus 2 between £5-10m and 7 between £1-5m – my personal thoughts only.

And based on the total loans still due we might see the following –
2012= £56.580m = 74.87% of loans still due
2013 = £25.127m = 25.127%
2014 = £7.556m = 9.09%, but this is a large loan, as we already know.

So in % terms based on value that would suggest 7 of the 10 loans are due in 2012, 2 in 2013 and 1 in 2014. But whether the large loan is included in 2012, or 2013 is up for grabs. We need info from the JLs to help us here.

· The 10 large loans are still significant, especially if 7 are due in 2012, probably including the 1 very large loan left.

My thoughts on the December figures and updates on estimates are all contained in the attachment with this cover note – again to try and retain the format of the layout. My Table 11 (14th draft) has been updated to allow for December. I now get 98.60p/£ return overall. The figure still due for unresolved claims is now £12.2m (I think) at end of Dec and unclaimed still at £1.6m = £13.8m. Again await answers to questions to update unresolved/unclaimed further. I have revamped my Table 11 to take full account of all cash received so far up to 31.12.2011. I have revamped 2012 to 2014 to show the new total due back from loans. All interest due, based on July 2011 Progress Report was in by November. It means the interest brought back in, in December has not been counterbalanced by me taking off interest due from later years. But we now await the next Progress Report for 9.1.2012, as that is sure to show some form of estimated interest by the JLs over the new balance of the Liquidation. So come the January data from the JLs I would think I will once again be off setting interest gained in January 2012 by interest due from that point onwards until the end of the Liquidation – hope you can follow what I am trying to explain.

We have received 83.2% in returns now. I think we could get another 7p/£ by June, that would leave us slightly short of cash for 5p/£ in December 2012 and mean probably another 6.4p/£ by June 2013 then followed by a final dividend of around 2.0p/£ by December 2014. Unless we get increases in lower dividends expected from our JLs and E&Y (KSFYK) or cash back from Kaupthing hf or litigation. But the JLs may have sufficient to pay back 5p/£ by April/May 2012, and if that is the case we could get another 5p/£ by December 2012. That would mean a final dividend, still in December 2014 of around 5.4p/£. But the above is all based on the JLs & E&Y’s lower estimates of 84.83% and 79% being reached. Also depends on my data being accurate as it now currently shows a lower return of 98.60p/£ against the JLs 93.0%. So my thoughts still allow no gains from ‘Parental Guarantee’, no gains from E&Y’s claim against Kaupthing hf and nothing from litigation. Although we had the news re Kaupthing hf and the other Icelandic Banks re repayments to all depositors, no one is sure what it all means to us, so I see no point in including hoped for cash back at this point. Must also take note of the current Euro Zone and World situation, as it appears the UK is on its’ own against most of the other 26 Euro Zone Countries.

Having said that, my gut feeling is that we might just see some form of increase from the JLs on their lower estimate of 84.83% in their 9.1.2012 Progress Report, on returns due from the KSFIOM loan book. Because the current return on the loan book is £330.1m out of £416m, and that is equivalent of 79.35%. So a return of 84.83% on £416m means a total of £352.89m, or a difference of £22.79m out of the £83.124m still due (27.416% of £83.124m) So I feel a return of higher than 84.83% is quite likely. A return of 91.10% (the JLs current higher estimate on the loan book) would mean a total of £378.976m. This is equivalent of £48.876m more than the £330.1m already in and would equal 58.799% of the £83.124m still due. Make your own conclusions.

  1. As said I will ignore any return from ‘Parental Guarantee’ until JLs give definite figures on what to expect on any return from Iceland. If we get a definitive answer I will then update my Tables to include some form of return and timespan involved. Until then we should ignore it totally.

As said previously regarding the E&Y (KSFUK) claim although accepted, the Kaupthing hf ‘Winding up Committee’ have only agreed a claim of around £288m out of the £695m net claimed by E&Y. It is not a preferred claim, so it is an unsecured claim and therefore could be a return of only around 25%, and 25% of £288m = £72m. Taken in the context of unsecured creditors of KSFUK being in the region of £4.7bn would mean in the region of an additional 0.4p/£ to us.

And as said the ever-worsening situation in the financial world including the frightening Euro Zone situation including France could cause us further problems – we wait and hope.

One last point, I think worth mentioning is the split of loans by currency still due at this time. For the first time loans due back in GBP are less than those in USD and not a lot more than those due back in Euros. GBP £30.294m, USD in equiv GBP equal £39.699m and Euros in equiv GBP is £23.809m. Just a point to ponder. I did ask questions on this from last August onwards, perhaps some replies in 9.1.2012 Progress Report.

So, having said all of the above, we should be very buoyant after the December figures. We have to hope our JLs and E&Y can withstand the worsening European and World situations and still deliver on their 84.83% (or even higher if my ‘gut feeling’ is correct - hope to h--- it is) and 79% of E&Y lower estimations. Let’s see how things ‘pan out’ in the JLs progress Report and over 2012. As said above, could be on target to get 98.60p/£ back according to my calculations – but who knows.

As always,

Take Care, and God Bless,

Gordon 45

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FUTURE JOB

  • everhopeful
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  • Fri, 03/02/2012 - 06:27

Thanks again Gordon-really helpful but I can't help wondering what you are going to do with your time once this is all over?!!
James


Another sycophantic pos, Gordon,

  • follow_the_tao
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  • Sun, 05/02/2012 - 02:22

When are you going to explain to these guys that we were/are being ripped off?

They don't get it, Gordon! But you do , or do you?

Yes you inform as to the the probable outcome but without rancour. An apologist!!

Do you actually understand what happened, Gordon?


another apology needed ftt

  • sambururob
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  • Sun, 05/02/2012 - 12:05

Better Gordon's objectivity based on perceived facts than your rancour (which always comes across as alcohol fuelled) and bitterness.
Personal attacks seem to be your forte but none of them shed any light on the situation. Your last one on someone who works tirelessly to try and illuminate the situation for all of us particularly merits an immediate and full apology.
Approximately 120 banks a year fold in the U.S. every year - it is a fact of the capitalist system - try and come to terms with it. You just happened to have been involved in this one.


samburuob

  • Julienne
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  • Tue, 07/02/2012 - 10:35

WELL SAID !


To sambururob

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Sun, 05/02/2012 - 18:49

Hi There Folks,

Thank you for replying in my defence. I just ignore the guy, it's the best way. I actually laughed when I read FTT's comments a few moments ago. I do not tend to respond to him now - and occasionally when I might do so, his post is yanked off very quickly, so you lose the opportunity to respond.

If I was looking to use flattery to gain any favours off any of you, I can assure you that I would not be sticking my neck out giving the high estimated return figures that I do - as it could all fall flat and be most embarrassing, very quickly. But even more to the point, it would mean that I had let you all down by over estimating the situation - and I can assure you that is not my aim in life. I do what I do to help me try and plan ahead and thought way back that it might help others also. That is why I do it and hopefully I will not be to far out with estimates at the end of the day. My spreadsheet is now 118 pages long, so if I do that for flattery, with the time it takes to work it all out - then I must be a total fool.

But don't worry I have no intention of stopping now, even although returns will now be smaller and slower. We are all in this together to the end.

I just do not see the point in staying angry and warped, we were caught up in it and the only way, as you say, is to look forward and try and make the best of where we are and what we get back - and it is looking good, taking all things into account,

Thanks once again Rob & Wendy, most appreciated,

Gordon 45


Why stay angry?

  • follow_the_tao
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  • Mon, 06/02/2012 - 02:55

Yes it is isn't the best strategy.

But for all your work have you impacted on what would have happened anyway?

Yes, you are, have been a better source of information than the liquidators, solely because you are from our side. Ice was in fact more provocative and more useful.

But you are ameliorative.

So what does this comment cost me? Why make it? To fuel your laughter? No. You are a lot more comfortable than me. A righteous anger needs to be kept alive in these times. Otherwise the same thing is going to happen again.

And if you look at what is happeneing on the mainland how can you stay emotionless?

And it probably is going to happen again.

Ftt is hardly Ftt. The system screwed up, we screwed up, that's why, whilst your immense spreadsheet that in fact hasn't change things one iota has reassured us, Anrigauts approach is I00 times better.

Haven't you learnt anything Gordon?

Yes, your steady hand at the helm might have precluded some of the pre crisi stupidity, 'they got drunk' as Bush said. But you were still at the party! And you just didn't get it at all, apparently.

Anrigauts approach is 100 times better than yours. It might be seen as naieve to believe that you can fix the malfunctioning that is seemingly built into the system. But in fact you can change things sometimes given auspicious circumstances. I've done that, sometimes, and I'm exhausted.

Yes, the other way is to steer through The course you set failed you. You've just reset to the same course. And that is it.
But enjoy this comment, enjjoy your laugh, and enjoy your spreadsheet, as I did. But know that it didn't make one jot of difference to the result.

What do you think they are doing in Syria? And befor you say something glib, I'm still doing the same.

You might in your comfortable existence wonder what Syria has to do with anything. And it doesn't imediately have anything to do with you. And you may well ask what it has to do with me. Well the answer is simply just how we co-operate ot compete. I think you can see that. So reflect a little and I understand your excitement in respnse to Samburob but are you really in agrrement. Probably, yes. That is why you haven't made any difference.

And that is the point I was trying to make. What are you trying to do Gordon, and is it actually the best path?

Yes, I can see what everybody else is doing. But we have a window here.


"We screwed up"

  • glen07
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  • Mon, 06/02/2012 - 05:01

I don't think Gordon 45 deserves your comments. He never set himself up to change what has resulted from the liquidation of KSFIOM bank. We've all tried our bit in whatever means we could. Whether it is fruitless, well history will judge that but it won't be the first, nor the last, when liquidations happen and don't satisfy the creditors!! Gordon has spent endless hours on our behalf trying to judge our returns which has given some comfort to some depositors and he only deserves credit. I am sure he is as frustrated as us all about many decisions, strategies, excuses, outcomes from this whole debacle. It is his right to act as he thinks fit in whatever situation he finds himself in. You said it - ..."we screwed up".... so we have to take responsibility for handling what has happened and by what means. No one of us is responsible for the impact and its outcome for the rest of the depositors. If you have a better idea on what path we should follow, then please share it on this site. This site has always been used as a means of communication for us all, to learn, share and exchange information.


FTT

  • Brabander
  • 15/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Mon, 06/02/2012 - 21:24

I know you are probably just frustrated and letting off steam.
However it is unfair to attack a person who is doing his best to help us depositors understand the various announcements made by the liquidators.
I do not believe Gordon ever claimed that his posts actually provided a better return to depositors but they do give depositors some degree of confidence in the future.

Your posts however are negative and divisive. If you do feel the need to post a comment in the future try to give positive proposals or suggestions.


Many thanks Gordan

  • thaichris
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  • Thu, 02/02/2012 - 01:56

Many thanks Gordan


Gordon many thanks as I echo

  • TykeinSingapore
  • 12/10/08 22/06/09
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  • Sat, 21/01/2012 - 03:30

Gordon many thanks as I echo the comments of many others.


Many thanks, once again

  • Valentine
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  • Wed, 18/01/2012 - 02:52

Once again, Gordon, thank you so much for keeping us in the picture.
Your monthly reports are now vital to us because they not only enable us to make sense of the JL's figures, but, just as important, I think, at this very quiet time they are keeping this site alive and ensuring that we are not all going to fade away.
We should also thank cottesmore and the other jokers for their invaluable contributions during these quiet times.
Happy New Year to all


THANK YOU!!

  • everhopeful
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  • Wed, 18/01/2012 - 02:22

Many thanks again Gordon for your invaluably analysis and support as it really does help us all. Hopefully we can all buy you a drink or three when this is all over and if we get the chance to meet up.

James


Many thanks to Gordon and

  • Jo
  • 13/10/08 31/08/09
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  • Tue, 17/01/2012 - 20:07

Many thanks to Gordon and everyone who has been working on our behalf for so long. Your efforts are much appreciated.


Thank you

  • sunny1
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  • Tue, 17/01/2012 - 08:58

Thanks Gordon, yet again. I've just picked up on the website after a few weeks of too much to do. It's good to see your figures, and to hope for such a return. Although December 2014 does seem quite a long way away at the moment, it will come in due course.
For the moment, happy 2012 to all.
Sunny1


Thank you

  • Dick James
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  • Mon, 16/01/2012 - 19:04

Gordon,

Thank you for all your good work over the years with the figures and explaining what they mean.

Your work has give me hope and helped me make sense of the situation.

Regards and if it is not too late "Happy New Year!"

Richard.


Thank you again Gordon for

  • peter and louise
  • 18/10/08 01/09/09
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  • Mon, 16/01/2012 - 15:42

Thank you again Gordon for all you are doing for us all. Your hard work is so much appreciated. I wonder if we will be given some sort of estimate as to how much is expected to be clawed back this year when the JL´s give us their progress report due out in February? Best Wishes to you for the New Year. Peter and Louise


thank you for detailed analysis

  • sambururob
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  • Mon, 16/01/2012 - 04:11

Thank you for the time and effort put into such detailed analysis Gordon. As ever, we are always left with the feeling that the JLs should be doing this as they are paid....but we assume they dont like to speculate....just accumulate!
Have a good day
Rob and Wendy


thank you Gordon - its good

  • worried jules
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  • Mon, 30/01/2012 - 09:40

thank you Gordon - its good to know that this website is still going strong and will hopefully remain so until we all get our money back...its as vital now as it was in those dark days of 2008 - my goodness...nearly 4 years...