COI minutes/questions to JLs + other thoughts

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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Posted: Tue, 11/01/2011 - 22:01

Hi folks,

Attaching my thoughts on the above, along with some answers to questions I raised based on the COI abbreviated minutes. I also hope to see some more answers for all of us within the '6 monthly' update as alluded to by the Jls to myself in their reply to my COI questions.

My main thoughts are again posted as an attachment in order to hopefully keep the format and make it easier to read.

As always only my thoughts, could be way off beam, hope not, and will as I have said give my thoughts on the Dec figures, the '6 monthly' update and update my current Table No.11 based on these two reports and then the January figures once they are produced.

Let's stay positive, we have passed the half way mark and heading down the hill - only 38.9% to go.

As always,

Take care and god bless,

Gordon 45


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JL's Update as at end December 2010

  • D RAM
  • 13/10/08 01/08/14
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  • Thu, 13/01/2011 - 14:57

Thanks for the insight.

I note that today the JLs have issued their update with the Cash Book and Loan book positions as at end December 2010 and await your views thereon with interest.

I'm far from a financial expert but it appears disappointing that only two of the remaining nine loan facilities due 2010 were repaid in December. Given that seven of these facilities ( about GBP 22 million ) were still outstanding at end December I'm puzzled why this is not shown accordingly in the 'Maturity Ladder of the Loan Book' which instead shows no loan facilities outstanding at the end December and the facilities apparently transferred into 2011. Is this because the JLs have adjusted the maturity dates ? And, if so, is it because the JLs consider there is a reasonable chance that the lenders will repay these facilities albeit they may temporarily be unable to do so ? Any views or should this issue be raised by the CoI with the JLs?


Hi D RAM

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Thu, 13/01/2011 - 20:26

Hi There,

Did see the figures for Dec had appeared, but I have other things to finish off before I get to look at them in detail - but I will do so very shortly.

Approx £23.6m was 'pushed back' last year from 2009 into 2010. And I was informed when I asked about them that they had been given under a year to repay the outstanding loans. Recently it appeared to me that there might still be around £7m originally from 2009 being 'pushed back' into 2011 and I thought around £21m from 2010 into 2011. But another excellent loan book return figure in Dec, following on from an excellent return in Nov has obviously lowered my approx £27/28m, down to around what you say. So it appears that returns from 2010 have been better than 2009 and that's good.

You are always going to have defaults year on year and I have said on a number of occasions now that's fine as long as you have large loan book figures for later years from which to bring in cash early. Unfortunately when we get past 2012 there are no more large amounts due in 2013 onwards to draw forwards, so the JLs have to 'catch up' at some point, extend the time to get cash back or 'write off' loans.

So what has taken place in Dec figures is exactly the same as in Dec last year. you have to work out the figure 'pushed back' from the figures given.

To be fair we have had another good year in dividends without the 'back money' from E&Y (KSFUK) and hopefully that is still to come. The JLs brought back around 13.33% early from later years in 2009 and around the same in 2010 from later years as at Nov figures. May be higher now when I put in the Dec figures.

What we need this year is another year of excellent returns from that due in 2011 and hopefully a continuing early return from 2012/2014. And that coupled to the hopefully ongoing returns from E&Y plus some 'back money' when and if the £250m base figure is agreed should lead to another good year in dividends. My main worry now surrounds the 10 large loans, I think probably 4 due this year and 3 or 4 due next year all around £20m each on average. They will make or break the next two years, but hopefully most of it will come in.

The last point worth mentioning at this point is the stance taken by the JLs in contrast (Ithink) to their compatriots in E&Y (KSFUK). Our JLs appear to hold the view that they should try and allow leaway in an attempt to get all loan cash due back, although they have taken action and repossessed buildings and an aircraft when they obviously felt they had reached a point of no return. E&Y on the other hand when you read their '6 monthly' updates appear to have taken a harder hand with defaulties. If my guesses are correct who is to say whether PWC or E&Y have and are taking the right course of action as dividend returns to the JLs from E&Y and dividends from the JLs to us are nearly on par. In fact returns to us from the JLs are slightly ahead in % terms.

So it is just the JLs way of hiding the exact amount 'pushed back' year on year rather than giving an upfront figure. From my viewpoint I do not mind which avenue they choose as long as we get the best return possible and so far I think they are doing reasonably well. But you and others may hold a different view.

I'll have a better idea when I work out the figures for Dec. But at 1st glance having given out 10/£ in the 4th dividend and at the end of Dec still hold £25.5m in cash when around £14.2m (my figures) was held back prior to the 4th Dividend payment in Dec suggests around £11.3m lying already towards our next dividend, hopefully in June/July this year. Remember £45m clear is our 5p/£, so another £34m from KSFIOM loan book returns between Jan/June, plus hopefully another dividend from E&Y (KSFUK) by june of at least £16.4m, plus back money of £23m+ if and when our JLs and E&Y agree the £250m base level on which returns are given back to us is a great start. Remember this year is and always was the biggest year for loans due back to the JLs. Figure as you know quoted in Dec figures is £135.0m and at 75.21% return this year (JLs lower estimate for return overall from the loan book) that would mean £101.5m + any cash brought in early from 2012/2013. And that would mean on it's own around 11.2p/£ and I reckon we will get around 14p/£ over the year.

That's my thoughts anyway at this juncture,

Take care,

Gordon 45


A huge thank you

  • shellshocked
  • 23/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Tue, 18/01/2011 - 12:58

Thank you for all your tremendous hard work. Your grasp of the numbers, which is what matters most to us, is a blessing to the likes of myself who are somewhat challenged in that department.
Thank you so much.


Thanks, Gordon

  • Codpeace
  • 23/10/08 30/11/12
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  • Mon, 17/01/2011 - 19:35

Very much appreciate all your hard work. With 75% possible this year what an outstanding publicity opportunity for the IOM to get the IOM /UK loan trust proposal put in place now and bring it to 100%!!


Non runner

  • bellyup
  • 10/10/08 09/01/10
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  • Fri, 21/01/2011 - 10:48

Much as i would wish it to be so I cant help but feel that the Loan Trust from the IOM is a non runner.

It gains the IOM nothing .

How much has KSF going down really hurt them?


You're a star

  • calpespain
  • 12/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Sun, 16/01/2011 - 10:53

What a star you are, ever time you post, I read your words with joy as it seems that more money is forthcoming. I know its our money but I thought for a while it would be less, now I'm thinking it could almost be all of it. Keep up your posts to us as you seem to be ale to make sense of all of this. Thank you once again Gordon 45.


I agree, a star indeed!

  • jenren
  • 10/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Mon, 17/01/2011 - 13:28

Many thanks for your efforts Gordon


Thanks Gordon

  • D RAM
  • 13/10/08 01/08/14
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  • Fri, 14/01/2011 - 07:29

Thanks for your enlightening response.

Let's hope you're right and we do get 14p ( or even more ) this year.