Calculations based on poll results so far

  • Anonymous
  • unspecified
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Posted: Fri, 17/10/2008 - 10:45

I have calculated the following percentage paybacks in the case of the bank being liquidated and the compensation scheme being activated. Based on the current poll and total deposit estimate of GBP840m, the number of depositors is estimated at about 4500 (Companies, trusts, etc. not included). The results may not be very accurate due to a skewed poll, but may be useful as a rough guide to those depositors who are really in the dark!

Liquidated assets for distribution to depositors: 200m
Scheme payback period: 5 years 4 months
Deposit <30k: 100%.
75k: 67%.
175k: 29%
>375k: 23%

Liquidated assets: 300m
Payback period: 3 years 7 months
Deposit <30k: 100%
75k: 67%.
>175k: 35%

Liquidated assets: 400m
Payback period: 2 years 7 months
Deposit <30k: 100%.
75k: 67%
>175k: 47%

Liquidated assets: 500m
Payback period: 1 year 8 months
Deposit <30k: 100%
75k: 67%.
>175k: 58%

Liquidated assets: 600m
Payback period: 11 months
Deposit <30k: 100%.
>75k: 70%

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More exact numbers?

  • ng
  • 11/10/08 31/12/20
  • a depositor
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  • Sat, 18/10/2008 - 03:26

The poll gives a great overview, but we could simply ask people how much, the exact number. The downside is the personal privacy issue, the upside is exact information (assuming people answer truthfully). We wouldn't publish figures per member (although to some extent that's already available in Your Stories and Sums involved), just a total.


Calculations based on poll - plse read this version

  • Anonymous
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  • Fri, 17/10/2008 - 10:56

In my posting above the use of ">" caused line-skipping. Plse read the version below instead

I have calculated the following percentage paybacks in the case of the bank being liquidated and the compensation scheme being activated. Based on the current poll and total deposit estimate of GBP840m, the number of depositors is estimated at about 4500 (Companies, trusts, etc. not included). The results may not be very accurate due to a skewed poll, but may be useful as a rough guide to those depositors who are really in the dark!

Liquidated assets for distribution to depositors: 200m
Scheme payback period: 5 years 4 months
Deposit 30k or less: 100%
75k: 67%
175k: 29%
375k or more: 23%

Liquidated assets: 300m
Payback period: 3 years 7 months
Deposit 30k or less: 100%
75k: 67%
175k or more: 35%

Liquidated assets: 400m
Payback period: 2 years 7 months
Deposit 30k or less: 100%
75k: 67%
175k or more: 47%

Liquidated assets: 500m
Payback period: 1 year 8 months
Deposit <30k: 100%
75k: 67%
175k or more: 58%

Liquidated assets: 600m
Payback period: 11 months
Deposit 30k or less: 100%
75k or more: 70%


What are we owed (not lost) - few simplified facts

  • Elpasout
  • 10/10/08 31/08/09
  • a depositor
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  • Fri, 17/10/2008 - 22:38

(cross posted to Media section)

I think its important that we work to change any misconceptions in the media that we are a bunch of "millionaires", rich "investors", etc.

To this end, I have paraphrased the statistics from the What Are We Owed poll which users have answered.

Fact 1 - "Only 1/3 (or 1 in 3) depositors will be covered by the new Isle of Man £50k guarantee scheme". Looked at the other way 2/3 of the banks "customers" ("savers" may be a better word?) will lose money.

BUT - at the same time -

Fact 2 - Over 3/4 of customers have less than £250k "in savings" with the bank. (not exactly millionnaires)

AND

Fact 3 - Only 3% (3 out of 100 - sorry to dumb it down) have over £1m saved.

Can we use these figures to change perceptions about us? I sincereley believe we can.

PS. Excellent work with the poll and the stats - big thanks!


Payback period

  • cold-dose
  • 11/10/08 31/05/09
  • unspecified
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  • Fri, 17/10/2008 - 11:43

Is this based on an assumption that every bank will pay in £500,000 a year? Because they won't - that's the maximum they can be assessed for. Many will be paying less into the compensation scheme.


COLD-DOSE

  • sleeplessnight
  • 10/10/08 30/06/09
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  • Fri, 17/10/2008 - 22:20

do me a favor? please send me a fact sheet to refer to re numbers etc. i am facts and figures girl so can you please send in bullet points. Getting calls need answers. Main question is number of deposits and how the hell Iom will support Compensation Scheme


Don't have those facts, sorry

  • cold-dose
  • 11/10/08 31/05/09
  • unspecified
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  • Sat, 18/10/2008 - 01:30

I'm afraid that those figures aren't available at the moment - we can only make estimates to the number of deposits, how many are covered by the scheme, and how big they are.

However, the relevant questions are due to be asked in the Manx parliament next Tuesday, which should help give us lots more information.

Compensation scheme is funded by a 0.125% levy on the total deposits held by a licensed deposit taking bank, subject to a £500k maximum. It is levied in April each year.

Just as an aside, I've been checking up on the last bank failure - BCCI.

  • Liquidator appointed 10 March 1993
  • Liquidation completed 7 August 2008
  • Compensation fund appears to still exist today (see below)

(PO Box list of Isle of Man Post Office shows "BCCI Claims Depositors Company, PO Box 36, Douglas IM99 1BR")

(Mention in recent legislation: "The 1991 Regulations shall continue to apply for the purposes of the fund established following the default of the Bank of Credit and Commerce International S.A. in respect of which the Scheme Manager made a determination on 16th January 1992" - Compensation of Depositors Regulations 2008, passed 9th October)

BCCI was fifteen and a half years ago, and I doubt there were anything like as many people affected, and of course the limit was much lower - in fact, the total affected was only £23m.

Also, if you are owed more than £50,000 and you take the compensation then any money the liquidator recovers for you has to first go to repay the compensation. Only when it has been repaid WITH INTEREST and administration charges do you get to receive any over.


Further calculation

  • cold-dose
  • 11/10/08 31/05/09
  • unspecified
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  • Fri, 17/10/2008 - 11:52

In order to be paying the maximum assessment of £500,000 a bank would have to have deposits in excess of £4bn.

If KSF IoM had had to contribute to a failure of another bank, it would have been paying only £100,000 a year.

No wonder they still have the BCCI IoM compensation fund open!


Ah... whoops

  • cold-dose
  • 11/10/08 31/05/09
  • unspecified
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  • Sat, 18/10/2008 - 01:56

I think I might have got my figures out. If it's 0.125%, then that's actually £400m that the bank would have to have to pay the maximum. KSF IoM therefore would have paid the maximum.

Still, not every bank in the Isle of Man has half a billion in deposits.


perspective, sadly

  • occams razor
  • 10/10/08 31/05/09
  • a depositor
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  • Fri, 17/10/2008 - 16:50

That puts it all into a lot of perspective, sadly.


Compensate this!!!!!

  • Monkeyface3604
  • 10/10/08 31/05/09
  • unspecified
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  • Fri, 17/10/2008 - 16:54

It would be good if we could work out the repayment length of time. This is something that needs to be pointed out to press, the sceme is useless, may as well say here is a bag of crisps and a mars bar....bad luck!!!


Confused

  • Anonymous
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  • Fri, 17/10/2008 - 11:04

Thanks for this but am confused. Why have you taken figure 30K or less ? I thought that the compensation was £50K. I am probably being dense!


Compensation

  • Anonymous
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  • Fri, 17/10/2008 - 11:22

Right. Compensation is 100% up to a 50k deposit. The results are based on the poll distribution and 30k happens to be the average of the deposit band 10000 - 49999.


Thank you-scottr

  • Anonymous
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  • Fri, 17/10/2008 - 11:47

Thanks for clarifying.