Belated thoughts on JLs August Figures + estimated returns

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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Posted: Thu, 22/09/2011 - 16:25

Hi Folks,

Sorry for being later than normal posting my thoughts re monthly figures.

We were back to reality in May, bit better in June thanks to the FX gains, a great deal better in July even allowing for the FX losses and a further good August. So we still have great returns this year gaining an average of £14.782 per month – good by any standards.

So although returns are not continuing at the very high levels from earlier in the year I still think we will get a dividend later in the year of between 6-8p/£. We could get 5.93p/£ right now, 6.4p/£ if we get another £4.5m/£5.0m in Sept (thus reaching the magical 80% so far), or perhaps we could get 7.32p/£ after the JLs received the (at least) £12.305m from E&Y (KSFUK) w/c 3.10.2011 or up to 8.0p/£+ by later in the year if the JLs decide to wait until then.

  1. Again re our dependence so far on ‘pulling in cash’ from later years to subsidise shortfalls as occurred in 2009 and 2010.

· In 2009 approx £48m was brought in early from later years I.e. 2010/2016, giving a return of £13.33%
· In 2010 approx £53.029m was brought in early from later years I.e. 2011/2016, giving a return of between 17.032% and 19.003%.
· So for 2011 the picture regarding bringing in cash from later years looks like this – Cash due back 2012/2016 is £113.704m and at 13.33% = £15.157m, the JLs have already brought back £36.127m (31.77%) by August, thus well surpassing the percentage of that achieved in 2009 and 2010. The JLs have brought back in overall £118.260m in 8 months Inc £36.127m from later years. Note, the £118.260m includes the cash in early from later years and all interest received in this year. I still think it unlikely we will get £114.573m back from the £135.062m due back from loans in 2011 alone, unless large loans come in.

  1. In respect of the 10 large original loans and the latest set of large loans we can see the following, based on the JLs info in the July Figures & July Progress Report;

· We now know the 2nd set of 10 large loans were split; 3(2011), 4 (2012), 2 (2013) and 1 (2014). I think the latest set is split either 2(2011), 4 (2012), 3 (2013) and 1 (2014) or 3(2011), 4 (2012), 2 (2013) and 1 (2014). Have sent questions off to the JLs requesting an update on the split by year.

· The July Progress Report updated by the July figures showed the following: 1 loan >£10m, 7 loans between £5-£10m, 28 loans between £1-5m and 26 <£1m = 62 loans worth £140.843m. I think the 2 loans repaid in August both fall into the £1-5m category. Some discussion on the DAG over the value of the 1 remaining loan at >£10m. Again question asked of the JLs in relation to this loan, hope for an answer of some sort. The value of the 10 large loans still appears to be in the region of £96m (approx 73.5%) – again a question has been asked in relation to this.

My thoughts on the August figures and updates on estimates are all contained in the attachment with this cover note – again to try and retain the format of the layout. My Table 11 has been updated to allow for the August figures. I now get 96.300p/£ return overall.

The figure still due for unresolved had dropped to £12.8m as at 7th July, less £0.1m 31.7.201 and now less £0.2m paid out in Aug = £12.5m plus unclaimed at £1.6m = £14.1m. I have also revamped my Table 11 to take full account of all cash received so far up to 31.8.2011 and down dated what is still due in 2011 (based on 84.83%) on receipts so far. Also revamped down what is still due in value from following years based on excellent early recoveries so far this year. Also revamped interest downward that is still due in 2011 based on July Progress Report. And have also increased recoveries from E&Y (KSFUK) to their new increased estimated lower 78%. (Increase of £7.383m to us).

We will get two returns this year, already had one of 12.5p (8.4.2011) giving an overall total of 73.60% and can now expect another of between 6-8p/£ that will give us, I think, at least 80% by Dec 2011. I think the JLs will have various options between now and December 2011 to pay us out either 5.93p/£ now, or perhaps 6.4p/£ late Sept, or £7.32p/£ once they receive the (at least £12.305m from E&Y (KSFUK) w/c 3.10.2011, or up to 8.0p/£ by December – it all depends when JLs decide to pay this next dividend. This plus the possibility of another 5p/£ in June 2012 and 5p/£ in Dec 2012 = 10p/£ giving a grand total by Dec 2012 of at least 90%.

I’m currently staying with the 84.83% all the way through and also the 78% (from E&Y - KSFUK) all the way through until any changes are notified by the JLs or E&Y.

  1. Also said previously I will still ignore any return from ‘Parental Guarantee’ until JLs give definite figures on what to expect on any return from Iceland or give a definitive value on agreed claim plus data on the value of interest due. I might then update my Tables to include some form of return and timespan involved. Until then we should ignore it totally. I do think we have a better chance of a return, at present, through E&Y (KSFUK) claim against Kaupthing hf. Their claim has been accepted although the value has still to be agreed. But it could see returns for their unsecured creditors (includes us) move up nearer what our JLs hope to recover from the KSFIOM loan book. Perhaps their ‘6 monthly report’ due out in October will give more info on this.

It would therefore appear to leave any other litigation as the outstanding way of getting cash back. We did not get much from the JLs 9.7.2011 Progress Report, so we will have to keep waiting for any movement in that area.

So, we should continue to feel buoyant after the August figures. Lets see how things continue between Sept & November this year. We are on target for a good year partially thanks to the repayments of some of the larger loans from 2011 & later years, our JLs have met their lower 84.83% estimate for this year (inc interest & cash returned early from later years), and hopefully E&Y (KSFUK) meet their lower estimated returns at least. – but who knows.

As always,

Take Care, and God Bless,

Gordon 45

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Good work!

  • StuPot
  • 21/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Tue, 18/10/2011 - 09:00

Dear Gordon,
I've read your words of wisdom over the 3 years of this fiasco, but I haven't said THANKS.
THANKS for doing it in the first place and THANKS for staying with it.

Kind regards
Stuart


Thank you

  • peter and louise
  • 18/10/08 01/09/09
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  • Sat, 24/09/2011 - 14:27

As always Gordon, we want to thank you for all the time and effort you put in. Your (and others') continuing analyses of the facts and figures as they come in, and your bottom line extrapolations on what it all means is both valued and gratefully appreciated.


Thank you Gordon

  • sambururob
  • 10/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Sun, 25/09/2011 - 13:59

Echoing Peter and Louise,
Your posts may be belated by your standards Gordon but we dont mind because they are amongst the few meaningful and understandable communications we ever get. You take as long as you need cos they are always worth the wait!!
Thank you again...and again....and again
Rob and Wendy


Thank you Gordon

  • sambururob
  • 10/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Sun, 25/09/2011 - 13:59

Echoing Peter and Louise,
Your posts may be belated by your standards Gordon but we dont mind because they are amongst the few meaningful and understandable communications we ever get. You take as long as you need cos they are always worth the wait!!
Thank you again...and again....and again
Rob and Wendy


Forex gains at my expense?

  • ianhkhi
  • 12/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Sat, 24/09/2011 - 12:50

Has anyone worked out the percentage return to date for US$ account holders?

[ng: Edited - please don't make derogatory remarks about other members]