ANOTHER VIEW AND ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL DIVIDEND OUTCOMES

  • yorkist
  • 01/07/09 31/05/09
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Posted: Tue, 27/07/2010 - 00:58

Hi Gordon,

Thanks for your recent updated analysis.

It has been a while since I posted anything but the recent releases of good news from both KSF IOM and KSF UK compelled me to put pen to paper again.

Anyway, I am attaching an excel spreadsheet, saved as pdf file, in which I’ve developed what I consider at this stage to best and more conservative cases for the potential dividend outcome for depositors.

With the recent new found monies (£49.3 million) due from KSF UK, I am coming up with a conservative estimate of 88.34% versus your own recent estimate of 89.94%.

My assumptions and sources for the figures are all included in the analysis and hopefully I’ve not missed anything. I’ve reverted to your earlier 80% outcome from the KSF IOM loan book but only projected this to the future recoveries from this source. I've also not attempted to come up with estimated timing of future dividends but can always add this later.

Hopefully, the soon to be forthcoming fuller update from the JLs will not blindside us with any negative developments.

I’d appreciate your input.

Regards,

Yorkist

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How long will it take?

  • Ohdear
  • 13/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Sat, 31/07/2010 - 17:54

Thanks for the updated table which the figures are easy to understand and follow. However it would be good to know the timeline? how long are we expected to wait before we have recovered maximum of our deposits? Will it be as far away as 2017? as some information seem to suggests?


Hi Yorkist - re your post

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Thu, 29/07/2010 - 20:48

Hi There,

Sorry for delay in getting back to you.

Firstly tremendous stuff by yourself in your table. you have used slightly tighter and more correct figures than myself.

Good to see our lower estimates were virtually the same at 88.34% and 89.94%. but it became clear to me after checking my figures against your own that I had miscalculated the returns expected from KSFUK by a + £25m circa. This means my lower estimate is now 87.205p/£, but still very close to your own.

I am hopeful our expected returns will be re-inforced or similar when I finalise my Table 9. but as you say we will have to wait and see whether or not the JLs fuller report will supply all the info required to allow a meaningful guess at the eventual total dividend and by when.

Once again, great stuff,

All the best,

Gordon 45


Future dividends

  • Brabander
  • 15/10/08 31/05/09
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  • Sat, 31/07/2010 - 14:09

It is always good to have more than one person analysing the figures provided by the JL's. The work you Ice and Yorkist have done is therefore most welcome. Thanks!
I agree with your assessment of the likely final outcome. To some extent this is also dependant on the general state of the economy during the next 2-3 years as this will impact on the performance of the KSFIOM and KSFUK loan books.

I have looked at the magnitude and timing of the likely next dividend.
This is based on the following assumptions:
1. During the next few months our JL's reach a compromise agreement with KSFUK at a level of £250m
2. Dividend payment from KSFUK of 10% on 28 July 10 (announced)
3. Disregard any additional payments from KSFUK re share collateral issues
4. Interest payments on loan book assumed to be offset by JL's costs and other charges
5. No loan book capital repayments during next 6 months (extremely unlikely)

Based on the assumed compromise of £250m KSFUK owes us a back payment of dividends equal to 35% of (£250m-£205m) = £15.75m. In addition KSFUK announced a dividend payment of 10% on 28th July which equates to 10% of £250m = £25m.
Payments from KSFUK to KSFIOM during the next few months should therefore total £40.75m this is equal to a dividend of 4.5%!

We have been informed in the last COI report that future dividend payments will be a minimum of 5%. I assume this to mean that once available funds (after allowing for working capital) exceed 5% that a dividend payment may be made but that this is not a "definite".

Since it is very likely that there will be additional loan book capital repayments during the next 6 months I believe that the next likely dividend payment (in Dec 10?) will be a minimum of 5% but may be as high as 10%.
Best wishes


@Brabander

  • IceCrusher
  • 14/10/08 25/10/11
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  • Mon, 02/08/2010 - 13:58

Hi Brabander,

Thank you!

The UK claim has been agreed (for now) at £250.2m and all future dividends will be paid as a percentage of that sum. The total UK dividend now stands at 45% of the claim so the back-payment is £250.2m - £205m = £45.2m and 45% of £45.2m = £20.34m. This includes the recent UK dividend announcement. See Report to Creditors page 21 para 6.4. That being so then the 10p/£ will have been paid on £205m = £20.5m. Grand total then: £20.34m + £20.5m = £40.84m.
Ice


Gordon 45, would you kindly

  • IceCrusher
  • 14/10/08 25/10/11
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  • Fri, 30/07/2010 - 04:33

Gordon 45, would you kindly provide comment on my queries to your earlier posting - see link

http://chat.ksfiomdepositors.org/forum-topic/ksfiom-v-ksfuk-further-thou...

Ice


Where there's life there's hope !

  • D RAM
  • 13/10/08 01/08/14
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  • Wed, 28/07/2010 - 10:14

Thanks so much for such a clear analysis. Let's hope the "best case" scenario is achieved ( or even better 100% recovery of the "amount admitted for dividend" by the JLs and then hopefully we can then recover the "deferred interest" ).


Many thanks for that succinct

  • peter and louise
  • 18/10/08 01/09/09
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  • Wed, 28/07/2010 - 06:53

Many thanks for that succinct analysis. The sun finally appears to be peeping through the clouds.


analysis of potential dividend

  • dodot
  • 10/10/08 01/06/13
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  • Tue, 27/07/2010 - 11:06

Many thanks for your very clearly presented analysis. It is very helpful to me and I am sure others.


I agree. This is a helpful

  • ianw
  • 14/10/08 n/a (free)
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  • Tue, 27/07/2010 - 14:24

I agree. This is a helpful analysis that clearly depicts the shape of the position. There's still scope for upside - the net £254.3 mio is quoted as the worst case net positon with KSF UK. Will be interesting to see the JLs report at the end of this month. Seems to me there's a reasonable chance of getting 100% return if the loan book is solid.

Understand there's an intent to pay dividends whenever reaching 5p or approx £45 mio of surplus funds in the bank. I'd find it very helpful to have a projected schedule for timing of dividend payments with this schedule updated, say every six months. KSF UK must have a good fix on their cashflow forecast, so given this information inconjunction with the KSF IOM loan book, the JLs should be able to produce a forecast.