To All - latest on Bank Website 15.2.2010 - cash balance &loan bok at 31.1.2010

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
  • a depositor
  • Offline
Posted: Mon, 15/02/2010 - 21:03

Hopefully the continuation of monthly updates on cash balance & loan book for KSFIOM on the Bank website.

Gordon 45

5
Your rating: None Average: 5 (7 votes)

Comment viewing options
Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.

Latest PWC update

  • Lostinspace
  • 13/10/08 31/05/09
  • a depositor
  • Offline
  • Tue, 16/02/2010 - 19:18

Thanks Gordon....

Will you be doing your usual excellent, thorough analysis on this updated balance sheet etc etc?

ie any improvement on 82 - 92p re your last report?

Thanks in advance!

LIS


Hi lostinspace

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
  • a depositor
  • Offline
  • Tue, 16/02/2010 - 20:59

Thanks for your question.

Although I am grateful that we might now be getting some form of monthly updates from the JLs - a Cash Balance Statement and Loan book update - they are helpful including the loans by currency, but the movements over the one month would make a miniscule difference to my Table No.8 calculations. Because the increase in Cash is more than offset by the lowering of Capital due, between 2010 - 2016. So the gain is more than offset by the lowering of hopefully future returns. So sorry no change to my previous estimates of betwen 82.5% - 92.15% at this time.

I am hoping that next month we may get a more full detailed statement like the one issued on 11.12.2009 (so perhaps two monthly statements then a third larger more detailed statement every third month).

Still no reply to my list of questions that I put on at the same time as my Table No.8 either from the JLs or the 4 reps on the COI (and I know that at least the two DST reps were sent copies) . I do intend to phone the JLs this week.

Re returns, as I said in my Table No. 8 covering data our three remaining sources of repayment are KSFIOM loan book, KSFIOM Interest on the Loans and KSFUK unsecured loans due back to us. That is if we exclude, Litigation, Parental Guarantee etc. So we will now have longer periods of inactivity between the larger statements by the JLs, any info on Dividends from them and the six monthly update to creditors from KSFUK - next one due in April 2010 - and any info from them on Dividends back to KSFIOM. The one thing that will be helpful from KSFUK is the next Dividend due in April/May this year. Once we know the p/£ given out and the actual sum of cash returned we will be able to work out exactly if we are still receiving 60% back per dividend, or if perhaps it has gone higher or lower.

But back to the update from the JLs on the 15.2.2010 for info up to 31.1.2010, there are certain things in there that interest me, from a worrying viewpoint if you analyse the figures. I do intend to put a post on the DAG tonight or by this week-end as to my concerns. That is why we need the more detailed report next month so we can see more of the cost figures, including those paid and still unpaid along with answers to the questions I raised (again mainly re costs).

There is also a concern to me, at least, with regard to the KSFIOM Loan Book returns. £23.6m was moved back from 2009 to 2010 (although £48m came in early last year) and if you analyse the movement over the last month the returns for 2010 are worryingly disapppointing. Although the JL I spoke to in mid Jan 2010 did say there was no even pattern over the year regarding loans due for repayment or for interest due on loans.

Sorry if I am not giving out better vibes, but returns are now so dependent upon what we get back from the above three main areas and no real handle on total costs expected by the JLs. They have not moved from their conservative £15m but spent £8m in year 1, that is why I moved my estimates up from around £17.5m to around £21m and that might be too conservative also.

So hope to do a post probably now later in the week on the info issued on 15.2.2010 and explain my views that you and others may agree or not agree with.

Take care,

Gordon 45


@Gordon45

  • grapow
  • 20/10/08 31/05/09
  • unspecified
  • Offline
  • Wed, 17/02/2010 - 11:29

May I add our thanks to the many previous for your valuable help in this matter.

I must admit that I failed to factor that your calcs appear to take loss of capital (and presumably interest?) into account over any recovery period.

If we were to ignore both of these items, do you have a ball park for eventual % recovery versus deposit @ 10/2008?

Emotionally I think my wife and I would feel better thinking of it in such simple terms?


Hi grapow

  • Gordon 45
  • 22/10/08 n/a (free)
  • a depositor
  • Offline
  • Wed, 17/02/2010 - 22:17

Hi There,

My thoughts to you based on your question, if I read it correctly is:

1 I am now using the lower estimated returns given by the JLs on their 11.12.2009 statements in my Table No.8. There are:

a. Loan Book lower estimate of 83.92%. higher estimate was 100% ( this includes estimated gains from FX gains).
Loan book interest lower estimate of 95.6%. Note higher estimate was around 100% So I used their lower estimates. Just cannot see 100% on loan book based on £2.6m 'write off' so far and the 4 loans causing concern that I reckon will cause a £5.5m loss, plus the rescheduling of £23.6m loans due on 2009 to 2010 (bad news to me, even with the JL saying returns are not spread evenly across the year.

b. I've stuck by the 60% recovery ex KSFUK (on the unsecured loans based on £229m. I know a figure of £233.5m was shown, again in the 11.12.2009 statements against KSFUK (bottom right hand corner - I have ignored this slightly higher figure at present).

  1. So I'm saying based on the above we could expect a recovery of £827.925m (my table No.8).
  • That takes no account of litigation, 'Parental Guarantee' etc
  • Takes no account of total costs ( I now estimate at least £21.3m - could be higher).
  • So £827.925m x 100 divide by £906.2m(8.10.2008) = 91.36%
  1. If you take the JLs higher estimates of returns on KSFIOM loan book (includes any gains on FX transactions) and interest on loan book, plus take returns on unsecured loans ex KSFUK at their Liquidators higher estimate of 75% you would add the following;
  • KSFIOM loan book £52.064m
  • KSFIOM interest on loan book £1.3m
  • KSFUK 75% return on £229m £ 34.350m

  • Gives a total of £ 87.714m

  • Add the £827.925m
    = £915.639m x 100 divide by £909m = 100.730%

But remember:

  • That assumes the higher level of estimated returns by PWC & E&Y
  • It does not allow for total costs of at least £21.3m (I think), could be higher
  • It allows for no recovery from Litigation, 'Parental Guarantee' etc
  • It allows for no interest on payments to Habana claimants if they win their appeal ( I think that could be around £7.7m)
  • It takes no account of claim by Tchenguiz Bros of £2.26b against Kaupthing hf that could affect 'parental Guarantee' to KSFUK and therefore affect our returns ex them
  • And to me anyway it assumes a 100% return on KSFIOM loan book and interest - no chance in my mind. I think a max of 90% will be nearer the mark on the loan book, but do think if interest returns hold up in 2010 & 2011 we could get between 95.6 - 100%.

Grapow, hope the above helps and that I have read your question correctly. If not get back to me and I will try again,

Take care,

Gordon 45


Thanks Gordon 45

  • grapow
  • 20/10/08 31/05/09
  • unspecified
  • Offline
  • Thu, 18/02/2010 - 09:03

Yes that helps, a lot, many thanks.