DCS and SOA calculations and timescale

If i include all classes of creditor as per MS figures, there are 11,000 plus.

a)40% of these have less than 10,000
b)A further 14% have less than 20,000
c)A further 20% have less than 50,000
d)Leaving 26% with more than 50,000

The amount needed to pay them all now under DCS is:-

a)-4,400x10,000=44million
b)--1500x20,000=30million
c)--2200x50,000=110million
d)--2800x50000=140million
Total = 324million(this assumes that all have exactly 10,20,50000--a, b and c which is clearly untrue) so the figure is overstated by a margin--guessing i would say at least 20million.

The EPS2 provided 10,000 per "customer" and it is interesting to note that if you take the total number from above--10,900 and times 10,000=109million which is close to the IOMT figure.

MS has 140 million plus 36 due in cds.---add the 150million from IOMG loan gives 326 million.

Under DCS banks must give 2x9million=18 million.(2 years contributions--4/09 and 4/10).

MS stated figures for the loan book maturity which would be added this year--can't remember exactly but significant.

As I see it we would all get up to 50,000 NOW except for the fact that IOMG will not ring fence the 150million loan if another bank fails

Why under SOA will it take 2 years from????June???? or if you like 2 years and 9 months from D(disaster) Day?

Of course, under either scheme now(DCS hastily amended) they will get every penny of their EPS loan back from the first installment except perhaps the gratuitous payment to bond holders(20 million!)

High value depositors would get more over 2years under SOA perhaps but I would bet they would rather have the 50,000 now than 30 % in that time(at least the majority) .

Anyone got any comments please--maybe my logic is flawed.

Fascinated by the prospect of the vote--unless it is rigged in some way, it will crystalize the last 6 months of discussion and arguement on this site and elsewhere.

4.4
Your rating: None Average: 4.4 (15 votes)